150429_PC21_Study_Results_Coal_Retirement

150429_PC21_Study_Results_Coal_Retirement

PC21 Coal Retirement Study TAS/TEPPC Nov. 2015 WECC System Adequacy Planning W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 2 Study Requestors Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies (CEERT) Natural Resource Defense Council (NRDC) PacifiCorp (PAC)* State and Provincial Steering Committee (SPSC) Scenario Planning Steering Group (SPSG) Western Grid Group (WGG) Western Interconnection Regional Advisory Body (WIRAB) *PAC later withdrew from study request when scope was changed to indefinitely postpone a reliability analysis. W

E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 3 Overview Study Description Scope Input assumptions Study qualifications Study Results Details Generation Paths Other Observations W E S

T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 4 Study Description W E S T E R N E L E C

T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 5 Study Description - Purpose Model a scenario that approaches the 2024 trajectory of reducing carbon emissions to 80% below the 2005 levels by 2050. Western Interconnection CO2 (million metric tons) 400 350 300 248 in 2024 250 200 150 100 50 0 05 008 011 014 017 020 023 026 029 032 035 038 041 044 047 050 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 W E

S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 6 Study Description - Assumptions Modeling assumptions include: Retirement of several high CO2 intensity coal-fired generators based on vintage and location Addition of renewable resources (wind + solar) Additional energy efficiency Addition of gas-fired generation Addition of energy storage resources More details on next slides W E S T E R

N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 7 PC21 Additional Coal Retirements AB AZ CA CO Battle River 4,5 [537] Apache 2,3 [350] ACE Cogen [103] Comanche 1,2 [660] Genesse 2 [390] Cholla 1,3 [387] Argus 8,9

[50] Craig 1,2 [863] Sheerness 1,2 [780] Coronado 1 [380] Casterville [1] Hayden 1,2 [446] Sundance 3 [362] H.W. Sundt 4 [156] Fellow [1] M Drake 5,6,7 [254] Navajo 2,3 [1500] Jackson Valley [21] Nucla 1-4 [100] Lassen [22] R D Nixon 1 [208] MT UT Colstrip 1,2,3 [1354] NM Four Corners 4,5 [1540] WY Huntington 1,2 [909] Dave Johnston 1-4 [762] Intermountain 1,2 [1800] Jim Bridger 1,2,3 [1581] KUCC 1-4 [175] Naughton 1,2 [357] Sunnyside [53] Neil Simpson 2 [80]

Wygen 1,2 [180] NV Wyodak [340] WA Mt Poso [35] N Valmy 2 [268] Phillips Carbon [16] TS Power 1 [227] Centralia 2 [688] Portland Cement [28] Port of Stockton [44] W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N

A T I N G 8 PC01 Common Case Coal Retirements [6418 MW] AB AZ CA CO Battle River 3 [148] Cholla 2 [262] RioBravo Jasm [35] Arapahoe 3,4 [153] HR Milner [144] Four Corners 1-3 [560] Cherokee 3 [152] Sundance 1,2 [576] Navajo 1 [750] Lamar 4,6 [38] Valmont 5 [184] MT UT JE Corette [153] WY Carbon 1,2 [172] Neil Simpson 1 [18] Osage 1-3 [30] NM San Juan 2,3 [839] WN Clark 1,2 [40] NV

WA Reid Gardner 1-4 [587] Centralia 1 [688] Valmy 1 [254] OR Boardman [610] W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 9 PC21 Coal Retirements by State/Province pen

PC01 Energy (GWh) 3500 35,000 3000 30,000 2500 25,000 2000 20,000 1500 15,000 1000 10,000 500 5,000 0 W E AB S T AZ E R N CA E L CO E C MT T R C I O NM C U I T Y N C I NV C L UT

O O WA R D I 0 WY N A T I N G 10 Replacement Sources The Retired MWh represents the energy produced by the PC21 retired coal resources in the 2024 v1.5 common case. The EE energy was modeled as a load reduction and resulted in a total reduction of about 1700 GWh. W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D

I N A T I N G 11 Study Qualifications Path Ratings: The WECC paths associated with a few of the retired generators and their replacements would likely need to be rerated through the path rating process. No changes in path or branch ratings were assumed for this study. Constraints: Other operating constraints and nomograms were also not modified. Flexibility Reserves: The flexibility reserve adders for each reserve area are derived from the loads and amount of variable generation. The flexibility reserve adders were not recalculated for this study. Resource Adequacy: A check of the peak planning reserve margins was not done. System Stability: Tests of system stability were not conducted. W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N

A T I N G 12 Results W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 13 Dump Energy Generation that is chosen by the PSM model for commitment and dispatch for a least-cost solution may be dumped if its dispatch will

break a modeling constraint regarding generation, transmission, reserves, and/or nomograms. Reserves Constraints Nomograms Deliverable W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O Cost O R D I N A T I N G 14 WECC Annual Generation by Category (MWh) Category Conventional Hydro Energy Storage Steam - Coal Steam - Other Nuclear

Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine IC Other DG/DR/EE - Incremental Biomass RPS Geothermal Small Hydro RPS Solar Wind == Total == Other Results Var. Prod. Cost (M$) CO2 Cost (M$) CO2 Amount (MMetrTn) Dump Energy (MWh) Pumping (PL+PS) (MWh) Exports (MWh) W E S 238,955,786 3,592,412 227,755,474 2,637,910 56,254,786 278,957,656 51,794,128 818,909 3,365,280 17,916,707 19,581,287 31,937,139 4,360,054 38,182,163 74,232,546 2024 PC21 Coal Retirement 238,954,523 4,234,671 103,968,480 3,478,834 56,580,716 317,216,625 75,187,489 1,535,373 3,325,530 17,913,196 19,853,756 31,703,260 4,355,474 56,992,045 112,065,464 1,050,342,237 1,047,365,437 (2,976,799) 22,843 1,730 363 357,799 15,426,008 5,364,720 22,200 945 277 1,480,898 16,257,342 5,364,720 (643)

(784) (86) 1,123,098 831,334 0 2024 PC1 v1.5 T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I Difference From New Gen 0 269,923 0 0 0 2,409,645 1,801,747 0 0 Load side 0 0 0 18,820,604 38,636,263 61,938,182 (1,264) 642,259 (123,786,995) 840,925 325,930 38,258,969 23,393,361 716,464 (39,750) (3,511) 272,469 (233,878) (4,580) 18,809,882 37,832,919 C L O

O -1,731,070 629,356 R D I N A T I N G 15 Category Change Estimated/Actual W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A

T I N G 16 W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 17 Generation Comparison W E

S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 18 Difference in Annual Energy - WECC W E S T E R N E L E

C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 19 2024 CO2 PC21 Coal Retirement Case Goal PC01 PC21 Western Interconnection CO2 (million metric tons) 400 350 300 PC21 277 Goal Short 29 250 200 248 150 100 50 0 05 008 011 014 017 020 023 026 029 032 035 038 041 044 047 050 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 20 Generation Change by State and Fuel W E S T

E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 21 W E S T E R N E L E C T

R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 22 This was the only replacement ES unit that had any significant operation. The others didnt seem to reach the price thresholds. W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L

O O R D I N A T I N G 23 WECC Paths W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T

I N G 24 Top 15 Heavily Utilized in PC21 W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 25 Comparison of Net Annual Flow Top 15 U90 W E

S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 26 PC-21 Heavily Utilized Paths P83 Montana Alberta Tie Line Path P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie P52 Silver PeakControl 55 kV P83 Montana Alberta Tie Line 75% 90% 99% 38% 25%

18% 34% 23% 0% 20% 11% 7% P52 Silver Peak-Control P60 Inyo-Control W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 27

Path 8 The retirement of the base load generation at Colstrip 1,2,3 had an impact on the Path 8 flows. It is also possible that the path rating would be reduced. W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 28 Path 65+66 (COI plus PDCI) W E S T E

R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 29 Path 27 In the past a nomogram has been used to define a relationship between generation and path 27 flows. The nomogram was not modified to specify how the replacement generation in Utah would be treated with respect to southern California. W E S T E R N E L E C

T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 30 Path 46 W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I

C L O O R D I N A T I N G 31 More Results W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N

A T I N G 32 WECC Peak Week W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 33 WECC Peak Hour PC21 W

E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 34 WECC Early April W E S T E R N E

L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 35 Dump Energy 4/7/24 PC21 Dump Sunday 4/7 Hr 12 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 W E AZPS S T E R CIPV N E L E C CISC

T R C I O C U I T Y N C I CISD C L O O R D IID I N A T I N G 36 Peak hour on April 2 WECC PC21 W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I

C L O O R D I N A T I N G 37 California Peak Week W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N

A T I N G 38 California Early April The gaps between the demand and generation represent energy imports. The hours where the generation exceeds the demand represents exports. W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 39

W E S T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 40 Observations The PC21 study had no unserved load. PC21 CO2 was 29 million metric tons short of goal Overall energy from PC01 CC and CT units increased Overall energy from remaining coal units increased Share of annual energy from renewable resources is 23.1% in PC21 vs. 17.7% in PC01 Poor performance of PC21 pump storage projects except for project added in SRP area W E S

T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G 41 Contact Stan Holland Holland Stan Western Electricity Electricity Coordinating Coordinating Council Council Western Senior Engineer Engineer Senior [email protected] [email protected] (801) 883-6858 883-6858 (801) W E S

T E R N E L E C T R C I O C U I T Y N C I C L O O R D I N A T I N G

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