A Report on the Economic Analysis: Incidence of the 1996 ...
Assessment of Quotas, Tariffs and Taxes on the U.S. - Canada Softwood Lumber Dispute Patrick Shannon March 10, 2008 ECON 543 Background U.S. Canada softwood lumber tariffs
since 1840 U.S. claims that the Canadian lumber industry is unfairly subsidized by the federal and provincial governments Stumpage fee is set administratively rather than through a competitive
auction Types of Dispute Mechanisms Tariff on all Canadian imports to U.S. Quota-regulated tariff on all Canadian imports (including tax)
Tariff on Imports Different percentage tariffs in the past 2002, U.S. imposed a 27.2% tariff on all Canadian imports of softwood lumber
Based on a countervailing and antidumping duty Projected Economic Impacts Title: Market and Resource Impacts of a Canadian Lumber Tariff
Author: Darius M. Adams Journal: Journal of Forestry. 2003, 101: 48-52 Analysis Method
Spatial model to calculate projections of production, consumption, prices and trade between the U.S. and Canada Accounts for elasticity and price sensitivity of the markets Compares projections without and with a tariff
Data Source Historical government and industry data Elasticities are based on econometric estimates derived from historical data
Supply and Demand Projections Market Impacts Global Impact of the Tariff Title: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of U.S.-Canadian Disputes on the World Softwood Lumber Market
Author: Stephen Devadoss et al. Journal: Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics. 2005 Analysis Spatial equilibrium model to estimate
supply and demand functions Impacts of the tariff on global prices, demand, supply, total trade volume and bilateral trade flows Welfare analysis
Results Global Trade Impacts Welfare Impacts: Producer Surplus U.S. = $1.92 billion South America = $450 million
All other countries negative Canada = -$932 million Welfare Impacts: Consumer Surplus
U.S. = -$2.90 billion South America = -$366 million European Union = $870 million World Welfare
Total producer and consumer surpluses are negative 27.2% tariff results in -$860 million Quota-Regulated Tariff (Export tax)
1996 Softwood Lumber Agreement Quota of 14.7 billion board feet Exports up to 650 million board feet more assessed a fee of $50 per 1,000 board feet (mbf) Exports exceeding that tier would be assessed $10 per mbf thereafter Economic Analysis
Author: Daowei Zhang Title: Welfare impacts of the 1996 United StatesCanada softwood lumber (trade) agreement
Journal: Canadian Journal of Forestry, 31: 19581967. Welfare Impacts 1996 - 2001 Welfare Impacts U.S. Producers gain = $7.74 billion
Consumers loose = -$12.5 billion Net U.S. loss = -$4.7 billion Welfare Impacts Canada Producers gain = $2.86 billion
Treasury gain = $226 million Net gain = $3.09 billion Conclusions Ongoing trade dispute, solutions hard to find
Quota-regulated tariff benefited Canada and U.S. producers Global lumber trade
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