Advancing climate Prediction: The Climate Test Bed

Advancing climate Prediction: The Climate Test Bed

Research Topics Research Topics AO NCEP AO Co-PI NCEP LOI Co-PI LOI Proposal Proposal Reanalysis / Reanalysis / Reforecasts Reforecasts Earth System Earth System Modeling Modeling Tropical Tropical oscillations oscillations Model Model physics physics Etc. Etc. The Climate Test Bed R2O R2O Research Research Climate Forecast Operations Operations Improved Improved products and products services and services Climate Forecast Products Products MME MME CFS Improvements CFS Improvements O2R O2R Joint JointNCEP-CPO NCEP-CPO facility [email protected] @NCEP NCEP Established Establishedin in 2005 2005 Serves Servesas asconduit conduit between the between the operational, operational, academic academicand and research research communities communities Mission Mission To Toaccelerate acceleratethe thetransition transitionof ofscientific scientific advances advancesfrom fromthe theclimate climateresearch research community communityto toimproved improvedNOAA NOAAclimate climate forecast forecastproducts productsand andservices. services. CTB CTBembraces embracesthe

theR2O R2Oand andO2R O2Rparadigms paradigms CTB CTBemphasizes emphasizeshigh highprofile profilescience scienceactivities activities CFS*/GFS** CFS*/GFS**improvements improvements Multi-model ensembles Multi-model ensembles Climate Climateforecast forecastproducts products Competitive CompetitiveGrants GrantsProgram Program CTB CTBSeminar SeminarSeries Series CPC-RISA CPC-RISAProgram Program Distinguished DistinguishedVisiting VisitingScientist ScientistProgram Program(FY09) (FY09) *CFS Climate Forecast System **GFS Global Forecast System 1 Climate Test Bed Currently Funded Projects FY06 FY06 FY07 FY07 FY08 FY08 1.1. Using UsingInitial Initialtendency tendencyerrors errorsto toreduce reducesystematic systematicerrors, errors,identify identifymodel modelerrors, errors,and and construct stochastic parameterizations (DelSol) (Transition: FY08) construct stochastic parameterizations (DelSol) (Transition: FY08) 2.2. Development Developmentof ofneural neuralnetwork networkemulations emulationsof ofmodel modelphysics physicscomponents componentsfor for improving the computational performance of the NCEP seasonal climate forecasts improving the computational performance of the NCEP seasonal climate forecasts (Fox-Rabinovitz) (Fox-Rabinovitz)(FY08) (FY08)

3.3. The TheOcean OceanComponent Componentof ofthe theNCEP NCEPENSO ENSOCFS CFS(McPhaden/Xue/Behringer) (McPhaden/Xue/Behringer)(FY08) (FY08) 4.4. System-wide System-wideadvancement advancementof ofuser-centric user-centricclimate climateforecast forecastproducts products (Hartmann/OLenic) (FY09) (Hartmann/OLenic) (FY09) 5.5. Probabilistic Probabilisticforecasts forecastsof ofextreme extremeevents eventsand andweather weatherhazards hazardsover overthe theUnited UnitedStates States (Jones/Gottschalck) (FY09) (Jones/Gottschalck) (FY09) 6.6. Enabling Enablingthe theTransition Transitionof ofCPC CPCProducts Productsto toGIS GISFormat Format(Doty/Silva/Halpert) (Doty/Silva/Halpert)(FY09) (FY09) 7.7. Generation Generationand andEvaluation Evaluationof ofLong-Term Long-TermRetrospective RetrospectiveForecasts Forecastswith withNCEP NCEPClimate Climate Forecast System: Predictability of ENSO and Drought (Cane/Wang/Xue) (FY10) Forecast System: Predictability of ENSO and Drought (Cane/Wang/Xue) (FY10) 8.8. Multi-Model Multi-ModelEnsemble EnsembleClimate ClimatePrediction Predictionwith withCCSM CCSMand andCFS CFS(Kirtman/van (Kirtman/vanden denDool) Dool) (FY10) (FY10) 9.9. Development Developmentof ofan anExtended Extendedand andLong-range Long-rangePrecipitation PrecipitationPrediction PredictionSystem Systemover over the Pacific Islands (Annamalai/Kumar) (FY10) the Pacific Islands (Annamalai/Kumar) (FY10) 10. 10. New NewTools Toolsfor forNorth NorthAmerican AmericanDrought DroughtPrediction Prediction(Lyon/Kumar) (Lyon/Kumar)(FY10) (FY10) 2 Boards Oversight OversightBoard

Board NCEP NCEPCPC CPCDirector Director Wayne WayneHiggins, Higgins,Chair Chair NCEP NCEPEMC EMCDirector Director Steve SteveLord Lord ESRL ESRLDeputy DeputyDirector Director Science ScienceAdvisory AdvisoryBoard Board Provide Provideindependent independentscientific scientific advice, broad direction, advice, broad direction,and and endorsement of ongoing endorsement of ongoingand and planned plannedactivities activities Randy RandyDole, Dole,Acting Acting Vacant Vacant GFDL GFDLDirector Director IRI IRIDirector Director Steve SteveZebiak Zebiak NCPO NCPORepresentative Representative NASA NASAEarth EarthSciences SciencesDirector Director Rick RickRosen Rosen Franco FrancoEinaudi Einaudi Appropriate Appropriaterepresentatives representativesof of other stakeholders (e.g. NASA other stakeholders (e.g. NASA Earth EarthSciences SciencesDirector) Director) T.T.Barnston Barnston(IRI) (IRI) T.T.Busalacchi Busalacchi(ESSIC,

(ESSIC,University Universityof of Maryland) Maryland)- -Chair Chair J.J.Kinter Kinter(COLA) (COLA) M. M.Harrison Harrison(UKMO) (UKMO) E. E.Harrison Harrison(PMEL) (PMEL) Tony TonyRosati Rosati(GFDL) (GFDL) Joe JoeTribbia Tribbia(NCAR) (NCAR) D. D.Lettenmaier Lettenmaier(University (Universityof of Washington) Washington) K. K.Redmond Redmond(DRI) (DRI) M. M.Suarez Suarez(GMAO) (GMAO) 3 Strategic Priority: CFS Improvements Goal Goal To Toaccelerate accelerateevaluation evaluationof ofand andimprovements improvementsto tothe theoperational operational Climate ClimateForecast ForecastSystem System(CFS) (CFS) to toenhance enhanceits itsuse useas asaaskillful skillfultool toolin in providing providingNCEPs NCEPsclimate climatepredictions predictionsfor forusers usersto toaddress addresstodays todays problems problemsand andplan planfor fortomorrow tomorrow CFS CFSV1 V1implemented implementedin in2004 2004 Atmosphere Atmosphere&&ocean oceanDA DA Real Realtime timecoupled coupled9-month 9-month forecasts forecasts 25 25years yearsof ofhindcasts hindcasts CFS CFSV2 V2(2010) (2010) CFS Implemented Increases Increasesinin skill skillofofCPC CPC official

official outlooks outlooks(20% (20% orormore more (OLenic et al (OLenic et al 07); 07);due dueinin part parttotoCFS CFS&& CTB CTB CFS CFSReanalysis Reanalysis&&Reforecast Reforecast (CFSRR) (CFSRR)project project(ongoing) (ongoing) Coupled CoupledO-A-L-Sea O-A-L-SeaIce IceDA DA 1979-2009 1979-2009 Coupled Coupledreforecasts reforecastsinitialized initialized from fromcoupled coupledreanalysis, reanalysis,198119812009 2009 Focus Focusareas areasfor forCFS CFSImprovements Improvements Dynamics Dynamics Physics Physics Coupled CoupledOcean OceanAtmosphere AtmosphereLand LandCryosphere Cryosphere 4 Multi-Model Ensembles Goal Goal AA multi multimodel modelensemble ensembleprediction predictionsystem systemthat thatleverages leveragesthe the best bestnational nationaland andinternational internationalmodels modelsfor forimproved improved predictions predictionson onintraseasonal-to-interannual intraseasonal-to-interannualtime timescales scales Activities Activities Consolidation Consolidationtechniques techniques Verification Verification MME MMEPrediction PredictionSystem System IMME IMME(NCEP,ECMWF,Meteo-France, (NCEP,ECMWF,Meteo-France,&&UKMET) UKMET) NMME NMME(NCEP,GFDL,NASA,NCAR) (NCEP,GFDL,NASA,NCAR) Collaboration Collaborationwith withNSF, NSF,NCAR, NCAR,COLA, COLA,NCEP, NCEP, GFDL,

GFDL,and andCPO CPO(and (andIRI, IRI,CLIVAR CLIVARin infuture) future) 5 Climate Forecast Products Goal Goal To Toprovide providereliable reliableclimate climateforecast forecastproducts productsthat thatare areresponsive responsiveto tothe the needs needsof ofusers usersand andincorporate incorporatestate-of-the-art state-of-the-artscience scienceand andresearch. research. Relationships Relationshipswith withpartners partners Delivery of useful products Delivery of useful products Continuous Continuousflow flowof ofuser userrequirements requirements Strong research component Strong research component Activities Activities Forecast ForecastEvaluation EvaluationTool Tool(FET) (FET) Forecast Forecastevaluation; evaluation;data dataaccess accessand and display capability display capability GIS GIS(including (includingin inGRADS) GRADS) Drought Drought(NIDIS) (NIDIS)products products Extreme Extremeevents eventsproducts products(through (throughCPCCPCRISA collaboration) RISA collaboration) 6 CTB Seminar Series For 2008-2009 Schedule of Speakers 7 CTB Progress since 4th CTB SAB Meeting NMME NMME Nov Nov17 17meeting meetingwith withNSF, NSF,NCAR, NCAR,COLA, COLA,GSFC, GSFC,GFDL, GFDL,NCEP NCEPto

todevelop developaa strategy strategy White Whitepaper paperwith withoperational operationaland andresearch researchrequirements requirements Post Postdoc docat atCOLA COLAto toevaluate evaluateMME MMEwith withGFDL GFDL&&NCEP NCEP Engaging Engagingexternal externalmodeling modelingcommunity community Planning PlanningCFS CFSusers usersworkshop workshop Routine Routineinteractions interactionswith withCLIVAR, CLIVAR,CPPA, CPPA,ARCs, ARCs,etc. etc. Planning Planningpost-doc post-docat atGFDL GFDLto toevaluate evaluateCFS CFSphysics physicsin inGFDL GFDLmodels models Expanding ExpandingCPC-RISA CPC-RISAprogram programto todevelop developaauser userrequirements requirements process for developing climate products process for developing climate products Support Supportfor forjoint jointCPC-CBRFC-OHD CPC-CBRFC-OHDproposal proposalto todevelop developdrought drought monitoring & forecast products in support of NIDIS Pilot for monitoring & forecast products in support of NIDIS Pilot forthe theUpper Upper Colorado ColoradoRiver RiverBasin Basin Working Workingwith withWRCC WRCCto toprovide provideCFS CFSdata datafor foruse usein indeveloping developing vegetation stress index vegetation stress index 8

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