A.M. Best Rating: Rating Methodology

GEORGIA IASA ASSOCIATION EDUCATIONAL CONFERENCE A.M. Bests Stochastic BCAR model Updated discussion of potential changes and timeline October 26, 2015 Raju Bohra, EVP Willis Re Analytics [email protected] (212) 915-8444 A.M. Best Rating: Rating Methodology A.M. Best looks at three Enterprise Risk Management key areas in the rating analysis The level of importance of B a Operating Business Performance Profile l a n c e S h e e t each the three areas to the overall rating can vary depending upon the rating level, and composite ERM is the link between these areas 2 A.M. Best Rating: Balance Sheet Evaluation Balance Sheet Capitalization (BCAR) Underwriting leverage Reinsurance utilization Reserve adequacy Investment composition

Financial flexibility Cash flow & liquidity Capitalization is the foundation for assessing the credit quality BCAR (factor based model) considers how well surplus is able to support premium, reserve, & credit risks Pro: Considers multiple risks Con: Difficult to calculate Underwriting leverage metrics (e.g. NPW to surplus, recoverables to surplus) Pro: Easy to calculate & understand Con: Does not differentiate between the riskiness of the business 3 A.M. Bests Ratings Bests Capital Adequacy Ratio BCAR Calculation: Economic view of surplus (numerator) Reported Surplus Fixed income equity Equity in unearned premium reserves DAC Adjustment Capital to support risks (denominator)

Investment risk: Converting to cash Credit risk: Converting to cash Premium risk: Pricing errors Reserve risk: Reserving deficiencies Business risk 4 A.M. Bests Ratings BCAR Score Adjusted Statutory Surplus Policyholders Surplus Positive Adjustments Statutory UPR Equity (net of taxes) Loss Reserve Equity (net of taxes) Fixed Income Equity (net of taxes) 36,651,796 Economic View of Surplus (aka Adjusted Surplus) How much capital you have Subtotal Negative Adjustments Surplus Note Base Cat Load Subtotal 636,454 2,957,484 2,382,367 5,976,305 BCAR = Capital Needed for Risks Adjusted Statutory Surplus Net Required Capital Asset Risk B1 - Fixed Income Risk B2 - Equity Risk B3 - Interest Rate Risk B4 - Credit Risk (aka Required Capital) How much capital you need Underwriting Risk B5 - Reserve Risk B6 - Premium Risk Required capital (denominator) is changing in new BCAR B7- Business Risk

Gross Required Capital Covariance Net Required Capital 268,872 448,985 717,857 41,910,245 1,641,809 5,409,130 1,421,784 1,591,365 16,844,371 5,159,599 18,238 32,086,296 (12,770,344) 5 19,315,952 A.M. Bests Stochastic BCAR Goals & Objectives Incorporate stochastic (probabilistic simulation) modeling in BCAR Select capital factors on a more consistent basis Currently based on a variety of risk measures, return periods, and time frames Maintain the general structure used in the current BCAR model Capital factors more directly tied to probability of default More sophisticated approach than currently being used Economic view of capital: mark-to-market, PV of reserves, & UPR equity Risk categories: B1- B7 & catastrophe charge Covariance: sum of the squares rule Not looking to disrupt the industry overall

However, individual rating units could show a significant change New scores will be lower than current but will adjust ratings scale 6 A.M. Bests Stochastic BCAR Developing Capital Factors Current approaches underlying the capital factors Premium & reserves: 1% expected policyholder deficit (EPD) Fixed income investments: probability of ruin Reinsurance recoverables: 5 year default rates Catastrophe: Wind 1-100 PML & Quake 1-250 PML (similar to VaR) New approach underlying Stochastic based capital factors Risk measure: Value-at-Risk, e.g. VaR (have moved away from TVaR) Return period: 5 confidence intervals: 1-50yrs, 1-100yrs, 1-200yrs, 1-500yrs, and 1-1000yrs Time frame: vary by risk category from 1 year to ultimate Confidence levels to vary by rating level Capital requirements for higher rating levels will be based on higher confidence levels While A.M. Best has been clear that no final decisions have been made, companies potentially could see significant shifts in their BCAR score. Draft criteria and parameters are expected to be released early next year along with draft BCAR scores. 7 A.M. Bests Stochastic BCAR Preliminary Changes Fixed income investments Reflects more granular credit quality, duration, volatility of default, recovery rates, & present value of net defaults Common equity investments Reflects historic market volatility and company specific portfolio Beta Interest rate risk Test 210 bps to 310 bps change adjusted for liquidity need Reinsurance recoverables Reflects credit quality, type of recoverable, concentration, duration, recovery rates, & net present value Premium & reserves

Reflects 21 Schedule P lines, 4 size categories, 4 correlation matrices Higher charges for WC, GL, MPL, and lower for Auto Catastrophe charge Occurrence (OEP) all peril (Wind + EQ) VaR basis (similar to PML) Will continue stress test approach using second event (e.g. 1-100 for Wind) Move charge from adjusted policyholder surplus to net required capital The breadth of proposed changes impacts almost every aspect of the BCAR model. Companies should evaluate their risk profiles to understand significant impacts. 8 A.M. Bests Stochastic BCAR Potential Impacts Willis Re has studied the impacts of the risks that will potentially drive new BCAR required capital for companies Risk charges that could significantly increase include: Bond default risk for portfolios with longer durations or lower credit quality UW risks (premium and reserves) for smaller lines of business Stock market risk, especially for portfolios with Beta > 1 Credit risk for long-tail recoverables (e.g., casualty lines) or with a concentration of counter-parties Catastrophe risk in specific perils and zones (e.g., Mid-Atlantic and Northeast windstorm, and Midwest EQ) Also companies whose risk profile exhibits greater tail risk at higher confidence levels may have difficulty at the higher end of the rating scale Impacts will ultimately depend on the selected risk metric, confidence level (return period), and time horizons A.M. Best promulgates in their final criteria. 9 Model Capital Factor Impact: Asset Risk Charges Average Risk Factors of Sample PC Companies A.M Best updated Asset Risk charges for bonds and stocks which are

still subject to change before finalized Current PC 1-50Yr (VaR 98) US Gov't 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% NAIC Class 1 Bonds 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 2.4% NAIC Class 2 Bonds 2.0% 5.4% 6.2% 6.8% 7.5% 8.4% NAIC Class 3 Bonds 4.0% 10.0% 11.0%

11.8% 12.8% 13.7% NAIC Class 4 Bonds 4.5% 23.3% 24.7% 25.8% 27.0% 27.8% NAIC Class 5 Bonds 10.0% 37.6% 38.3% 38.9% 39.5% 39.9% NAIC Class 6 Bonds 30.0% 45.5% 46.6% 47.5% 48.3% 49.2% 1.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.3% 2.7% 3.1%

15.0% 33.9% 39.1% 43.8% 47.3% 48.3% Asset Risk Factor For: Total Bonds Public Common Stock 1-100Yr 1-200Yr 1-500Yr 1-1000Yr (VaR 99) (VaR 99.5) (VaR 99.8) (VaR 99.9) Source: A.M. Best, reflect average 4 year maturity Bond charges relatively unchanged for Govt and Class 1 but increase for lower quality, however not a great impact due to varying confidence levels Table does not show impact of bond duration and granular credit classes Proposed stock charges significantly higher and vary by confidence level Table does not show impact of company specific portfolio Beta 10 Model Capital Factor Impact: Natural Catastrophes EQ 250yr VaR Relativity Region 100yr 500yr 1000yr New Madrid 15% 319%

652% HURR 100yr VaR Relativity Region Northeast MidAtlantic Southeast 200yr 500yr 1000yr 182% 190% 153% 332% 374% 241% 476% 562% 320% We modeled the gross industry portfolio using the RMS model A.M. Best currently charges EQ at 250yr or Hurricane at 100yr EQ risk significantly declines below 250yr HURR risk increases above 100yr period SCS 100yr VaR Relativity Region 200yr 500yr 1000yr US Personal US Comm'l

124% 126% 167% 171% 211% 216% Particularly Northeast EQ 250yr VaR Relativity Region Alaska Northwest California 100yr 500yr 1000yr 66% 30% 66% 121% 171% 127% 138% 264% 158% Source: CrisisHQ.com, RMS v13, and Willis Re HURR 100yr VaR Relativity Region Texas Gulf Florida 200yr 500yr 1000yr 151% 145% 139% 231% 217% 208%

306% 287% 273% Net PMLs may show cliff beyond level of reinsurance Particularly if only purchase limit to current BCAR requirements 11 Model Capital Factor Impact: UW & Other charges (using eCCM) We studied the potential impact of Stochastic BCAR using Willis Res eCCM capital model Typically eCCM produces Higher capital for equity, interest rate, and catastrophe risk Lower capital for fixed income and credit (1yr horizon) UW risk for a line of business decreases as size of premium or reserves increases but are very company specific Utilizing eCCM, a company can evaluate the potential impacts even before final criteria are released eCCM allows companies to assess their own view of risk and compare to BCAR requirements Sample eCCM Results (000s) Asset Risk W1 - Fixed Income Credit Risk W2 - Equity Risk W3 - Interest Rate Risk W4 - Credit Risk Reinsurers Underwriting Risk W5 - Reserve Risk W6 - Prospective Underwriting Risk W7 - Net Catastrophe Risk Exposure Amount BCAR

Factors Economic Capital Coefficients 1 in 100 1 in 250 1 in 1000 435,007 40,586 443,216 14,614 1.1% 20.3% 0.7% 49.6% 0.6% 42.9% 2.6% 1.6% 0.9% 50.9% 3.3% 2.1% 1.2% 70.7% 4.5% 2.9% 177,681 344,339 55,180,612 28.6% 27.4% 0.0% 17.0% 18.6% 0.0% 19.2% 21.1% 0.0% 24.3% 24.7% 0.1% 12 A.M. Bests Stochastic BCAR New BCAR Formula Current BCAR formula (ratio to Required Capital)

= Available Capital reduced for net catastrophe PML Looking for a BCAR score above 100% (range from 0% to 999%) Planned new BCAR formula (ratio to Available Capital) ( ) = Net catastrophe PML moved to be part of Required Capital Translate as excess capital as percent of available capital Looking for a BCAR score above 0% (range from -999% to 100%) The new BCAR scores cannot be interpreted in same manner as current scores. The spread of positive scores will be compressed. Relatively small increases under new scale will represent proportionately stronger capitalization viewed currently. 13 A.M. Bests Stochastic BCAR Applying to Ratings Overall new scores will have higher required capital Change in placement of catastrophe risk Companies may not currently purchase catastrophe reinsurance to proposed standards Generally higher investment charges Rating levels will be calibrated to return periods Show 5 BCAR scores for various VaR levels The BCAR score for a given return period will reflect capital charges for all risks at that level This will significantly increase required capital when looking beyond the 1-100 level For higher ratings (A+/A++) A.M. Best has currently not defined capital thresholds as those ratings not solely based on capitalization VaR Return Period Potential FSR* 99.9% 1-1000 A (A++)** 99.8%

1-500 A (A+)** 99.5% 1-200 A / A- 99.0% 1-100 B++ / B+ 98.0% 1-50 < B+ * Assuming no other strengths or weaknesses related to Holding Company, Operating Performance, Business Profile, ERM or Country Risk issues these are the levels BCAR could support ** Willis Re interpretation of scale at higher return periods for A+ and A++ rating Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Insider, Willis Re A.M. Best is still actively evaluating how the new Stochastic BCAR will fit into their overall Rating Methodology and assignment of ratings. Need to remember that BCAR scores are one component of ratings evaluation and assignment. 14 Potential guidance for calibrating BCAR to ratings Old benchmarks not relevant Examine new BCAR scores for the various return periods to understand a companys tail risks and drivers BCAR score > 0% being considered as a standard Where is Available Capital less than Required Capital May create a cap on rating depending on other rating factors NEW Stochastic BCAR (%) A.M. Bests Stochastic BCAR Applying to Ratings (cont.) 100 90

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 Company A Company B BCAR 0% 1-50yr < B+ 1-100yr B++ / B+ 1-200yr A / A- 1-500yr A (A+)* 1-1000yr A (A++)* VaR Confidence Levels *Willis Re interpretation of scale at higher return periods Company A and Company B are rated A+ with identical current BCAR scores. However under the new Stochastic BCAR, Company B falls below ZERO after the 1-200yr return period. This may cap Company Bs rating at the A-/A level 15 A.M. Bests Stochastic BCAR Next Steps Developing: Building the various distributions: completed Running model simulations: completed Reviewing the output & setting parameters: completed

Analyzing the potential for unintended consequences: on-going Discussions with subject matter experts: on-going Communicating: Risk measures: VaR Confidence levels: 1-50, 1-100, 1-200, 1-500, & 1-1000 Issue draft criteria for public comment: expected release Q1 2016 Receive & review public comments: 60-90 day comment period Release final criteria: depending upon public comment & changes Implementing: Phase 1 roll-out: earliest Q4 2016 based on YE 2015 financials 16 CONTACT INFORMATION Raj Bohra, EVP [email protected] 212-915-8444 Douglass Ostermiller, SVP [email protected] 212-915-8266 Ralph Cagnetta, EVP [email protected] 212-915-8412 Willis Re disclaimers This analysis has been prepared by Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc and/or the Willis entity with whom you are dealing (Willis Re) on condition that it shall be treated as strictly confidential and shall not be communicated in whole, in part, or in summary to any third party without written consent from Willis Re. Willis Re has relied upon data from public and/or other sources when preparing this analysis. No attempt has been made to verify independently the accuracy of this data. Willis Re does not represent or otherwise guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such data nor assume responsibility for the result of any error or omission in the data or other materials gathered from any source in the preparation of this analysis. Willis Re, its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries and affiliates (hereinafter Willis) shall have no liability in connection with any results, including, without limitation, those arising from based upon or in connection with errors, omissions, inaccuracies, or inadequacies associated with the data or arising from, based upon or in connection with any methodologies used or applied by Willis Re in producing this analysis or any results contained herein. Willis expressly disclaims any and all liability arising from, based upon or in connection with this analysis. Willis assumes no duty in contract, tort or otherwise to any party arising from, based upon or in connection with this analysis, and no party should expect Willis to owe it any such duty. There are many uncertainties inherent in this analysis including, but not limited to, issues such as limitations in the available data, reliance on client data and outside data sources, the underlying volatility of loss and other random processes, uncertainties that characterize the application of professional judgment in estimates and assumptions, etc. Ultimate losses, liabilities and claims depend upon future contingent

events, including but not limited to unanticipated changes in inflation, laws, and regulations. As a result of these uncertainties, the actual outcomes could vary significantly from Willis Res estimates in either direction. Willis makes no representation about and does not guarantee the outcome, results, success, or profitability of any insurance or reinsurance program or venture, whether or not the analyses or conclusions contained herein apply to such program or venture. Willis does not recommend making decisions based solely on the information contained in this analysis. Rather, this analysis should be viewed as a supplement to other information, including specific business practice, claims experience, and financial situation. Independent professional advisors should be consulted with respect to the issues and conclusions presented herein and their possible application. Willis makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this document and its contents. This analysis is not intended to be a complete actuarial communication, and as such is not intended to be relied upon. A complete communication can be provided upon request. Willis Re actuaries are available to answer questions about this analysis. Willis does not provide legal, accounting, or tax advice. This analysis does not constitute, is not intended to provide, and should not be construed as such advice. Qualified advisers should be consulted in these areas. Willis makes no representation, does not guarantee and assumes no liability for the accuracy or completeness of, or any results obtained by application of, this analysis and conclusions provided herein. This limitation of liability does not apply to losses or damage caused by death, personal injury, dishonesty or any other liability which cannot be excluded by law. This analysis is not intended to be a complete Financial Analysis communication. A complete communication can be provided upon request. Willis Re analysts are available to answer questions about this analysis. Willis does not guarantee any specific financial result or outcome, level of profitability, valuation, or rating agency outcome with respect to A.M. Best or any other agency. Willis specifically disclaims any and all liability for any and all damages of any amount or any type, including without limitation, lost profits, unrealized profits, compensatory damages based on any legal theory, punitive, multiple or statutory damages or fines of any type, based upon, arising from, in connection with or in any manner related to the services provided hereunder. Acceptance of this document shall be deemed agreement to the above. Where data is supplied by way of CD or other electronic format, Willis accepts no liability for any loss or damage caused to the Recipient directly or indirectly through use of any such CD or other electronic format, even where caused by negligence. Without limitation, Willis shall not be liable for: loss or corruption of data, damage to any computer or communications system, indirect or consequential losses. The Recipient should take proper precautions to prevent loss or damage including the use of a virus checker. Any material provided to reinsurers is provided on condition that they shall treat it as strictly confidential and shall not communicate it in whole, in part, or in summary to any third party without written consent from Willis Re. 18 Vendor disclaimers

For deliverables including output from Risk Management Solutions (RMS): This report, and the analyses, models and predictions contained herein ("Information"), are based on data provided by Willis Re Inc., Willis Limited and their respective affiliates (hereinafter collectively Willis) and compiled using proprietary computer risk assessment technology of Risk Management Solutions, Inc. ("RMS"). The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists (including without limitation: earthquake engineers, wind engineers, structural engineers, geologists, seismologists, meteorologists, geotechnical specialists and mathematicians). As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. 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