Changing Seasons in a Changing Climate Part Two

Climate Change in the Kawarthas Updated December 2017 Part 2 Peterborough Flood of July 2004 Earlier and more abundant grass & tree pollen Tree pollen is emerging roughly two weeks earlier in the spring in much of N.A. Pollen counts are expected to more than double by 2040 We can expect a large increase in pollen production in grasses (e.g., Timothy) due to increased CO2. Up to 200% more - PLOS 1, Nov. 2014 Many people already experiencing

more serious allergy symptoms A marked increase in invasive species more adaptable to a warming world than native plants - thrive in higher atmospheric CO2 levels Purple Loosestrife Dog-strangling Vine Common Reed (Phragmites) Garlic Mustard Thriving Ragweed and Poison Ivy Higher CO2 levels in atmosphere may explain increase in size and abundance

Ragweed shedding pollen up to a month longer than it did in 1995 Poison Ivy growing faster and is more toxic Ragweed Poison Ivy A huge decline in Monarchs Tagging at Presquile P.P. AREA OCCUPIED BY MONARCH COLONIES AT OVERWINTERING SITES IN MEXICO 1996-1997: 18.19 hectares 2012-2013: 1.19 hectares 2013-2014: 0.67 hectares 2014-2015: 1.13 hectares 2015-2016: 4.01 hectares

2016-2017: 2.90 hectares Elimination of milkweed is main cause (Round-up ready GMO corn and soybean in mid-western U.S.) Climate change is also a cause during migration (drought, heat) on the breeding grounds (arriving before milkweed is up) Mexican wintering grounds (winter storms more frequent 75% mortality in 2002; Oyamel firs in jeopardy) Current population extremely vulnerable to winter storms Photo from Mexican wintering grounds Later freeze-up means later fall departure of waterbirds

Common Merganser Canada Geese Common Loon Trumpeter Swan Extreme Events March 2012 8 days of 20 C temperatures mid-March (Mar. 22 26C) Frogs calling four weeks early Mourning Doves beginning to nest Trees came into flower Many flowers were killed by April frosts, resulting in an 80% loss in Ontarios apple production.

Ice-out on March 20, a full month earlier than the long-term average Weather Weirding poem, 2012 Extreme events Red Admiral invasion of April 2012 Unprecedented numbers (300 million plus) of migratory Red Admirals Linked to unprecedented drought in Texas (climate change?) Drought had killed predators of Red Admiral caterpillars With rains, abundant wildflowers and huge reproductive success Wave after wave came north out of Texas from April through May Arrived too early to lay eggs, since

nettles were not yet up Red Admirals feeding on tree sap Stinging Nettle Extreme Events Winter 2014 Peterborough temperatures cooler than average since November Feb. 4 C cooler, Mar. 6 C cooler. Great Lakes frozen over 90% Displaced ducks turned up on the Otonabee River Red-breasted Merganser on Otonabee Unprecedented invasion of Snowy Owls due to

population explosion on Arctic breeding ground (abundant lemmings; CC connection may explain lemming abundance ) Warming of the Arctic & retreat of Arctic ice may be causing changes in the Jet Stream. Result? Prolonged spells of extreme weather including heat waves (e.g., California) & freezing temps (winter 2014) Chemong Rd. Snowy Owl Concern for the future Loss of bird diversity Audubon Birds and Climate Report (Sept. 2014): 314 of the 588 North American species studied will lose more than 50 percent of their current climatic range by 2080. As for the Kawarthas, a number of iconic birds will probably no longer be able to breed here, their range having moved much further north. Veery Hummingbird

Ovenbird Bobolink Common Loon Baltimore Oriole Concern for the future Changes in Autumn Leaf Season Changes in precipitation could impact the brightness and brilliance of fall colors Increased likelihood of extreme precipitation in central Ontario may dull the colours (more cloudy days = less photosythesis = fewer anthocyanins = less red in the leaves) Tree species may migrate northward

Longer summers may delay on-set of colours Source: Howard Neufeld, Professor of physiological plant ecology, Appalachian State University Concern for the future: Less winter insect mortality Milder temperatures are allowing more insects to successfully overwinter. Possibly explains the increase in West Nile disease in 2012. Worst year ever in U.S. House Mosquito (Culex pipiens) Lyme disease is present along Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as Black-legged Ticks are now able to overwinter in Ontario. Will have spread over all of Southern Ontario

by 2020. Insects in general including pests should thrive in a warming climate and have more lifecycles. Black-legged Tick Concern for the future a decline in forest health Increased temperature, more frequent drought, competition with invasive plant species (e.g., European Buckthorn), greater risks from insect pests (e.g., Emerald Ash Borer, Gypsy Moth) and fungal infections (Butternut canker, American Beech bark disease)

By mid-century, we wont have the temperature and precipitation regime for the kind of forest and vegetation we have now. Our climate will have moved into northern Ontario. A number of tree species may disappear from our forests. Concern for the future - decline in lake & river health Earlier ice-out and later freeze-up Warmer temps & increased evaporation may lead to lower water levels

Altered stream flow patterns Decreased water quality Warmer water fish (large-mouthed bass) should do well Cool water fish (walleye) may decrease Conditions may allow non-native fish (e.g., round goby) to thrive & out-compete native species for food An increase in the types and abundance of invasive species (e.g., zebra mussel, rusty crayfish, spiny waterflea, Eurasian water-milfoil, Frog-bit, Fanwort) 2012 was one of the worst summers on record for aquatic plant-related problems for boaters (Source: marina owner, Buckhorn Lake) Walleye

Zebra Mussels Eurasian Milfoil Concern for the future emotional distress A change in how it feels to live in the Kawarthas - new species, new climate, extreme weather events The disappearance of some seasonal rituals weve had for so long (e.g., a backyard rink, crosscountry skiing)

A sense of loss when valued natural environments are disrupted or degraded (e.g., loss of trees in wind storms, loss of species like nighthawks) Huge obstacles to ACTION Well-funded, highly successful denial industry has managed to instill doubt: Is CC actually human-induced and/or something to be concerned about. Its therefore fine to be apathetic. Action on climate change is framed as anti-economic growth and a government money grab thru new taxes. We are both disconnected from nature. Fewer of us go outside, so all seems fine. Our brain reacts poorly to slow motion phenomena

Humans deal poorly with future events; we deal poorly with uncertainty; and we are cost averse. Climate change is characterized by all three of these. Shifting baseline syndrome Because change happens so gradually, we hardly notice it. Soon, the change is radical (e.g., no birds singing) but seems normal We are not reminded of climate change enough not even on weather reports or Weather Network website! Gratification for action now is in the distant future Individual action seems meaningless. It all seems so hopeless. A solution means a massive move away from fossil fuels and major changes to our lifestyles. What you can do Make climate change a regular topic of conversation with friends and relatives Challenge deniers or those who

dont consider it an important threat Demand much more aggressive action by politicians Take part in Citizen Science monitoring programs (e.g., Ontario Reptile & Amphibian Atlas, PlantWatch, Great Backyard Bird Count) to become more aware of how the climate and nature are changing.

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