9 E JT Chapter 4 ~ Probability Limiting Relative Frequency 0.6 0.5 0.4 Relative Frequency 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 Trials 1 9 E JT Chapter Goals Learn the basic concepts of probability Learn the rules that apply to the probability of both simple and compound events In order to make inferences, we need to study sample results in situations in which the population is known 2 9 E

JT 4.1 ~ The Nature of Probability Example: Consider an experiment in which we roll two sixsided fair dice and record the number of 3s face up. The only possible outcomes are zero 3s, one 3, or two 3s. Here are the results after 100 rolls, and after 1000 rolls: 100 Rolls Outcome Frequency 0 80 1 19 2 1 1000 Rolls Outcome Frequency 0 690 1 282 2 28

3 9 E JT Using a Histogram We can express these results (from the 1000 rolls) in terms of relative frequencies and display the results using a histogram: 0.7 0.6 Relative Frequency 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 1

2 Threes Face Up 4 9 E JT Continuing the Experiment If we continue this experiment for several thousand more rolls: 1. The frequencies will have approximately a 25:10:1 ratio in totals 2. The relative frequencies will settle down Note: We can simulate many probability experiments: Use random number tables Use a computer to randomly generate number values representing the various experimental outcomes

Key to either method is to maintain the probabilities 5 9 E JT 4.2 ~ Probability of Events Probability that an Event Will Occur: The relative frequency with which that event can be expected to occur The probability of an event may be obtained in three different ways: Empirically Theoretically Subjectively 6 9 E JT Experimental or Empirical Probability Experimental or Empirical Probability:

1. The observed relative frequency with which an event occurs 2. Prime notation is used to denote empirical probabilities: n( A ) P (A ) n 3. n(A): number of times the event A has occurred 4. n: number of times the experiment is attempted Question: What happens to the observed relative frequency as n increases? 7 9 E JT Example Example: Consider tossing a fair coin. Define the event H as the occurrence of a head. What is the probability

of the event H, P(H)? 1. In a single toss of the coin, there are two possible outcomes 2. Since the coin is fair, each outcome (side) should have an equally likely chance of occurring 3. Intuitively, P(H) = 1/2 (the expected relative frequency) Notes: This does not mean exactly one head will occur in every two tosses of the coin In the long run, the proportion of times that a head will occur is approximately 1/2 8 9 E JT Long-Run Behavior To illustrate the long-run behavior: 1. Consider an experiment in which we toss the coin several times and record the number of heads

2. A trial is a set of 10 tosses 3. Graph the relative frequency and cumulative relative frequency of occurrence of a head 4. A cumulative graph demonstrates the idea of long-run behavior 5. This cumulative graph suggests a stabilizing, or settling down, effect on the observed cumulative probability 6. This stabilizing effect, or long-term average value, is often referred to as the law of large numbers 9 9 E JT Experiment Experimental results of tossing a coin 10 times each trial: Trial 1 2 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Number of Relative Cumulative Heads Observed Frequency Relative Frequency 5 5/10 5/10 = 0.5000 4

4/10 9/20 = 0.4500 4 4/10 13/30 = 0.4333 5 5/10 18/40 = 0.4500 6 6/10 24/50 = 0.4800 7 7/10 28/60 = 0.4667 6 6/10 34/70 = 0.4857 4 4/10 38/80 = 0.4750 7 7/10 45/90 = 0.5000 3 3/10 48/100 = 0.4800

4 4/10 52/110 = 0.4727 6 6/10 58/120 = 0.4838 7 7/10 65/130 = 0.5000 4 4/10 69/140 = 0.4929 3 3/10 72/150 = 0.4800 7 7/10 79/160 = 0.4938 6 6/10 85/170 = 0.5000 3 3/10 88/180 = 0.4889 6 6/10

94/190 = 0.4947 4 4/10 98/200 = 0.4900 10 9 E JT Relative Frequency 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Expected value = 1/2 0.1 0 0 5

10 15 20 25 Trial 11 9 E JT Cumulative Relative Frequency 0.6 Expected value = 1/2 0.55 0.5

0.45 0.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 Trial 12 9 E JT Law of Large Numbers Law of Large Numbers: If the number of times an experiment is repeated is increased, the ratio of the number of successful

occurrences to the number of trials will tend to approach the theoretical probability of the outcome for an individual trial Interpretation: The law of large numbers says: the larger the number of experimental trials n, the closer the empirical probability P(A) is expected to be to the true probability P(A) In symbols: As n , P' (A) P(A) 13 9 E JT 4.3 ~ Simple Sample Spaces We need to talk about data collection and experimentation more precisely With many activities, like tossing a coin, rolling a die, selecting a card, there is uncertainty as to what will happen We will study and characterize this uncertainty 14

9 E JT Experiment & Outcome Experiment: Any process that yields a result or an observation Outcome: A particular result of an experiment Example: Suppose we select two students at random and ask each if they have a car on campus: 1. A list of possible outcomes: (Y, Y), (Y, N), (N, Y), (N, N) 2. This is called ordered pair notation 3. The outcomes may be displayed using a tree diagram 15 9 E JT Tree Diagram Student 1 Student 2

Outcomes Y Y, Y N Y, N Y N, Y N N, N Y N 1. This diagram consists of four branches: 2 first generation branches and 4 second generation branches 2. Each branch shows a possible outcome

16 9 E JT Sample Space & Event Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. The sample space is typically called S and may take any number of forms: a list, a tree diagram, a lattice grid system, etc. The individual outcomes in a sample space are called sample points. n(S) is the number of sample points in the sample space. Event: any subset of the sample space. If A is an event, then n(A) is the number of sample points that belong to A Example: For the student car example above: S = { (Y, Y), (Y, N), (N, Y), (N, N) } n(S) = 4 17 9 E JT Examples

Example: An experiment consists of two trials. The first is tossing a penny and observing a head or a tail; the second is rolling a die and observing a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. Construct the sample space: S = { H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6 } Example: Three voters are randomly selected and asked if they favor an increase in property taxes for road construction in the county. Construct the sample space: S = { NNN, NNY, NYN, NYY, YNN, YNY, YYN, YYY} 18 9 E JT Example Example: An experiment consists of selecting electronic parts from an assembly line and testing each to see if it passes inspection (P) or fails (F). The experiment terminates as soon as one acceptable part is found or after three parts are tested. Construct the sample space: Outcome

F FFF F F P P FP P P FFP S = { FFF, FFP, FP, P } 19 9 E JT Example Example: The 1200 students at a local university have been cross tabulated according to resident and college status: Arts and Sciences Resident

600 Nonresident 175 Business 280 145 The experiment consists of selecting one student at random from the entire student body n(S) = 1200 20 9 E JT Example Example: On the way to work, some employees at a certain company stop for a bagel and/or a cup of coffee. The accompanying Venn diagram summarizes the behavior of the employees for a randomly selected work day: Coffee Bagel

32 18 16 11 The experiment consists of selecting one employee at random n(S) = 77 21 9 E JT Notes 1. The outcomes in a sample space can never overlap 2. All possible outcomes must be represented 3. These two characteristics are called mutually exclusive and all inclusive 22

9 E JT 4.4 ~ Rules of Probability Consider the concept of probability and relate it to the sample space Recall: the probability of an event is the relative frequency with which the event could be expected to occur, the long-term average 23 9 E JT Equally Likely Events 1. In a sample space, suppose all sample points are equally likely to occur 2. The probability of an event A is the ratio of the number of sample points in A to the number of sample points in S n( A ) 3. In symbols: P (A )

n( S ) 4. This formula gives a theoretical probability value of event As occurrence 5. The use of this formula requires the existence of a sample space in which each outcome is equally likely 24 9 E JT Example Example: A fair coin is tossed 5 times, and a head (H) or a tail (T) is recorded each time. What is the probability of: A = {exactly one head in 5 tosses}, and B = {exactly 5 heads}? The outcomes consist of a sequence of 5 Hs and Ts A typical outcome includes a mixture of Hs and Ts, like: HHTTH There are 32 possible outcomes, all equally likely

A = {HTTTT, THTTT, TTHTT, TTTHT, TTTTH} B = {HHHHH} P(A ) n( A ) 5 n( S ) 32 n( B) 1 P ( B) n( S ) 32 25 9 E JT Subjective Probability 1. Suppose the sample space elements are not equally likely, and empirical probabilities cannot be used 2. Only method available for assigning probabilities may be personal judgment

3. These probability assignments are called subjective probabilities 4. Personal judgment of the probability is expressed by comparing the likelihood among the various outcomes 26 9 E JT Basic Probability Ideas 1. Probability represents a relative frequency 2. P(A) is the ratio of the number of times an event can be expected to occur divided by the number of trials 3. The numerator of the probability ratio must be a positive number or zero 4. The denominator of the probability ratio must be a positive number (greater than zero) 5. The number of times an event can be expected to occur in n trials is always less than or equal to the total number of trials, n 27 9

E JT Properties 1. The probability of any event A is between 0 and 1: 0 P(A ) 1 2. The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes in the sample space is 1: P(A) 1 all outcomes Notes: The probability is zero if the event cannot occur The probability is one if the event occurs every time (a sure thing) 28 9 E JT

Example Example: On the way to work Bobs personal judgment is that he is four times more likely to get caught in a traffic jam (TJ) than have an easy commute (EC). What values should be assigned to P(TJ) and P(EC)? P(TJ ) 4 P ( EC) P (TJ ) P ( EC) 1 4 P( EC) P( EC) 1 5 P( EC) 1 1 P( EC) 5 1 4 P(TJ ) 4 P ( EC) 4 5 5 29 9 E JT

Odds Odds: another way of expressing probabilities If the odds in favor of an event A are a to b, then: 1. The odds against A are b to a a 2. The probability of event A is: P(A ) a b 3. The probability that event A will not occur is b P(A does not occur ) a b 30 9 E JT Example Example: The odds in favor of you passing an introductory statistics class are 11 to 3. Find the probability you will pass and the probability you will fail. Using the preceding notation: a = 11 and b = 3:

11 11 P( pass) 11 3 14 3 3 P( fail) 11 3 14 31 9 E JT Complement of An Event Complement of an Event: The set of all sample points in the sample space that do not belong to event A. The complement of event A is denoted by A (read A complement). 32

9 E JT Example Example: 1. The complement of the event success is failure 2. The complement of the event rain is no rain 3. The complement of the event at least 3 patients recover out of 5 patients is 2 or fewer recover Notes: P ( A ) P ( A ) 1 for any event A P ( A ) 1 P ( A ) Every event A has a complementary event A Complementary probabilities are very useful when the question asks for the probability of at least one. 33 9 E JT

Example Example: A fair coin is tossed 5 times, and a head(H) or a tail 1) A = {at least one head in 5 tosses} 2) B = {at most 3 heads in 5 tosses} (T) is recorded each time. What is the probability of Solutions: 1) P (A ) 1 P (A ) 1 P (0 heads in 5 tosses) 1 31 1 32 32 2) P ( B) 1 P ( B) 1 P (4 or 5 heads) 1 ( P (4 heads) P (5 heads)) 5 1 6 26 13 1 1

32 32 32 32 16 34 9 E JT Example Example: A local automobile dealer classifies purchases by number of doors and transmission type. The table below gives the number of each classification. Manual Automatic Transmission Transmission 2-door 75 155 4-door 85 170

If one customer is selected at random, find the probability that: 1) The selected individual purchased a car with automatic transmission 2) The selected individual purchased a 2-door car 35 9 E JT Solutions 1) P(Automatic Transmission) 155 170 325 65 75 85 155 170 485 97 2) P( 2 - door ) 75 155 230 46

75 85 155 170 485 97 36