CHAPTER 8 Interest Rate Risk I Copyright 2014 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Overview This chapter discusses the interest rate risk associated with FIs: Federal Reserve monetary policy Repricing model *Appendices: *Maturity model *Term structure of interest rates

Ch 8-2 Interest Rates and Net Worth FIs exposed to risk due to maturity mismatches between assets and liabilities Interest rate changes can have severe adverse impact on net worth Thrifts, during 1980s Ch 8-3

US Treasury Bill Rate, 1965 - 2012 Ch 8-4 Level & Movement of Interest Rates Federal Reserve Bank: U.S. central bank Open market operations influence money supply, inflation, and interest rates Actions of Fed (December, 2008) in response to economic crisis

Target rate between 0.0 and percent Ch 8-5 Central Bank and Interest Rates Target is primarily short term rates Focus on Fed Funds Rate in particular Interest rate changes and volatility increasingly transmitted from country to country Statements by Ben Bernanke can have

dramatic effects on world interest rates Ch 8-6 Repricing Model Repricing or funding gap model based on book value Contrasts with market value-based maturity and duration models in appendix Ch 8-7

Repricing Model Rate sensitivity means repricing at current rates Repricing gap is the difference between interest earned on assets and interest paid on liabilities Refinancing risk Reinvestment risk Ch 8-8 Maturity Buckets Commercial banks must report repricing gaps for assets and liabilities

with maturities of: One day More than one day to three months More than three months to six months More than six months to twelve months More than one year to five years

Over five years Ch 8-9 Repricing Gap Example Assets $ 20 1-day $-10 >1day-3mos. 30 -20 >3mos.-6mos. 70

-35 >6mos.-12mos. 90 -15 >1yr.-5yrs. 40 Liabilities Gap $ 30 $-10 Cum. Gap 40

-10 85 -15 70 +20 Ch 8-10 30

+10 Applying the Repricing Model NIIi = (GAPi) Ri = (RSAi - RSLi) Ri Example I: In the one day bucket, gap is -$10 million. If rates rise by 1%, NII(1) = (-$10 million) .01 = -$100,000 Ch 8-11 Applying the Repricing Model Example II:

If we consider the cumulative 1-year gap, NII = (CGAP) R = (-$15 million)(.01) = -$150,000 Ch 8-12 Rate-Sensitive Assets Examples from hypothetical balance sheet: Short-term consumer loans. Repriced at year-end, would just make one-year cutoff

Three-month T-bills repriced on maturity every 3 months Six-month T-notes repriced on maturity every 6 months 30-year floating-rate mortgages repriced (rate reset) every 9 months Ch 8-13 Rate-Sensitive Liabilities RSLs bucketed in same manner as RSAs Demand deposits warrant special

mention Generally considered rate-insensitive (act as core deposits), but there are arguments for their inclusion as ratesensitive liabilities Ch 8-14 CGAP Ratio May be useful to express CGAP in ratio form as CGAP/Assets Provides direction of exposure and Scale of the exposure Example:

CGAP/A = $15 million / $270 million = 0.056, or 5.6 percent Ch 8-15 Equal Rate Changes on RSAs, RSLs Example: Suppose rates rise 1% for RSAs and RSLs. Expected annual change in NII, NII = CGAP R = $15 million .01

= $150,000 With positive CGAP, rates and NII move in the same direction Change proportional to CGAP Ch 8-16 Unequal Changes in Rates If changes in rates on RSAs and RSLs are not equal, the spread changes; In this case, NII = (RSA RRSA ) - (RSL RRSL )

Ch 8-17 Unequal Rate Change Example Spread effect example: RSA rate rises by 1.2% and RSL rate rises by 1.0% NII = interest revenue - interest expense = ($155 million 1.2%) - ($155 million 1.0%) = $310,000 Ch 8-18

Restructuring Assets & Liabilities FI can restructure assets and liabilities, on or off the balance sheet, to benefit from projected interest rate changes Positive gap: increase in rates increases NII Negative gap: decrease in rates increases NII Ch 8-19 Restructuring the Gap

Example: Harleysville Savings Financial Corporation at the end of 2008 One year gap ratio was 1.45 percent Three year gap ratio was 3.97 percent If interest rates rose in 2009, it would experience large increases in net interest income Commercial banks recently reducing gaps to decrease interest rate risk Ch 8-20

Weaknesses of Repricing Model Weaknesses: Ignores market value effects of interest rate changes Overaggregative Distribution of assets & liabilities within individual buckets is not considered Mismatches within buckets can be substantial

Ignores effects of runoffs Bank continuously originates and retires consumer and mortgage loans Runoffs may be rate-sensitive Ch 8-21 Weaknesses of Repricing Model Off-balance-sheet items are not included Hedging effects of off-balance-sheet items not captured Example: Futures contracts

Ch 8-22 *The Maturity Model Explicitly incorporates market value effects For fixed-income assets and liabilities: Rise (fall) in interest rates leads to fall (rise) in market price The longer the maturity, the greater the effect of interest rate changes on market price Fall in value of longer-term securities

increases at diminishing rate for given increase in interest rates Ch 8-23 *Maturity of Portfolio Maturity of portfolio of assets (liabilities) equals weighted average of maturities of individual components of the portfolio Principles stated on previous slide apply to portfolio as well as to individual assets or liabilities

Typically, maturity gap, MA - ML > 0 for most banks and thrifts Ch 8-24 *Effects of Interest Rate Changes Size of the gap determines the size of interest rate change that would drive net worth to zero Immunization and effect of setting MA - M L = 0 Ch 8-25

*Maturities and Interest Rate Exposure If MA - ML = 0, is the FI immunized? Extreme example: Suppose liabilities consist of 1-year zero coupon bond with face value $100. Assets consist of 1-year loan, which pays back $99.99 shortly after origination, and 1 at the end of the year. Both have maturities of 1 year. Not immunized, although maturity gap equals zero Reason: Differences in duration**

**(See Chapter 9) Ch 8-26 *Maturity Model Leverage also affects ability to eliminate interest rate risk using maturity model Example: Assets: $100 million in one-year 10percent bonds, funded with $90 million in one-year 10-percent deposits (and equity) Maturity gap is zero but exposure to interest rate risk is not zero.

Ch 8-27 *Duration The average life of an asset or liability The weighted-average time to maturity using present value of the cash flows, relative to the total present value of the asset or liability as weights Ch 8-28

*Term Structure of Interest Rates YTM YTM Time to Maturity Time to Maturity Time to Maturity

Time to Maturity Ch 8-29 *Unbiased Expectations Theory Yield curve reflects markets expectations of future short-term rates Long-term rates are geometric average of current and expected short-term rates (1 +1RN)N = (1+ 1R1)[1+E(2r1)] [1+E(Nr1)] Ch 8-30

*Liquidity Premium Theory Allows for future uncertainty Premium required to hold long-term Ch 8-31 *Market Segmentation Theory Investors have specific needs in terms of maturity Yield curve reflects intersection of demand and supply of individual

maturities Ch 8-32 Web Resources For information related to central bank policy, visit: Bank for International Settlements www.bis.org Federal Reserve Bank www.federalreserve.gov Ch 8-33