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Launch event Agenda Why choose our specification The GCSE reforms Changes to all GCSEs in Statistics Our new GCSE (91) qualification: Overview Content Assessment

Support Contact details and next steps The specification and sample assessment materials can be found here: http://quals.pearson.com/stats17 Statistics for the real world Straightforward assessment structure Content that develops transferable skills Clear and familiar course content and approach Question papers that support a range of abilities Support resources to help you plan, teach, track and assess

Why teach GCSE Statistics? The world is awash with data. It is estimated that 2.51018 bytes of data are created every day Economies increasingly are data dependent and use data-intensive technologies: government, finance, manufacturing, health, education, media, banking, retail, science, sports, The ability to make sense of data is an essential skill for working life and full citizenship in a modern society GCSE Statistics develops key transferable skills which students take into their other studies and their wider lives GCSE Statistics counts in a slot of the open element of Progress 8

The GCSE reforms Overview of the changes GCSE Statistics is changing for first teaching 2017 and first assessment 2019. The regulatory reforms impacting all GCSEs are: Fully linear structure Updated subject content (from the DfE) and assessment requirements (from Ofqual) General increase in level of demand and challenge, including extended response questions New 9 to 1 grading scale Tiering only in certain subjects (includes Statistics) Non-examination assessment permitted only where it is the only valid option No change to guided learning hours (120 glh)

The new 91 grading scale Broadly the same proportion of students will achieve grade 4 and above as currently achieve grade C and above Broadly the same proportion of students will achieve grade 7 and above as currently achieve grade A and above The bottom of grade 1 will be aligned to the bottom of grade G Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/ 465873/your_qualification_our_regulation.pdf

Strong pass Standard pass The change timeline 2016 2017 2018 2019 Current Last 2-year Last 1-year Last specification course

course assessment commences commences opportunity New specification First teaching of 2-year course First teaching of 1-year course

First assessment opportunity The last available assessment for the current GCSE Statistics is summer 2018 The reformed GCSEs will be reported in the 2019 performance tables Changes to all GCSEs in Statistics Tiering Ofqual has approved the retention of tiering for GCSE Statistics. The approach to tiering follows that of GCSE (91) Mathematics

Foundation tier: will span grades 1 to 5 (five grade range) students will be assessed on content in standard and underlined type papers will reach a higher level of demand than current papers Higher tier: will span grades 4 to 9 (six grade range) students will be assessed on all content papers will: start at a higher level of demand and reach a higher level of demand than current papers Content changes Increased exam emphasis on knowledge related to data collection: planning an investigation, design

constraints, populations and sampling, controlling variables, minimising distortion, cleaning data, acknowledging sources, etc. Expectation that students will use correct statistical terminology and notation including formal notation for probability Some new topics at each tier, especially at Higher tier Some additional formulae to be used, or learnt and used, at each tier Overlap with GCSE Mathematics reduced Assessment changes New assessment objectives Controlled assessment has been removed. All new GCSEs in Statistics will be assessed entirely by written examination

Understanding of the statistical enquiry cycle will be assessed in written form Target assessment objective weightings (with small ranges permissible) Impact of the changes I There is some increase in the amount of content to cover at each tier, especially Higher: May have implications for teaching time and delivery models Removal of controlled assessment: Frees up curriculum time to cover the new content requirements Continuing to incorporate some practical

work will support students with AO3 questions Impact of the changes II Increase in demand of the assessment: Tier choice criteria may need to be reconsidered, especially for borderline students Inclusion of extended response questions: Strategies to support students including those with EAL and literacy needs Some increase in the number of formulae to be learnt: Strategies may be needed to support some students The increase in subject breadth and depth: Some non-specialist teachers may benefit from CPD

Our new qualification Our approach Our approach has been to develop a Statistics qualification that: you will know and recognise is clear about content coverage will support you in developing students statistical understanding and transferable skills To achieve this we have worked with the teaching community, higher education and statistics educationalists to design our new qualification We have gathered over 300 sets of views and had more than 80 conversations with statistics teachers and educationalists

We have trialled our new questions with over 250 students. Our design principles Straightforward assessment structure Two papers of equal size, length and weighting All content and AOs targeted equally in both papers Content that develops transferable skills Develops understanding of how to interpret and apply data Supports skills development for progression in a wide range of subjects including A Level Mathematics Clear and familiar course content and approach Clear content coverage with plenty of guidance Structure follows that of the current specification for ease of use

Question papers that support a range of abilities Clear questions and presentation of data Careful ramping within questions, across papers and between tiers Engaging real-life statistical material and contexts Support resources to help you plan, teach, track and assess Specification overview Available at Foundation tier and Higher tier Paper Content overview Summary of assessment

Paper 1 1. The collection of data (50%) 2. Processing, representing and 1 hour 30 mins analysing data 80 marks 3. Probability All assessment objectives targeted Paper 2 1. The collection of data (50%)

2. Processing, representing and 1 hour 30 mins analysing data 80 marks 3. Probability All assessment objectives targeted Content Content overview The specification content has been updated in line with the DfE subject content Our specification sets out Foundation and

Higher tier content separately and we tell you where topics are not required at Foundation Organisation of content within each tier: follows that of the current specification reflects the sequence of the statistical enquiry cycle. Statistical enquiry cycle Through using the SEC students need to: 1. Understand the importance of initial planning 2. Recognise the constraints in sourcing appropriate data 3. Understand ways that data can be processed and presented including through use of technology

4. Interpret results in context 5. Understand importance of clear and concise communication Content changes Foundation Topics new to Foundation tier include: Context sensitivity as a source of bias Judgement, convenience and quota sampling RPI, CPI Rates of change over time e.g. birth rates Interpretation of Spearmans rank correlation coefficient Effect of sample size when estimating probability Venn diagrams Conditional probability

Content changes Higher I Topics new to Higher tier include: Misuse of frequency density formula Geometric mean Calculation of skewness Interdecile range Identify outliers using IQR or standard deviation Deeper understanding of Normal distribution Content changes Higher II Topics new to Higher tier include (continued): Distribution of sample means Placement of action and warning lines No expansion formula given for binomial

calculations Multivariate data Interpretation of Pearsons product moment correlation coefficient Distinction between Spearmans and Pearsons coefficients Removed content Foundation Effects of accuracy on measurements Non-linear models Higher Effects of accuracy on measurements

Non-linear models Discrete uniform distribution Simulation for more complex probabilities Formulae There are statistics formulae that students: are expected to know should be able to use - these will be given in the assessment There are also GCSE Mathematics formulae that students are expected to know New in 2017 Foundation

Higher Statistics formulae to be known: Mean Mean, Geometric mean Double mean point Interdecile range Probability formulae Outliers using SD Probability formulae Statistics formulae to be used: Rates of change

Skew Rates of change Examples of formulae Formulae students are expected to know include: Additional law for mutually exclusive events: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Multiplication law for independent events: P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) P(AB) = P(A) and P(BA) = P(B) Formula for conditional probability: P(BA) = P(A and B) / P(A) Additionally for Higher tier students:

General addition law: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B) Formulae sheet/notice Some formulae may be given to students in the assessment. We have taken a different approach to the provision of these formulae according to tier: Foundation tier: no separate formulae sheet. The formula (rates of change) will be given alongside the question Higher tier: separate formulae sheet provided on page 2 of the assessments Assessment

Assessment objectives Assessment objectives AO1 Demonstrate knowledge and understanding, using appropriate terminology and notation, of standard statistical techniques used to: collect and represent data calculate summary statistics and probabilities AO2 Interpret statistical information and results in context and reason statistically to draw conclusions AO3 Assess the appropriateness of statistical methodologies and the conclusions drawn through the application of the statistical enquiry cycle Weighting 55%

25% 20% Breakdown of AOs Paper Paper 1 Paper 2 Total for GCSE AO1 AO2 27.5% 27.5%

55% 3 12.5% 12.5% 25% 3 AO3 Total for all AOs 10% 50% 10% 50% 20% 3 100%

Assessment overview Paper 1 1ST0/1F, 1ST0/1H Paper 2 1ST0/2F, 1ST0/2H Compulsory paper Externally assessed 50% of the total GCSE 1 hour 30 minutes 80 marks Compulsory paper Externally assessed 50% of the total GCSE 1 hour 30 minutes 80 marks

Assesses all content Questions on statistical methods and component parts of the SEC Familiar and unfamiliar contexts Short, medium and extended response questions Assesses all content Questions on statistical methods and component parts of the SEC Familiar and unfamiliar contexts Short, medium and extended response questions

Paper overview All content can be assessed on either paper Ramping of questions through each paper, plus ramping within multi-part questions Overlapping tiers with common questions Range of question types: MCQ, short, calculation, open response, extended response Extended response questions: Foundation: there will be at least 3 extended response questions of 56 marks each Higher: there will be at least 6 extended response questions of 56 marks

Calculators Students must have a scientific calculator with them in both papers which they may use Students are expected to be familiar with the statistical function keys The standard JCQ calculator requirements apply which includes that they may not: Offer symbolic algebraic manipulation Have retrievable information stored in them Use of statistical tables is not required. Paper 1, Foundation qu. 3 Leyla wants to find out how often people in her town eat in a

restaurant. She asked a sample of 30 people how many times they had eaten in a restaurant during the last week. Here are Leylas results. 3 4 2 1 1 5 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 5 1 3 1 1 4 3 3 1 4 2 1 1 2 (a) Fill in the tally chart for this information and complete the frequency column. (2) Paper 1, Foundation qu. 3 (b) Write down the mode. (1) (c) Work out the number of people in Leylas sample who had eaten in a restaurant fewer

than 4 times during the last week. (2) (d) Suggest a suitable diagram that Leyla could use to represent her data. (1) Paper 2, Foundation qu. 2 Tom and Samira want to collect data on the numbers of hours students at their school spend on homework. There are 1100 students at their school. Tom is planning to use a random sample of 50 students. (a) Explain what is meant by a random sample. (1) (b) Describe how Tom could use random numbers to take a random sample of the students at his school. (3)

Samira is planning to use a stratified sample that is stratified by school year. (c) Comment on whether Samiras plan is appropriate. (2) Paper 2, Common qu. 13/4 X and Y are two events. The Venn diagram shows information about the probabilities of events related to X and Y happening. (a) Find (i) the probability of event Y happening (ii) P(X and Y) (iii) P(Y X). (4)

Paper 2, Common qu. 13/4 Two different events A and B are independent. P(A) = 0.8 and P(B) = 0.5 (b) Find P(A and B). (2) Paper 2, Common qu. 14/5 Gary is going to investigate the amounts of time students spend watching TV. He is going to write a plan for this investigation. His hypothesis is The amount of time that boys spend watching TV is greater than the amount of time that girls spend watching TV. Write down three other things he should include in his plan.

Explain why each of these things is appropriate. You must refer to more than one stage of the statistical enquiry cycle. (6) Paper 1, Higher qu. 11 In a television talent contest, 9 acts were given the following ranks by the judges and by a public telephone vote. (a) Use calculations to determine how much agreement there is between the judges and the public. (5)

Paper 1, Higher qu. 11 Gurdeep was investigating the relationship between the number of points scored and the year practice started for each of 9 acts. This is the scatter diagram he obtained using statistics software. Paper 1, Higher qu. 11 The statistical software also calculated two correlation coefficients. Spearmans rank correlation coefficient Pearsons product moment correlation coefficient (b) (i) Circle one value in each row below to show the most likely pair of correlation coefficients for this data. Spearmans rank

correlation coefficient: 0.9 0.7 0 0.7 0.9 Pearsons product moment correlation coefficient: 0.9 0.7 0 0.7 0.9 (2) (ii) Explain your choice of answers in part (i) (1) Support Supporting great

Statistics teaching Plan Teach Develop Track & Assess Extensive free support to help you plan, teach, track and assess, and develop the new course

This includes free qualification support to download from our website as well as published resources* Free qualification support: http://quals.pearson.com/stats17 * You do not have to purchase any resources to deliver our qualification Plan To help you plan the new course we are providing: Plan

Teach Develop Track & Assess Free support for the qualification: Getting Started Guide Course planner Flexible and adaptable scheme of work Mapping documents Teach

There will be teaching and learning support to help you deliver the new qualification: Plan Teach Develop Track & Assess Free support for the qualification: Teaching points and

common misconceptions Support for the statistical enquiry cycle Published resources from Pearson*: Student Book and ActiveBook * You do not have to purchase any resources to deliver our qualification Track and assess To help you prepare your students for the assessments: Plan

Teach Develop Track & Assess Free support for the qualification: Plenty of specimen papers to support formative assessment and mock exams Marked exemplars of student work with examiner commentaries

ResultsPlus and examWizard Published resources from Pearson*: Pearson Progression Service * You do not have to purchase any resources to deliver our qualification ResultsPlus and examWizard ResultsPlus provides the most detailed analysis available of your students exam performance. This free online service helps you identify topics and skills where students could benefit from further learning, helping them gain a deeper understanding of Statistics. examWizard is a free exam preparation tool

containing a bank of past Edexcel exam questions, mark schemes and examiners reports, so you can create mock papers, homework or practice tests in minutes. Develop Our training programme includes: Plan This launch presentation Getting Ready to Teach events Teach Develop

Track & Assess Our subject advisor team led by Graham Cumming, and the support and resources of the Mathematics Emporium, will guide you through all the changes and are on hand to answer any questions you might have Published resources Were committed to helping teachers deliver our Edexcel qualifications and

students to achieve their potential To do this, we aim for our qualifications to be supported by a range of high-quality resources, produced by a range of publishers However, it is not necessary to purchase endorsed resources to deliver our qualification. Published resources Pearsons new resources*: For students:

Student Book ActiveBook (eBook version of the Student Book) Revision Guide Revision Workbook For teachers: Pearson Progression Service (assessments mapped to the Edexcel scheme of work with online markbook plus practice papers) Publishing in late summer 2017 * These resources have not yet been endorsed. You do not have to purchase any resources to deliver our qualification Contact details and

next steps AS/A level Statistics Were pleased to confirm that Pearson will be taking on AS and A level Statistics For first teaching in September 2017 First assessment of AS in summer 2018 First assessment of AL in summer 2019

We plan to submit our first draft specification and sample assessment materials to Ofqual in April 2017 Find out more: Draft specification and SAMs will be available from April 2017 In summer 2017 we intend to provide a pre-recorded online launch event and Getting Ready to Teach events If youre interested in delivering these qualifications, please contact [email protected] so that we can keep you informed and

updated about these new qualifications. Pearson is recruiting for Statistics examiners We have exciting opportunities to become an examiner for Statistics and: get closer to the qualification you are teaching gain insight on National Standards grow your career. To find out more please visit: www.edexcel.com/aa-recruitment Information email: [email protected] Next steps

Sign up to Mathematics Emporium updates by emailing: [email protected] Visit the Mathematics Emporium for support materials: www.edexcelmaths.com Follow on Twitter: @EmporiumMaths GCSE (91) Statistics subject page: http://quals.pearson.com/stats17 Look out for our free Getting Ready to Teach events until spring 2018

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