GEOG 596A Capstone Proposal - Pennsylvania State University

GEOG 596A Capstone Proposal - Pennsylvania State University

Using GIS to Measure the Impact of Development on Urban Green Space in DC GEOG 596A CAPSTONE PROPOSAL ANGELA T. CHANG, MGIS CANDIDATE ADVISOR: JUSTINE BLANFORD PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY MAY 9, 2016 PRESENTATION OUTLINE Background Goals and Objectives Proposed Methodology Anticipated Results Project Timeline

References BACKGROUND American cities are changing in 2010, 83.7% of the U.S. population resided in one of 366 metropolitan statistical areas Surge in population growth in D.C. since 2000 Demographic changes Increase in average income Increase in residential and commercial development Number and location of projects What impact, if any, has this development impacted the growth or decline of public green space in DC? If yes, any measurable correlation with demographic changes? Any observable spatiotemporal patterns? CHANGING AMERICAN CITIES METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA New York-Northern New Jersey, Long Island. NY-NJ-PA

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Washington-Arlington-Alexandra, DC-VA-MD-WV Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 2000 POPULATION 2010 18,323,002 12,365,627 9,098,316 5,161,544 5,687,147 4,715,407 4,796,183 5,007,564 4,247,981 4,391,344 CHANGE Number Percent 18,897,109 12,828,837

9,461,105 6,371,773 5,965,343 5,946,800 5,582,170 5,564,635 5,268,860 4,552,402 574,107 463,210 362,789 1,210,229 278,196 1,231,393 785,987 557,071 1,020,879 161,058 3.1 3.7 4.0 23.4 4.9 26.1 16.4 11.1 24.0 3.7 (Data from the 2010 Census Briefs)

The landscape of American cities are changing. Metropolitan areas are growing almost twice as fast as micropolitan areas 10.8 percent compared to 5.9 percent respectively, between 2000 and 2010. Between 2000 and 2010, the 10 most populous metropolitan statistical areas all experienced population growth, including double digit growth. Washington, D.C. is one of the 10, experiencing 16.4% increase in population between the last 2 Census counts. POPULATION GROWTH IN DC Population Growth in DC, 2010 - 2014 Between 2000 2010, the Washington metropolitan statistical area (includes DC and the suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria), grew by

16.4%. From 2000 2010, the District of Columbia itself, grew by 5.2%. Since then, the population in D.C. has continued to increase growing 8.4% between 2000 and 2014. 640,000 633,736 630,000 620,000 619,371 610,000 605,759 600,000 593,955 590,000 580,000 584,400 570,000 560,000 550,000

2010 2011 2012 Series 3 (Data from the American Community Survey) 2013 2014 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AGE Millennials in DC account for a significant portion of the population growth since 2000 2000: 30.5% of the total population 2014: 35.0% of the total population Between 2009 and 2014: increase of 22% as a segment of total population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1980, 1990 and 2000 Censuses and the American Community Survey (ACS) 2009-2013 5-year estimates DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES RACE Trend in DC: decrease in the historic black or African-American population 1971: 71% black (peak) 2009: 53% black Washington D.C.: Percent of Population by Race By Decade and By Year (since 2010) 10000% 9000% 8000% 7000% 6580.0% 6000.0% 6000% 5290.0% 3810.0%

4000% 2960.0% 2014: 49.6% black 5190.0% 5110.0% 5000% 3000% 3950.0% 3890.0% 5010.0% 4010.0% 4960.0% 4020.0% 3080.0% 2000% 1000% 0%

1990 2000 2010 2011 White American Indian and Alaska Native Other 2012 2013 Black or African American Asian Two or more races 2014 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES Age + Race The number of millennials of racial or ethnic minority has decreased in DC.

This is notable particularly in contrast with the nationwide trend between 1980 and 2014, which saw this group (millennials of racial or ethnic minority) double. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1980, 1990 and 2000 Censuses and the American Community Survey (ACS) 2009-2013 5-year estimates DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES Income The number of employed millennials in DC has remained relatively on-par with the national average since 1980, an average of approximately 66% and 68% respectively. But significantly, the median income of millennials in DC has continued to increase since 1980, compared to the national average, which saw a decline beginning in 2000. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1980, 1990 and 2000 Censuses and the American Community Survey (ACS) 2009-2013 5-year estimates

DEVELOPMENT IN DC The Washington D.C. Economic Partnership (WDCEP) has tracked development since 2001. August 2015: over 153.2 million square feet developed In 2016: 12.3 million square feet to be developed WHAT ARE URBAN GREEN SPACES? Public urban green spaces are open and accessible to anyone: Parks and conservation areas

Sporting Fields Riparian areas like streams, river banks, greenways and trails Community gardens Street trees Less conventional include: green walls, alleyways, and cemeteries. Urban ecosystems are unique their makeup and very existence are often dependent upon human decision-makers and the surrounding non-natural, built environment. GREEN SPACES AND PUBLIC HEALTH PHYSICAL HEALTH Availability and access to public green spaces can have an impact on public health Green spaces promote positive health outcomes places like parks and sporting areas function as setting for health promoting physical activities and behaviors

Numerous studies, including recent studies utilizing GIS, have documented the positive relationship between access to green space and physical health 2003 Dutch study 2010 Florida State study using GIS MENTAL HEALTH Green spaces also encourage and support mental health and stress relief Physical activity Social interaction within these spaces can encourage and strengthen neighborhood bonds and social ties within the area, within the community, etc. WHY DO GREEN SPACES MATTER? Green spaces positively impact physical and mental public health of urban populations.

Green spaces are also a critical component in maintaining the ecological integrity of a city - vegetation in green spaces help to filter and remove air pollution (Nowak et al., 2006), manage storm and ground water resources (Escobedo et al., 2011), reduce noise, and regulate temperature (Cummins and Jackson, 2001) especially in highly-populated urban environments. ACCESS to public green spaces is a social justice issue. WHY DO GREEN SPACES MATTER? Access To Green Space: A Social Justice Issue Historical inequality of green space between the urban core and suburban counterparts. Recognition of this environmental and social injustice has led to efforts to redress parkpoverty in communities of color and strategies to deploy underutilized urban land for additional green space. The PARADOX: the addition of public green spaces in park-poor neighborhoods can lead to the displacement of the original residents that the green space was meant to benefit in the first place. CASE STUDY: NYCs High Line Park

The High Line Park in New York City is a fascinating example of how the successful effort to turn a 1.45 mile-long elevated section of abandoned railway into an elevated park and aerial greenway, spurred new real estate development the revitalization of the Chelsea neighborhood. The success of the High Line Park has not come without the consequences of gentrification many working-class residents and businesses that have lived and worked in the area for decades have been forced to close. In most cases, the loss of the traditional neighborhood customer base and skyrocketing rent, have been to blame. SUMMARY OF LITERATURE REVIEW Extensive research has demonstrated the positive impact and importance that access to green space has on public health. Accessibility to public green space is now viewed as a social justice issue

There exists a geospatial and demographic influence over the quality, distribution of, and access to urban and public green spaces. Development, spurred by population growth, can greatly change and impact the urban green landscape. Given that D.C. has experienced a steady increase in population growth, accompanied by residential and commercial development, have public green spaces, and access to those spaces, been affected? If so, are there demographic patterns or trends that are associated with the impacted areas? GOALS AND OBJECTIVES IDENTIFY land use classifications and existing urban green spaces in DC ANALYZE whether the increase in residential and commercial development has impacted land use and urban green areas OBSERVE any potential relationships or patterns between demographic changes and availability of/access to urban green spaces. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

Establish baseline demographic data Create layers using demographic data from the 2000 and 2010 Census, and the 2014 American Community Survey. Identify existing public green spaces using data provided by the D.C. GIS Office. Identify change in land use using National Land Cover Data (NLCD) from 2001 to 2011 Calculate the % change in area for individual and overall classification types. Observe and analyze how the % change in land use relates to the % change in population growth. Compare/contrast land use change data with existing designated public green space Analyze land use change data against demographic data to observe possible patterns and relationships Demographic features include: population changes, income-level, housing costs, age, and race

Census 2000 will be used in correlation with 2001 NLCD land use data Census 2010 will be used in correlation with 2011 NLCD land use data PROPOSED METHODOLOGY ESTABLISH BASELINE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA DC Arlington Alexandria The area of interest (AoI) will include the DC suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria counties which experienced concurrent population growth. Census Tract + Ward Boundaries Population Distribution Age Race Income Level Housing Cost For both Census 2000 and 2010 data PROPOSED METHODOLOGY IDENTIFY LAND COVER AND LAND COVER CHANGE

NLCD 2001 NLCD 2011 Difference Identify the change in land use within AoI, using National Land Cover Data (NLCD) from 2001 to 2011. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY IDENTIFY LAND COVER CHANGE Identify and extract the relevant land use classifications Calculate the % change in area for each individual classification type. Calculate the overall % change between all-classes of DEVELOPED vs. everything else. Observe and analyze how the % change in land use tracks with the % change in population growth.

Calculate the approximate green space per person in 2001 compared with 2011 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY IDENTIFY EXISTING PUBLIC GREEN SPACES Create a shapefile with the locations of all public green spaces in DC. This will include: Parks Sporting Fields Community Gardens (indoor and outdoor) Trails and greenways Swimming Pools Natural waterbodies (rivers, lakes, etc)

Extract this from Land Use data layer Individual .shp files will be merged into one comprehensive data set. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS: OBSERVE PATTERNS AND RELATIONSHIPS Overlay land use change data with official data on public green spaces in DC (parks, pools, rec fields, etc) to distinguish how much of the NLCD-derived land use layer is already designated as public green space Conduct HOT SPOT analysis to observe trends in green space distribution within the area of interest overall. Land Use Change Existing Public Green Space PROPOSED METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS: OBSERVE PATTERNS AND RELATIONSHIPS Integrate the before (2001) and after (2011) land use data with demographic data to observe possible patterns and relationships between the location of green space and demographic attributes

Use ZONAL STATISTICS to understand the land use distribution per census tract Conduct MORANS I analysis on the land use change layer to observe any spatial autocorrelation between the location of green spaces and demographic attributes NLCD 2001 Census Tract Shapefile NLCD 2011 RESULT: Statistics on the land use distribution by census-tract ANTICIPATED RESULTS The development of public green space has not kept apace with the increase in population and the increase in development. The rate of change, if any, is not proportional to the rate of change (increase) in population The distribution of public green spaces has a positive correlation with income-levels. In lower-income areas, there are less public green spaces In higher-income areas, there are more public green spaces

PROJECTED TIMELINE FEB MAY 2016 Develop proposal Conduct lit review Explore available data MAY JUNE 2016 Refine objectives based off of peer review Obtain and download data Finalize research methodology Begin analysis JULY AUG 2016 Complete analysis Address any outstanding issues Synthesize results Report on findings KEY DATES: May 31, 2016 Deadline for submission to present at NACIS (North American Cartographic Information Society) October 19 22, 2016 Anticipated presentation date at the NACIS conference in Colorado Springs, Colorado. Works Cited

American FactFinder: United States Census Bureau. DP05: ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates. 2010 2014 American Community Survey 5Year Estimates. U.S. Census Bureau. Web. 9 April 2016. < >. Barton, J. and Pretty, J. What is the best dose of nature and green exercise for improving mental health? A multi-study analysis. Environmental Science and Technology, 44 (10) (2010), pp. 3947-3955. Byrne, J. When green is White: The cultural politics of race, nature and social exclusion in a Los Angeles urban national park. Geoforum, 43 (3) (2012), pp. 595 611. Byrne, J. and Wolch, J. Nature, race, and parks: Past research and future directions for geographic research. Progress in Human Geography, 33 (6) (2009), pp. 743 765. Coutts, C., Horner, M., & Chapin, T. (2010). Using GIS to model the effects of green space accessibility on mortality in Florida. Geocarto International, 25(6), 471-484. Cummins, S.K., Jackson, R.J. The built environment and childrens health. Pediatric Clinics of North America, 48 (5) (2001), pp. 1241 1252.

C. Dobbs, F. Escobedo, W. Zipperer. A framework for developing urban forest ecosystem services and good indicators. Landscape and Urban Planning, 99 (2011), pp. 196 206. Dure, Beau. Millennials Continue Urbanization of America, Leaving Small Towns. NPR. National Public Radio: Around the Nation. 21 Oct 2014. Web. 15 April 2016. Escobedo, F.J., Kroeger, T., & Wagner, J.E. (2011). Urban forests and pollution mitigation: Analyzing ecosystem services and disservices. Environmental Pollution, 159(8), 2078-2087. Groenewegen, P., van den Berg, A., de Vries, S., & Verheij, R. (2006). Vitamin G: Effects of green space on health, well-being, and social safety. BMC Public Health, 6(1), 149. Heynen, N., Perkins, H.A., Roy P. The political ecology of uneven urban green space: The impact of political economy on race and ethnicity in producing environmental inequality in Mil waukee . Urban Affairs Review, 42 (1) (2006), pp. 3 25. Works Cited Kellog, Alex. D.C., Long Chocolate City Becoming More Vanilla. Morning Edition, NPR. 15 Feb 2011. Web. 10 April 2016.

Kuo, F., et al., 1998. Fertile ground for community: Inner-city neighborhood common spaces. American Journal of Community Psychology, 26(6), 823-825. McDonald, R.I., Forman, Richard T., & Kareiva, P. (2010). Open Space Loss and Land Inequality in United States Cities, 1999 2000. PLoS One, 5(3), 1. Millennials Demographic Characteristics DC vs US. DC Office of Planning, 2016. Web. 4 April 2016. Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Main. United States Census Bureau. n.d. Web. 16 April 2016. Moss, Jeremiah. Disney World on the Hudson. The New York Times. The New York Times: The Opinion Pages. 21 Aug 2012. Web. 2 May 2016. New York City Economic Development Council (NYCEDC). Economic Snapshot: A Summary of New York Citys Economy, August 2011. New York City, 2011. Web. 3 May 2016. Population Distribution and Change: 2000 to 2010. 2010 Census Briefs. U.S. Census Bureau, 2011. Web. 9 April 2016.

RealtyTrac. Millennials moving to markets with jobs, baby boomers downsizing to lower-cost markets. RealtyTrac. 17 Sept 2014. Web. 16 April 2016. Roy, S., Byrne, J., Pickering, C. A systematic quantitative review of urban tree benefits, costs, and assessment methods across cities in different climatic zones. Urban Forestry and Urban Greening, 4 (11), 2012, pp. 351 363. de Vries, S., et al., 2003. Natural environments-healthy environments: An exploratory analysis of the relationship between greenspace and health. Environment & Planning A, 35(10), 1717-1731. Washington DC Economic Partnership (WDCEP). Washington, DC Development Report 2015/2016 Edition. Washington, DC: WDCEP, 2016. Web. 4 April 2016. Wolch, J.R., Byrne, J., Newell, J.P. (2014). Urban green space, public health, and environmental justice: The challenge of making cities just green enough. Landscape and Urban

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