Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of ...

Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of ...

Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States NCHRP 17-67 Interim Findings 45,000 43,510 43,00542,88442,836 42,708 43,000 42,196 41,259 41,000 39,000 Traffic fatalities 37,423 NHTSA estimates 8% increase for 2015. 37,000 35,289 35,000 33,883 33,782 32,999 32,71932,675

32,479 33,000 31,000 Declined about 21% 2007 to 2011 29,000 27,000 25,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2 Sharp decline in traffic fatalities was observed in many developed nations at the same time as the U.S. Country Belgium Czech Republic Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Lithuania Decline 2007-2011 Country

21% 37% 19% 48% 44% 32% 40% 14% 23% 60% Hungary Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Finland Sweden United Kingdom IRTAD countries US Decline 2007-2011 48% 22% 25% 25% 20% 24% 34%

35% 27% 21% Source: Antoniou, C., G. Yannis, et al. Improving fatalities forecasting in times of recession in Europe. Athens, Greece, National Technical University of Athens. 3 Most improvements in traffic safety are incremental and are expressed gradually over time Driver Behavior Vehicle Environment Safety Belt Use Crashworthy Designs Roadway Design Graduated Driver License Crash Avoidance Technologies Better Barriers Rumble Strips

Enforcment Forward Collision Warning Safety Campaigns Electronic Stability Control 4 Shorter Term Travel Demand Economic Cultural Freight Teens Technology Delaying DL Employment/ Unemployment Telecommunting Fuel Price Urban / Rural Population Trends 5

Changes in VMT & registrations substantially less than traffic fatalities 1.20 1.10 Ratio to 2001 1.00 Registrations All VMT VMT/capita Fatalities 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0 1 00 2 00 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 00 6 0 0 7 00 8 00 9 01 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 6 Trends in VMT by Area Type 1.30 1.20 Indexed Total, Rural and Urban VMT Urban Rural Fatality Rate 2.5 times Urban 1.10 Total 1.00 Rural Urban Total 0.90 Rural 0.80

Rural to Total Ratio .39 to .33 02 to 13 0.70 7 Trends in VMT by road type 1.30 1.20 1.10 Ratio to 2001 1.00 Urban freeway Urban arterial Other urban Rural freeway Rural arterial Other rural 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40

0 1 00 2 0 0 3 00 4 0 0 5 00 6 0 0 7 00 8 00 9 01 0 01 1 01 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 Trends relative to 2001 in fatalities by road type (normalized to 2001) 1.20 1.10 Ratio to 2001 1.00 0.90 Urban freeway Urban arterial Other urban Rural freeway Rural arterial

Other rural 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0 1 00 2 0 0 3 00 4 0 0 5 00 6 0 0 7 00 8 00 9 01 0 01 1 01 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 Trends in frequencies of all traffic fatalities by age group, normalized to 2001 Are less traveling Traveling less? 1.20 1.10 1.00

Ratio to 2001 0.90 0.80 65+ 26-64 All 18-25 15-17 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 Persons under 26 accounted for 46.3% of the reduction in fatalities 2008-2011. They were 31.1% of fatalities in 2007, 26.1% in 2011. 0.30 0 1 00 2 00 3 00 4 0 05 00 6 0 07 00 8 0 09 0 10 0 11 0 12 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 10 Newer model vehicles disproportionately declined (frequencies normalized to 2001) 1.4 1.2 Ratio to 2001 1.0 0.8 Greater than 10 yrs 6 to 10 yrs All 3 to 5 yrs Less than 3 yrs 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 00 4 00 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 01 0 01 1 0 1 2 20 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 Modeling State by State INDEPENDENT VARIABLES MODELS FATALITIES IN TRAFFIC CRASHES 12 Independent Variable Categories STATE EXPENDITURES ECONOMIC EXPOSURE

VEHICLE 13 LAWS AND BEHAVIORS Independent Variables STATE EXPENDITURES Capital ECONOMIC Safety Maintenance GDP per capita Median income Admin/Research Labor force Planning Employment size & rate, by age & sex Law enforcement &

safety education. Unemployment size & rate, by age & sex HSIP projects Fuel Price and Tax 14 Independent Variables VEHICLE Electronic Stability Control LAWS & BEHVIORS Belt laws & belt use rates EXPOSURE MC helmet laws & use rates VMT, by road type & by vehicle type Child restraint laws & use rates. Vehicle registrations by type Mobile Laws & observed use.

Population by age group DUI laws & Alcohol consumption . Road miles, by type 15 We Hypothesize In Traffic In Variable = Crashes Laws and Usage Unemployment rates Fuel price & fuel tax State expenditures on MC Helmet Child Restraint DUI laws (BAC, fines, suspension, imprisonment, ignition interlock, superdrunk) Safety Belts Cell phone & texting laws Projects

Programs ESC penetration rates 16 We Hypothesize In Variable = In Traffic Crashes GDP per capita Hand-held device usage rates. Employment size & rate, particularly for young. VMT, particularly rural non-interstate Alcohol consumption. Vehicle registrations 17 DATA Needs Infrastructure

safety improvement data (e.g. rumble strips, median barrier) Enforcement and program data (e.g. citationas, convictions, etc) Driver License Data reliability issues Potential Studies Urban-Rural Suburban & Edge Evaluating Impact of Safety-LU 18 Evaluating impact of Best Practices

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