Rooftop India Energy Forum 16 Nov2018 New Delhi. E4U Lets build a beautiful world around Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 1 E4U Glance of Smart Planet Walk to the future, as I can see Disclaimer : The contents in next slides are perception of future life style considering various ongoing technological advancement across globe and their information or content as available in internet. These are mere perceptions and not organized from any verified facts. Any reference to any brand, technology etc. if any, is without any insider information and without any intention to hurt any sentiments or to form any opinion. This is just extrapolation of trends more with imagination looking into how things got changed in past. The perception can be thus subjective and we request and advise the readers to please dont make any prejudices or bias or opinion based on this. This is not based on any research and neither it claims any authenticity of any data represented. Thus it is just to be taken as indicative perspective only on what can emerge in future. Author don't take any responsibility of any of his views and thus dont want to enter into any contradictions with anyone whatsoever may be the reasons. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy
2 E4U Walk in to Future New Delhi, India, Monday, 15th April 2035 DARK HUMER NEWS NETWORK Todays Life Rate : Drinking Water - Rs. 5000.00 (Normal) Rs. 1500.00 / Ltr (Subsidized), Breathing Air Rs. 5000.00 / Ltr Food Packet Rs. 20000.00 / Kg Temp min 35 deg, Max 58 Deg Todays Highlights : - Life Tax rate increased to 55.5% - Crimination is banned, upto 50 lacs penalty imposed Private & Confidential,
Antriksh Photonergy and 10 years imprisonment (no wastage of wood,(c)no electricity) 3 Welcome to the next Around 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and market share 85% worldwide of all photo film / paper. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they got bankrupt. Industrial Revolution. What is talked in social Media about future? What happened to Nokia, Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year! and most may not be seeing it coming? Did any predictions in 1998 that 3 years later Anyone would never take pictures on paper film again?
The Exponential Age. The digital cameras were invented in 1975, first ones only had 10,000 pixels but as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years!! It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, Health, Autonomous and Electric cars, Education, 3D printing, Agriculture and Jobs. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 4 Artificial Intelligence: Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 510 years. Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now Gadgets, more the More biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties. Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. Computers are growing I very fast pace, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers now don't get jobs easily. With IBM Watson, one can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So alert to law students. There might be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. This is also true for other sectors as well. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans. The app can tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
electricity demand! Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 5 In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. Autonomous cars: You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 0.1 million km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 6 Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. Engineers from car manufacturers will be terrified of Techies. Automobiles: Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without
accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear. Cities: Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood. More E-cars, more electricity demand, in Parking's! Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 7 Health: Online continuous health diagnostics technologies will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, easily and affordable. Smart gadget to track your health online
will be available. There will be companies who will build medical device (such as "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with you phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. Human life span Longevity: The average life span increases by 3 months per year now. Four years ago, it used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. This increment will be increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long time, probably way more than 100. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 8 Business opportunities: For niche you want to go in, ask yourself: How long in the future, it will remain?" and if the answer is less, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work, forget the idea.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time. Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to be failure in the 21st century. Virtual offices, SOHO setups, pay per use setups!! More self employed / on contract job works will be for survival. Pay per hour basis? Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 9
Agriculture: There will be a affordable agricultural robots in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Crops will need much less water. The vegetable processed alternate to milk products will be available may be cheaper than animal produced? More agricultural surfaces will be available with better productivity. Some startups will bring insect protein may be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects). Conventional grains and fruits might start disappearing due to climate change and new survival food More Gadgets, sources, eating more electricity demand in fields! practices will emerge.
Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 10 Education: Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class free information and education. Every child can access everything from any academy of First World countries. Free Apps & software for underprivileged in various local languages will make children in far deserted, remote, abandoned, rural places also fluent in English within half a year with right mix of skill certifications and virtual work exposures making them skilled employable or entrepreneurs. Easy access to all, more 3D, video, virtual, internet based teachings and on the job skill developments. More
Gadgets, more electricity demand! Vocational, short courses will start taking main stream. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 11 Energy: Electricity will become accessible across due to distributed generation, renewable integration and that will be incredibly cheap and clean Solar production on an exponential curve for 30 years and now impact is visible. Now, more solar energy installed per year worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies might be out of business by 2025.
Water: We have enough water in most places, but have scarce drinking water. Easy electricity will help accessing cheap and abundant water. Desalination now needs max 2kWh per cubic meter. Pumping and transfer will be economical. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, at affordable cost? Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 12 E4U Smart City design How to integrate these emerging trends Emerging new demands Increased platforms, different forms, complex requirements, More Energy across!! Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 13 E4U Typical Electrical Energy Dilemma 70-80%
Energy Resources 70-80% Generation 50-60% T&D Use X 2 Effective X8? utilization is not even 1/4th ? Do we have 8 times the resources with increasing demand??? Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 14 E4U Whats need to be done? Smart Cities
Energy Efficient Green Technologies 1 2 3 Conservation of Resources - Optimize Increase Capacity Improve Efficiency Integration of Renewable Green Adopt efficient techniques to optimize consumption consumption
and minimize wastages - Energy Audit & Efficient Management. technologies. Smart citizen : life style to minimize wastages. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 15 E4U Solar Rooftop : 40GW by 2020 Challenges and Innovations to Achieve Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 16 E4U Future Trend for Solar in India o According to forecasts, India will become the fourth largest PV market behind China, the
United States and Japan. o 100 GW target by 2022, Consisting of o 60 GW On-Grid and o 40 GW Rooftop and Off-Grid Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 17 E4U Conventional Grid Colossal Waste of Energy and Water in conversion process Mining = 100 % + Energy used in Mining and Gradation of Coal Transport Thermal Plant Storage of Coal Boiler Bus bar Rotor
Turbine Steam Step Up + Step Down When it reaches the consumer at 11 KV Consumer =4% Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 18 E4U Distributed Generation o No doubt that Distributed Generation i.e. Solar Rooftop & Off-Grid will be a Game Changer o However, it is a large challenge requiring collaborative efforts by all concerned agencies
Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 19 Main Challenges in Rooftop Implementation E4U o Lack of right AWARENESS o Lack of Organized Knowledge o Small players & inadequate infrastructure o DISCOM Resistance, Education and Training o Availability of Net Meters, Good Quality equipment's o Complex approval procedures o Disjointed Policies & Regulations o Availability of Finance at affordable rates o Complex Subsidy Disbursement Process & Delays o Prompt and Efficient After sales service Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 20 E4U NSEFI National Solar Energy Federation of India (NSEFI) is an umbrella organization of Solar Manufacturers, Developers both PV and Thermal, EPC Contractors, MNRE Channel Partners,
Financial Institutions, Balance of Plant and component manufacturers & suppliers and other stake holders such as Power Exchanges, Solar Appliances manufacturers, Service Providers, NGOs and all the stakeholders of solar energy in India. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 21 Solar Rooftop PV : Key Aspects E4U Most leading nations of the world are promoting Rooftop Solar via either of the following policy supports. - Tax Equity Instruments. - Direct Tax benefits. - Fixed Feed in Tariffs. - Variable Feed in Tariffs. Indias Rooftop Solar Incentives Commercial Segment AD Benefit of upto 40% /year.
Local tax incentives as per state schemes. Additional Residential/Institutional Rooftop Incentives. Subsidy 30-70% of benchmark/lower project cost. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 24 Advantages of Solar Rooftop PV E4U Commercial & Technical o Lower Average Cost of Supply of Solar Energy. o Reduction in line/T&D losses ( improves efficiency of actual solar energy use). o Demand Side Management/ Improved power quality.( Large RE related grid issues) o No land acquisition. o Low Gestation period. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 25 SWOT Analysis Solar in India STRENGTH o o o o
WEAKNESS o Ample sun: ~300 sunny days/ yr Ease of installment Savings (consumer Net metering) Environment friendly High initial installation cost & regular maintenance. o Higher Cost of production (Rs 15 - Rs 20 p.u) against conventional (Rs 2 - Rs 5 p.u). o Lesser Reliability (Fog cloudy days). o Lack of Knowledge/ technical support. OPPORTUNITY o o o o o E4U THREAT Aggressive targets by Govt. Govt. support (Subsidy) Best alternative fuel (Electric vehicles). Environmental concern w.r.t Nuclear/ Coal
More players >> Competition >> Customer benefit. o Inferior quality Indian solar cells (against Australia/ Germany) thus further pushing Uranium import. o Only large investors can survive o China has competitive edge with lower cost. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 26 E4U ACCESSABILITY % of ~300 million (22 population w/o electricity) AVAILABILITY e 11 % Peak Shortag PREDOMINANCE
ational SEBs run at High oper n & Losses, Lack innovatio Customer centricity POWER SECTOR ORDABILITY : INDIAN DG sets AFFFACTSHEET y b d te a er en g 80 BUs rviving All most all SEBs su dy on Govt aid/ Subsi diesel annually (~15 MTs of oil) Source : World Wide Web
ALTERNATIVE For Economic stability, these issues need to be addressed at all levels Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 27 2022 Capacity extrapolation & Impact..!!! E4U Assuming achievement of 175 GW RE addition: o Installed Capacity would be 562 GW (85% growth) o Thermal Capacity would be 56% of Overall (46% growth) o Renewable share from 14% to 31% (300% growth) o Total Estimated Generation of 1,577 BUs (5.1% growth p.a)
o Renewable expected to contribute ~17% of Generation o Thermal 69% of Generation with PLF reduced to ~40% o Reduced Hydro ~11% of Generation Considering Renewable as Must Run, PLF of conventional plants would fall leading to increase in Avg. Unit Cost Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy Source for Capacity Projection other than RE: CEA Humongous Resource Mobilization Man Incremental requirement of 1.1 mn skilled manpower Project, Engineering, Construction/ Commissioning Monitoring, Operation & Maintenance Initial ramp-up of trained manpower
Machine Domestic Capacity ~1212 MW cells & 5620 MW Modules p.a. Modules majorly imported from China (having 70% import share) Rest equipment (Inverters) have similar outlook Import obligations Sustainable financing mechanism E4U Money Total Investment Required ~ Rs. 6,00,000 Crs ($ 90 Bn) over 6 Yrs. Solar Equipment to be ~4% of Indias Annual Import Bill Banks & FIs committed funding for 77 GW Capacity. PSUs committed ~20 GW Solar Capacity, whereas, Pvt. Sector committed ~ 263 GW Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 29
Enablers for Solar Rooftop Target of 40 GW SUSTAINI NG GROWTH Skill development, R&D CRITICAL BUILDING BLOCKS (Industry, Consumer Awareness & Providing Regulator & level playing field forUtility) investors ESSENTIAL FOUNDATION Ease of Net Metering, Fair deal for Discoms, Maximizing Rooftop space, Mandate to drive adoption after ecosystem in place Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy E4U Challenges in Rooftop Solar Financing E4U Commercial, Industrial & Institutions: 1. Difficulty in getting long term roof rights/ Lease & Credit strong PPAs with payment security and no termination/loan co-termination provisions.
2. Limited response from large corporate houses showing interest in RESCO business. 3. Generation of rooftop projects yet to be established and cannot be generalized, required specific roof analysis. 4. Seasonal load requirements may lead to longer payback period (e.g. Educational institutions ) 5. Uncertainty on future Industrial expansion which may lead to shifting of solar system. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 31 Way Forward- Rooftop Solar Financing E4U 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Support in form of AD/ other incentives should continue. Availability of low cost dedicated loans for Rooftop Solar to be promoted. Availability of project performance database on the installed systems under different states. Cash flow reliability assessment under different net metering schemes. Strengthening of technical expertise in project structuring for lenders comfort. Roof Lease Rights/ Power Purchase Agreements. Roof Shades and Strength analysis. Technical performance till loan tenure.
Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 32 E4U Key Drivers for Energy Storage In India Supporting the growth of intermittent renewable energy sources Introduction of ancillary service markets CERC working to introduce ancillary markets in India [Hz regulations] Micro grid opportunities for Special Economic Zones (SEZs) CERC working to mandate forecasting and scheduling of RE generation High quality grid power required for supporting high-technology manufacturing/industry
Power access to all by 2019 Electrifying an extra 400 million households, many of them off-grid requiring micro grid with energy storage Telecom Sector With over 300,000 telecom towers, need back up power using renewables Growing need for backup solutions for data centers National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) NEMMP putting 6-7 million electric and hybrid vehicles on the streets by 2020 Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh 33 Photonergy www.
E4Utech.com R e n e w a b l e i n n o v a ti o n b u s i n e s s p o r t a l Lets build a beautiful world around Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 34 Everything for You www. Energy for You E4Utech.com R e n e w a b l e i n n o v a ti o n b u s i n e s s p o r t a l To make best use of resources Collaborative Knowledge Sharing Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 35 Energy of Synergy Group of
Renewable, Power, T&D, & Energy Management Professionals Coming together to share there expertise at common place Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 36 Finance Taxation Legal O&M Town Planning Electrical, BMS, Security Design Solar Design Regulations Project Architect
& Civil Mechanical Design Smart U S E R www.e4utech.com Govt. Regulation (Intelligent Interface) Energy & Smart Management Planners O&M Planning Mobility & Transport Water & Waste Water Tenders
Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy Product & Technology providers Contractors & Service Providers 37 Everything for You E4Utech.com Energy for You www. C o l l a b o ra ti v e K n o w l e d g e s h a r i n g R e n e w a b l e i n n o v a ti o n b u s i n e s s p o r t a l One stop for all i nformation o
o o o o o o News Market place Social community Micro Blogging Job portal Shopping Cart Business tools, estimation tools Etc. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 38 1 Information Market, Policies, Trends & Technology, workshop & events, Environment, Project & Solutions etc. One stop knowledge place for Renewable, Power & Energy Management professionals Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy
39 Final concept functionalities : One stop shop for all solar related activities Extendable to other sectors (renewables, smart city, energy management, green buildings, water and waste water management.) covering these expectations : o Membership based - Allows profile creation for Individual, company, users and advisors, service providers, manufactures, sellers, retailers, students, researchers, executives o Contribution based - Free registration, Contribute and earn points, Use points per use. Contribution by sharing knowledge and getting appreciated (Earn Points per appreciation) or donation (Get points in appreciation of donation). Member driven services, knowledge and no differentiation on services / access level. o News, Feeds & Newsletters, Policy, Updates - Govt. Updates(MNRE, SECI, IREDA, REC, state agencies etc.), News Papers, Mag & Consultants update, Litigation and petitions with CERC and state ERC etc. updates, Industry Associations updates all in one place. o Tenders & Alerts - short description (free access), Alerts, due dates reminders, tender analysis, Risk analysis o Leads and opportunity Sharing - platform to share & collaborate as per the preferred skill set/ choices. o Expert views / blogs & Business insights interactions - Currency fluctuations and international product price insights, Market dynamics reviews and insights o Events and conferences Seminars, webinars, launches, trainings, Networking, Forums Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 40 2 Consultation Design, Engineering,
Trainings & Workshops World best latest technologies brought closer to Industry and users Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 41 One stop shop for all solar related consultation needs o FAQs - Solar Assessment online (knowing buildings solar worth, expected generation, estimates etc.) o Research & reports - technology evaluation, evolvement, new concepts, ideas, reviews, analysis etc. o Installation Database - Case studies and installed base references (YTD data of capacity installed, demographic wise etc.), feedback and assessments o Enabling Manufacturing - Go-to market studies, Product review, Business promotion, new product / technology business Development o Consultancy & Advisory services - Feasibility Analysis, DPR, Tender preparation, Bid Management, Owners
Engineer, project management, Policy advocacy, representations, suggestions, Subsidy / CERC / Regulators liaison etc. o Design and engineering - Projects, Audit and assessments of the designs, performance, generation etc. o Industry experts advisory - to provide specific guidance, On-demand services - place to post question/problem. o Project Financing advisory o Legal & Contractual advisory Sector specific services o Land acquisition & regulatory services Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 42 One stop place for Skill development, employment Training/Workshops
o Skill development, courses, training, assessment & certifications, Job sourcing & placements o Offer online and offline trainings o Connect various training agencies Human Resource o Acquire Skilled labor - technicians - training/local supply provide training /certificate to same o List and connect skilled people for installation (electrical, civil), O&M, and ancillary services o Placements Content expectations : o Knowledge Based - articles, videos, case studies, blogs, forums o General description of different kind of systems and their applications o Financial and Regulatory aspects o Case studies & Videos o Forum for discussion o Guest Blogs from industry veterans / ex-govt senior officials on policy, etc. Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 43 3 Execution Turnkey Project Management Engineering, Procurement, Supply Installation, Testing, Commissioning Operation & Maintenance One stop, End to end Solutions with satisfaction
Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 44 One stop place for project Management & Execution o o o o o o o o o Business MIS Dashboard for leads, pipeline, orders, WIP, deliveries credentials, Case Studies, references, certifications, accreditations Business projects - to work out a hybrid system (consisting of software and people) for managing and estimating demands, requirements, optimizing logistics, finding best deal, etc. Liaison with MNRE / State Nodel agencies for policy, subsidy etc. Procurement and logistics - Platform for Individuals, EPIC companies, End-user to find trusted Venders & partner, aggregate requirement, Request and Compare Quotes, Place Order, Track Performance / Provide Ratings Service provider network - Find pre-qualified local installers, Connect to SI / EPC companies, Business development- aggregating business and distribute to the group / associates Supplier Vendor Classification / Certification / Rating to provide independent rating / comparison platform/forum for interested people / general public elements and criteria to be developed for Rating a vendor utilizing existing certifications (IEC, BIS, MNRE), and providing easy to understand visual representation of same so that people can find it easy to compare. using these ratings and classifications for (i) our own EPIC work (ii) as support to third party EPIC contractor.
this process can be automated O&M AMC & After Sales Support , O&M Private & Confidential, (c) Antriksh Photonergy 45 Projects in Smart City, Solar PV, Green Buildings, Smart Grid, Power T&D, Energy optimization, share assignments for Smart Consulting Smart Consulting One stop Business consulting assignments for Design / EPC in Smart City & Renewables (Solar PV / Green Building / Smart Grid / City / Home), to make the world beautiful around us! Antriksh Photonergy LLP
[email protected] +91 99715 39955; +91 9013248005; www.photonergy.weebly.com RZ D1/100, FF, Gali #5, Mahavir Enclave, New Delhi -110045 : Opp Sulabh Int on Palam-Dabri Road, Near Khatana Dairy Private & Confidential, (c)Landmark Antriksh Photonergy 46
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