Lecture Presentation to accompany Investment Analysis ...

Lecture Presentation to accompany Investment Analysis ...

Chapter 4: Portfolio Portfolio Management Management Performance Performance 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. WHAT IS REQUIRED OF A PORTFOLIO MANAGER? There are two major requirements of a portfolio manager: 1. The ability to derive above-average returns for a given risk class

2. The ability to diversify the portfolio completely to eliminate all unsystematic risk, relative to the portfolios benchmark 7-2 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Treynor Portfolio Performance Measure Treynor developed the first composite measure of portfolio performance that included risk. He postulated two components of risk: (1) risk produced by general market fluctuations and (2)

risk resulting from unique fluctuations in the portfolio securities. To identify risk due to market fluctuations, of return for a portfolio over time and the rates of return for an appropriate market portfolio, 7-3 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Treynor Portfolio Performance Measure Treynor was interested in a measure of performance that would apply to all investors regardless of their risk preferences.

Building on developments in capital market theory, he introduced a risk-free asset that could be combined with different portfolios to form a straight portfolio possibility line. He showed that rational, risk-averse investors would always prefer portfolio possibility lines with larger slopes because such high-slope lines would place investors on higher utility levels. 7-4 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Treynor = (Average Return-FRF)/beta the average rate of return for portfolio i during a

specified time period : the slope of the funds characteristic line during that time period (this indicates the portfolios relative volatility) the average rate of return on a risk-free investment during the same time period 7-5 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. A larger T value indicates a larger slope and a better portfolio for all investors (regardless of their risk preferences). Because the numerator of this ratio is the risk premium

and the denominator is a measure of risk, the total expression indicates the portfolios risk premium return per unit of risk. All risk-averse investors would prefer to maximize this value. Note that the risk variable beta measures stematic risk and tells us nothing about the diversification of the portfolio. It implicitly assumes a completely diversified portfolio, which means that systematic risk is the relevant risk measure. 7-6 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Treynor Portfolio Performance

Measure Comparing a portfolios T value to a similar measure for the market portfolio indicates whether the portfolio would plot above the SML. Calculate the T value for the aggregate market as follows: = 7-7 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. In this expression, M equals 1.0 (the M equals 1.0 (the

markets beta) and indicates the slope of the SML. Therefore, a portfolio with a higher T value than the market portfolio plots above the SML, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance. 7-8 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. How to use Treynor Measure? To understand how to use and interpret this measure of performance, suppose that during the most recent 10-year period, the average annual total rate of

return (including dividends) on an aggregate market portfolio, such as the S&P 500, was 14 percent (RM = 0.14) and the average nominal rate of return on government T-bills was 8 percent (RFR = 0.08). Assume that, as administrator of a large pension fund that has been divided among three money managers during the past 10 years, you must decide whether to renew your investment management contracts with all three managers. To do this, you must measure how they have performed. 7-9 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. How to use Treynor Measure?

Investment Manager Average annual return beta Tp W 12%

0.9 0.044 X 16% 1.05 0.076 Y

18% 1.20 0.083 TM=(0.14-0.08)/1.00=0.060 These results indicate that Investment Manager W not only ranked the lowest of the three managers but did not perform as well as the aggregate market. In contrast, both X and Y beat the market portfolio, and Manager Y performed somewhat better than Manager X. In terms of the SML, both of their portfolios plotted above the line, as shown in the following graph

7-10 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. How to use Treynor Measure? Very poor return performance or very good performance with very low risk may yield negative T values. An example of poor performance is a portfolio with both an average rate of return below the risk-free rate and a positive beta. For instance, in the preceding case, assume that a fourth portfolio manager, Z, had a portfolio beta of 0.50 but an average rate of return of only 0.07. The T value would be

7-11 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. How to use Treynor Measure? =-0.02 Obviously, this performance would plot below the SML in the graph 7-12 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 7-13

2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The Sharpe Measure Sharpe likewise conceived of a composite measure to evaluate the performance of mutual funds.6 The measure followed closely his earlier work on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), dealing specifically with the capital market line (CML). The Sharpe measure of portfolio performance (designated S) is stated as follows: 7-14

2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The Sharpe Measure where: = the average rate of return for portfolio i during a specified time period = the average rate of return on risk-free assets during the same time period

= the standard deviation of the rate of return for portfolio i during the time period 7-15 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The Sharpe Measure This composite measure of portfolio performance clearly is similar to the Treynor measure; However, it seeks to measure the total risk of the portfolio by including the standard deviation of returns rather than considering only the systematic risk summarized by beta. Because the numerator is the portfolios risk

premium, this measure indicates the risk premium return earned per unit of total risk. 7-16 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The Sharpe Measure In terms of capital market theory, this portfolio performance measure uses total risk to compare portfolios to the CML, whereas the Treynor measure examines portfolio performance in relation to the SML. Finally, notice that in practice the standard deviation can be calculated using either

total portfolio returns or portfolio returns in excess of the risk-free rate. 7-17 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Application Assume that RM = 0.14 and RFR= 0.08. Suppose you are told that the standard deviation of the annual rate of return for the market portfolio over the past 10 years was 20% (M = 0.20). Now you want to examine the performance of the following portfolios:

7-18 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Application 7-19 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Comments The D portfolio had the lowest risk premium return per unit of total risk, failing even to perform as well as the aggregate market portfolio. In contrast, Portfolios E and F performed better than the aggregate market: Portfolio E did better than

Portfolio F. Given the market portfolio results during this period, it is possible to draw the CML. If we plot the results for Portfolios D, E, and F on this graph, we see that Portfolio D plots below the line, whereas the E and F portfolios are above the line, indicating superior riskadjusted performance. 7-20 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Plot of Performance on CML 7-21 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Treynor versus Sharpe Measure The Sharpe portfolio performance measure uses the standard deviation of returns as the measure of total risk, whereas the Treynor performance measure uses beta (systematic risk). The Sharpe measure, therefore, evaluates the portfolio manager on the basis of both rate of return performance and diversification. 7-22 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Treynor versus Sharpe Measure For a completely diversified portfolio, one without any

unsystematic risk, the two measures give identical rankings because the total variance of the completely diversified portfolio is its systematic variance. Alternatively, a poorly diversified portfolio could have a high ranking on the basis of the Treynor performance measure but a much lower ranking on the basis of the Sharpe performance measure. Any difference in rank would come directly from a difference in diversification. 7-23 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Treynor versus Sharpe Measure Therefore, these two performance measures

provide complementary yet different information, and both measures should be used. If you are dealing with a group of well-diversified portfolios, as many mutual funds are, the two measures provide similar rankings. 7-24 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The Jensen measure The Jensen measure is similar to the measures already discussed because it is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM).

The CAPM can be written as follows: jj 7-25 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The Jensen measure The j value indicates whether the portfolio manager is superior or inferior in market timing and/or stock selection. A superior manager has a positive (or alpha) value because of the consistent ) value because of the consistent positive residuals. In contrast, an inferior managers returns

consistently fall short of expectations based on the CAPM model giving consistently negative residuals. In such a case, is a negative value. 7-26 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Exercise 7-27 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

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