Northern Minnesota & Ontario Peatlands Section Forest ...

Northern Minnesota & Ontario Peatlands Section Forest ...

Northern Minnesota & Ontario Peatlands Section Forest Resource Management Plan Harvest Scenario Webinar October 2015 Northern Minnesota & Ontario Peatlands (NMOP) 2 ECS Subsections - Agassiz Lowlands - Littlefork-Vermilion Uplands 6 Forestry Admin Areas 9 Wildlife Admin Areas 2 DNR Regions - Northeast Region - Northwest Region Slide 2 Balancing Multiple Values and Objectives Stakeholder interests, statutes, and policies direct DNR to manage forestlands for multiple values, including:

Habitat values Ecological /environmental values Economic values of forest products Sustainability of forest resources to support all values DNR balances these multiple interests by: Developing forest management plans (SFRMP) that incorporate DNR policies and balance multiple objectives Applying department policies and SFRMP direction in day-to-day operations (e.g., stand level management prescriptions) Slide 3 Goals of SFRMP Process Consideration of broad resource management issues affecting vegetation management. Resulting in a sustainable forest management plan that provides: Strategic forest management direction, and, A 10-year list of stands that will be examined for possible timber harvest or other management Consider forest certification standards: Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI)

Slide 4 Primary SFRMP Products SFRMPs identify both: 1. Strategic forest management directions such as: General Direction Statements (GDS) Strategies, Desired Future Conditions (DFC), and 2. A 10-year list of stands that: Will be field visited during plan implementation Provides the best opportunity to implement the plans strategic direction through timber harvest or other management. Slide 5 SFRMP Stakeholder Involvement 200 Stakeholders, and the public, are invited to become involved in the SFRMP process through 3 webinars: 1. Webinar 1: Background and Introduction to SFRMPs; Can be viewed on line at: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/subsection/active.html

2. Webinar 2: Alternative Harvest Scenarios 3. Webinar 3: Review of the Draft SFRMP Slide 6 Webinar 2 Review of Alternative Harvest Scenarios The DNR developed 4 harvest scenarios to explore the implications and trade-offs associated with different planning decisions This webinar describes these scenarios and their projected associated outcomes DNR is asking for stakeholder feedback on these scenarios via a series of survey questions at the end of this webinar Surveys, comments and questions will be accepted until October 31, 2015. Slide 7 Role of Harvest Schedule Modeling in SFRMP Informs planning decisions by providing a way to examine: The implications of different planning decisions through the use of timber harvest scenarios The relative sensitivity of projected outcomes to different planning decisions

Optimizes the selection of the 10-year stand exam list by incorporating goals and criteria identified in the plan. Slide 8 Modeling Parameters Varied in the Harvest Scenarios The modeling parameters that we are varying across the 4 scenarios are: Even-flow Lowland Conifer Old Growth (LCOG) Cover type conversion Additional older forest These are the modeling parameters with the greatest potential effect on model outcomes and for which DNR will make decisions prior to the final stand selection model run DNR is not seeking input on other model parameters that are constant across the scenarios. Slide 9

Modeling Parameters Held Constant in All Scenarios DNR is not seeking input on established constant modeling parameters, such as: Established normal rotation ages Thinning regimes for forest types that are typically thinned or managed as uneven-aged types (e.g., red pine, northern hardwoods) Applying a standard 3% discount rate to estimate the current value of projected future timber revenues. Slide 10 Even Flow Even Flow describes the variability in estimated timber harvest over time compared to a long-term average. Range of Even Flow values explored in the 4 scenarios: Tight - 5% variation in harvest volume over time (overall and for each forest type). Produces more consistent harvest volumes decade to decade. Moderate - 20% variation in harvest volume over time (overall and for each forest type) Relaxed 40% variation in harvest volume over time (overall and for each forest type). Produces more variable harvest volumes decade to decade.

See next slide for an example. Slide 11 Even Flow Example Moderate Level (20%) model allows variation up 20% projected long-term running average model allows variation down 20% Slide 12 Lowland Conifer Old Growth (LCOG) LCOG describes the amount of productive (non-stagnant) black spruce lowland and tamarack forest types reserved from being selected by the model Intended to represent possible levels of LCOG designation Range of values explored in the scenarios: 1.5% reserved, equivalent to the approximate amount of old growth forest designated on upland forest types. 5% reserved, a rough mid-point between the lower and higher amounts 10% reserved, the statewide average of productive lowland conifer forest types that have been temporarily reserved as Ecologically

Important Lowland Conifer pending completion of LCOG designations. Slide 13 Cover Type Conversions Cover type conversions describe the amount of assumed or desired change from one forest type to another Range of values explored in the 4 scenarios: No Change - assumes no change from current mix of forest types on DNR lands in the landscape. Original SFRMP - continues conversion goals established in previous SFRMPs For the NMOP, the model reduces the aspen and birch types by 5% each decade, with corresponding increases in jack pine, white pine, red pine, balsam fir, white spruce, and upland white cedar. Climate Change Response - conversion goals that represent a possible response to climate change effects over the 50-year projection period For NMOP, the model reduces aspen and birch types by 1.4% each decade with corresponding gains in northern hardwoods, red pine, white pine, jack pine and white spruce. Slide 14 Additional Older Forest Describes the amount of forest over normal rotation age that the model maintains on DNR lands, based on an all-ownership

assessment of current forest age-class distributions. Applies to forest types managed primarily with even-aged management (aspen, birch, red pine, jack pine, black spruce, tamarack). Range of values explored in the 4 scenarios: No additional the model does not try to maintain any older forest on DNR lands included in the plan Some the model tries to maintain roughly 4% older forest on DNR lands for certain forest types. More the model tries to maintain roughly 8% older forest on DNR lands for certain forest types. Slide 15 The Mix of Parameters in the 4 Harvest Scenarios Parameter Even Flow LCOG Cover type change Addl Older Forest (if needed for certain forest types) Scenario A

Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Tight 5% Moderate 20% Relaxed 40% Relaxed 40% 10% 5% 10% 1.5% Climate Change Response

More Original SFRMP Original SFRMP Some More No Change No Additional Slide 16 Projected Outcomes Each scenario is evaluated against four projected outcomes: 1. Projected harvested volume in cords The estimated amount of timber available to harvest. Timber volume is a measurable target specified in DNRs 2015-2025 Strategic Conservation Agenda. Important for DNR and forest industry to understand the volume of timber that might be expected in the future. 2. Projected stumpage revenue from harvested cords

Stumpage revenue (timber sales revenue) means gross revenue from timber. DNR contributes net revenue as part of its responsibility to the Permanent School Trust Fund (Trust). Timber sales revenue provides funding to the DNR. Timber sales revenue supports local and state economies. Slide 17 Projected Outcomes (cont.) 3. Projected acreage of older forest Older forest refers to forest over normal rotation age. Only forest types managed primarily as even-aged. Older forests provide larger diameter products, habitat and aesthetic values. 4. Projected acreage of younger forest Younger forest age varies by forest type but generally refers to forest 0 to 30 years of age. Only forest types managed primarily as even-aged. Younger forest offers habitat values and provides for future industry needs. Slide 18 Projected Outcomes are for Relative Comparison Numerous factors potentially affect actual outcomes Data accuracy (e.g., inventory, yield tables)

Generalized modeling assumptions Actual 10-year stand selection and adjustments (e.g., for specific spatial considerations) How spatial components of the model are applied Site-level considerations Outcomes assume all stands selected by the model will be harvested Historical evidence shows that roughly 25-30% of selected stands do not result in a timber harvest. Slide 19 Projected Outcomes Are for DNR SFRMP Lands Outcomes do not reflect other forests on the landscape, including: Forests on non-DNR lands (i.e., federal, county, private) DNR forests within State Parks, and Scientific and Natural Areas. Formally designated DNR Old Growth Other forest types managed primarily by selective harvesting (e.g., northern hardwoods, white pine, lowland hardwoods). Slide 20 Outcomes are Projected Out 50 Years

The modeling scenarios project outcomes 50 years into the future. Scenario parameters are held constant over the 50year projection period. Allows evaluation of the potential long-term implications of current planning decisions. SFRMPs are revisited every 10-years to reassess actual conditions and reconsider plan direction. Slide 21 Scenario Modeling Outcomes for NMOP: Modeled Volume Available - All Species 400,000 Modeled Cords Available 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 A 150,000 B

C D 100,000 50,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

45 50 Years Into the Future Slide 22 Example of Specific Tree Species: Modeled Volume of Aspen Modeled Cords Available 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 A 60,000 B

C D 40,000 20,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Years Into the Future 35

40 45 50 Slide 23 Example of Specific Tree Species: Modeled Volume of Lowland Black Spruce Modeled Cords Available 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 A B C D

10,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Years Into the Future 35 40 45 50

Slide 24 D is c o u n t e d S t u m p a g e R e v e n u e s in d o lla r s ( 3 % D is c o u n t R a t e ) Scenario Model Outcomes for NMOP: Projected Stumpage Revenue in 10 & 50 Years 160,000,000 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 A 80,000,000 B C 152,178,985 150,997,340

48,394,960 49,241,600 D 155,485,460 139,667,270 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 44,321,375 56,430,215 Slide 25 P e rc e n t O ld e r F o re s t Scenario Model Outcomes for NMOP: Projected Older Forest % for Lowland Conifers 100%

90% 80% A 70% B C D 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 5 10

15 20 25 30 35 Years Into the Future 40 45 50 Slide 26 P e rc e n t O ld e r F o re s t Scenario Model Outcomes for NMOP: Projected Older Forest % for Upland Conifers

100% 90% 80% 70% A 60% B C D 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 Years Into the Future 40 45 50 Slide 27 P e rc e n t O ld e r F o re s t Scenario Model Outcomes for NMOP: Projected Older Forest % for Upland Hardwoods

100% 90% 80% 70% A B C D 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 Years Into the Future 40 45 50 Slide 28 P e rc e n t Y o u n g e r F o re s t Scenario Modeling Outcomes for NMOP: Projected Young Forest % for Lowland Conifers

100% A 90% B C D 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 Years Into the Future 40 45 50 Slide 29 P e rc e n t Y o u n g e r F o re s t Scenario Model Outcomes for NMOP:

Projected Young Forest % for Upland Conifers 100% A 90% B C D 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Years Into the Future Slide 30 P e rc e n t Y o u n g e r F o re s t

Scenario Model Outcomes for NMOP: Projected Young Forest % for Upland Hardwoods 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% A 0 5 10 B 15

20 C 25 30 D 35 Years Into the Future 40 45 50 Slide 31 Modeling Scenarios Report This presentation summarizes analysis included in the report entitled Description of the Northern

Minnesota & Ontario Peatlands SFRMP Modeling The Modeling Scenarios Report was prepared by DNRs Forest Modeler and is available as a technical background document (pdf file) at: http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/subsection/nmop/sfrmp_nmopmodeling.pdf Slide 32 Your Input Comprehensive forest management results from balancing many interests, including yours. Please complete the survey that follows, and comment on these parameters, scenarios and outcomes, so that your interests are considered. All comments will be evaluated and considered as the NMOP planning team prepares the draft NMOP SFRMP Slide 33 How to provide Your input Complete the survey no later than October 31, 2015 See survey at: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/PGLPRNS In addition to the survey, written comments may also be directed to: Jon Drimel, Minnesota DNR Forestry, 3296 State Park Road NE, Bemidji, MN 56601;

or email to [email protected] Slide 34 SFRMP Contact Minnesota DNR thanks you for your time and interest in the SFRMP process! For questions on the NMOP SFRMP and modeling scenarios contact: Jon Drimel 3296 State Park Road NE Bemidji, MN 56601 Phone 218.308.2381 Email to [email protected] Slide 35

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