Nutrition Transition and Agricultural Transformation in Africa: Whats changed? Will Masters Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy & Department of Economics, Tufts University www.nutrition.tufts.edu | http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters Johns Hopkins SAIS Global Agriculture Seminar 21 September 2017 Citation for main results: W.A. Masters, N.Z. Rosenblum and R.G. Alemu, Agricultural transformation, nutrition transition and food policy in Africa: Preston Curves reveal new stylized facts, in review at Journal of Development Studies. Among this months news from Africa: Also this, the following day:
Sugary drinks tax coming in April PARLIAMENT - While there has still not been an agreement on the exact amount of tax to be imposed on sugar-sweetened drinks, it looks set to go ahead in 2018. The tax was first proposed about two years ago by Treasury as it was seen to be an effective tool to halt diabetes and obesity both ailments fueled by the consumption of sugary drinks. The race against Malthus has changed
Fast productivity growth in global agriculture means we can now focus on nutrition, and on lagging regions Note: Index is arithmetically weighted to 1977-79=100. Data shown are for internationally traded commodities (coffee, cocoa, tea, rice, wheat, maize, sugar, beef, lamb, banana, palm oil, cotton, jute, wool, hides, tobacco, rubber and timber), relative to a global index of unit values for manufactured goods exported from industrialized countries. Source: Fuglie (2015), from Pfaffenzeller (2011) and Grilli & Yang (1988). The agriculture-to-nutrition transition in food supplies differs greatly by region Horizontal movements = more (or less) food Diagonal movements = more and different foods
Source: W.A. Masters (2016), Assessment of Current Diets: Recent Trends by Income and Region. Working Paper 4 for the Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition. Calculated from FAO Food Balance Sheets, http://faostat3.fao.org/download/FB/FBS/E (June 2015). The escape from Malthus depends on slowing total population growth and using less land per person Globally, the whole world's rural population is already near its peak and will soon decline 10,000,000.0 9,000,000.0 8,000,000.0Total 7,000,000.0Rural 6,000,000.0Urban 5,000,000.0 an b r
u % 0 >5 2008 in 4,000,000.0 3,000,000.0 2,000,000.0 peak rural is 2022 1,000,000.0 0.0 Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.
South Asia experienced some of the worlds most severe Malthusian pressure South Asia's rural population will peak and decline after 2028, due to rural fertility decline 2,500,000.00 2,250,000.00 2,000,000.00 1,750,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,000,000.00 750,000.00 500,000.00 250,000.00 0.00 Total
Rural Urban ks 8 a e l p 202 a r ru in an b r u % 8 0 >5 204 in
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup. Africa did not experience rapid population growth until after its independence in 1960s Sub-Saharan Africa's rural population will keep growing past 2050, despite very rapid urbanization 2,500,000.00 Total 2,250,000.00 Rural 2,000,000.00 Urban 1,750,000.00 1,500,000.00 Worlds fastest year-to-year 1,250,000.00
urban population growth, 1,000,000.00 but from a small base 750,000.00 500,000.00 250,000.00 0.00 Over 50% urban in 2040 Rural population keeps rising Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup. Rural population still rising past 2050!
The rise and then fall of rural populations is a key factor in agricultural transformation Millions 1,250,000 1,000,000 Rural populations of major world regions, 1950-2050 South Asia East Asia 750,000 500,000 250,000 Southeast Asia
- Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup. Africa is the new Asia Millions 1,250,000 1,000,000 Rural populations of major world regions, 1950-2050 South Asia East Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
750,000 Africas rural population will keep growing, replacing Asias farmers 500,000 250,000 Southeast Asia - Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup. How have these structural transformations
affected agriculture, nutrition & policy? Strategy test for shifts in the global average at each level of national income this generalizes the Preston curve, first applied to life expectancy (Preston 1975, Bloom & Canning 2007), Data national income: purchasing power per capita (not household income!) agriculture: rural pop. growth, ag. employment and earnings nutrition: child height, adult obesity, diet quality policy choices: trade policy and public investment Method
all data are nationally representative each test compares African countries to all others, and 1990s to 2010s Structural transformation involves shifting workers from agriculture to other sectors Ags share of the workforce has remained much higher in Africa than elsewhere and did not shift down from 1991 to 2010 Rural population growth leaves many people no choice but to keep farming Rural population has grown much faster in Africa than elsewhere and has not shifted down over time Worker productivity in agriculture
is typically lower than in other sectors The productivity gap is especially large in Africa and has shifted up only in richer countries Heights are a very useful measure of well-being Africas stunting rates have shifted down, but remain higher than others at each income level Obesity is increasingly important for adult health Obesity has shifted up only in the richest countries outside Africa Diet quality depends on
eating more healthy foods Low income populations eat more healthy foods in Africa than elsewhere Diet quality also means eating less unhealthy foods Low income populations also eat less unhealthy foods in Africa than elsewhere Trade policy has often shifted with income growth from lowering to raising food prices African governments have generally kept prices low, at farmers expense
In richer countries, extremes of support have been cut Fiscal spending on agriculture has generally risen more slowly than national income As ag. spending share declines, health spending has been flat or rising with income Each FTF target country has a unique story ETH ETH NPL NPL
Less stunting GTM GTM GTM UGA ETH 40 NPL UGA UGA 20 Less stunting and
higher income 0 Pct. of children under 5 with HAZ<-2 at each level of national income 60 UNICEF/WHO/WB survey data on child stunting since 2000 in poor countries Pct. of children under 5, 2000-05 [n=118] and 2006-11 [n=118] GHA GHA GHA GHA O = 200005 = 2006-11
250 500 1,000 2,000 4,000 Real GDP per capita at PPP prices (2005 USD), log scale (countries under US$6,000 only) Note: 2007-09=green circles, 2000-11=blue squares, with darker colors for FtF focus countries of which a few are labeled. Lines show each period's local means and confidence intervals estimated by -lpolyci-, weighted by population and with a bandwidth of 0.75. Source: World Bank, WHO and UNICEF joint data; GDP and population are from PWT 8.1. Comparing Africa to other regions reveals a lot: Preston curves reveal how the present is like the past, or not most change is movement along a stable development path
-- only a few variables differ and shift over time Some remarkable differences include: Rapid rural population in Africa will continue past 2050 despite rapid urbanization, due to population momentum Africa continues to have a larger share of its workers in agriculture, with lower productivity relative to nonfarm workers Africa has had higher rates of child stunting at each income level, but stunting rates have shifted down rapidly in Africa like elsewhere Africas unique demography will remain its greatest challenge Without faster agricultural productivity growth where the rural poor live, their increasing numbers will force even more of them into poverty even with rapid urbanization and health improvements and with big implications for food policy and nutrition Thank you! Main results are from: Agricultural transformation, nutrition transition and food policy in Africa:
Preston Curves reveal new stylized facts W.A. Masters, N.Z. Rosenblum and R.G. Alemu, in review at Journal of Development Studies Funding sources are: USAID, Feed the Future Policy Impact Study Consortium at Rutgers University http://ru-ftf.rutgers.edu USAID, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Nutrition www.nutritioninnovationlab.org BMGF, Global Nutrition and Policy Consortium at Tufts University http://www.globaldietarydatabase.org
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