The Changing Demographics of the DFW Metro Area

The Changing Demographics of the DFW Metro Area

The Changing Demographics of the DFW Metro Area Leadership North Texas September 27, 2019 @TexasDemography Texas is experiencing significant Population Growth of Select States, 2000-2018 2000 Population 2010 Population 2018 Population Numeric Change 2010-2018 Percent Change 2010-2018 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 327,167,434 18,409,329 6% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,701,845 3,555,731 14% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,557,045 2,302,522 6% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 21,299,325 2,494,745 13% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653

10,519,475 830,766 9% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,383,620 847,884 9% Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,535,591 811,051 12% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,171,646 779,358 12% Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,695,564 666,248 13% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2018 Population Estimates. 3 Texas added 379,128 people between July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2018. About 1,039 people per day added to our population. About 524 persons per day from natural increase (more births than deaths) International Migration; 27.72% Natural Increase; 50.43% Domestic Migration; 21.85% About 515 per day from net migration (288 international and 227 domestic migrants per day). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates.

4 Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2018 Dallam Sherman Ochiltree Lipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler Deaf Smith Randall Donley Collingsworth Armstrong Parmer Castro Swisher Briscoe Hall Childress Hardeman Floyd Motley Cottle Wilbarger Wichita Foard CochranHockley Crosby Dickens King Lubbock Knox Baylor Archer Bailey Lamb Clay LamarRed River MontagueCooke Grayson Fannin Bowie Delta Titus Wise Denton Collin Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Franklin Rockwall Rains Wood Upshur Marion Parker Tarrant Dallas Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Jones Stephens Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt Gregg Harrison Shackelford Yoakum Terry Gaines Hale Lynn Garza Kent Young Jack Haskell Stonewall Throckmorton Smith Hood Johnson Ellis Eastland Martin Howard Nolan Taylor Panola Henderson ErathSomervell Callahan Mitchell Rusk Navarro

Hill Glasscock Comanche Shelby Cherokee Bosque Loving Winkler Ector Midland Anderson Sterling Coke Runnels ColemanBrown Freestone Nacogdoches Hamilton McLennanLimestone Ward Culberson Mills San AugustineSabine Crane Coryell Tom Green Upton Reagan Angelina Leon Houston Reeves Irion Falls Concho Lampasas Trinity McCullochSan Saba RobertsonMadison Bell Schleicher Menard Burnet Polk Tyler Jasper Newton Milam Walker Pecos Jeff Davis Brazos Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Grimes San Jacinto Burleson Kimble Sutton Hardin Montgomery Lee Gillespie Blanco Travis Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Liberty Waller Presidio Hays Kerr Jefferson Edwards Austin Kendall Harris Fayette Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Brewster Bandera Colorado Guadalupe Fort Bend Galveston Gonzales Bexar Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton

Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Frio Atascosa Karnes Zavala Matagorda Victoria Maverick Goliad Andrews El Paso Hudspeth County respop72018 152 - 10,000 Dimmit 10,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 500,000 500,001 - 2,000,000 2,000,001 - 4,698,619 McMullen Bee Live Oak La Salle Refugio San Patricio Webb Aransas Jim Wells Nueces Duval Kleberg Brooks Zapata Jim Hogg Kenedy Starr Hidalgo Willacy Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates Calhoun Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2018 Dallam Sherman Ochiltree Lipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill Oldham 96 counties lost population over the 8 year period. Potter Carson Gray Wheeler Deaf Smith Randall Donley Collingsworth Armstrong Parmer Castro Swisher Briscoe Hall Childress Bailey Lamb Hale Hardeman

Wilbarger Wichita Foard Floyd Motley Cottle CochranHockley Crosby Dickens King Lubbock Hudspeth County popchg4201072018 -2,376 - 0 Clay LamarRed River MontagueCooke Grayson Fannin Bowie Delta Titus Wise Denton Collin Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Franklin Rockwall Rains Wood Upshur Marion Parker Tarrant Dallas Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Jones Stephens Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt Gregg Harrison Shackelford Smith Hood Johnson Ellis Eastland Andrews Martin Howard Nolan Taylor Panola Henderson ErathSomervell Callahan Mitchell Rusk Navarro Hill Glasscock Comanche Shelby Cherokee Bosque Loving Winkler Ector Midland Coke Anderson Sterling Runnels ColemanBrown Freestone Nacogdoches Hamilton McLennanLimestone Ward Culberson Mills San AugustineSabine Crane Coryell Tom Green Upton Reagan Angelina Leon Houston Reeves Irion Falls Concho Lampasas Trinity McCulloch San Saba Robertson Madison Bell

Schleicher Menard Burnet Polk Tyler Jasper Newton Milam Walker Pecos Jeff Davis Brazos Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Grimes San Jacinto Burleson Kimble Sutton Hardin Montgomery Lee Gillespie Blanco Travis Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Liberty Waller Presidio Hays Kerr Jefferson Edwards Austin Harris Kendall Fayette Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Brewster Bandera Colorado Guadalupe Fort Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Bexar Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Frio Atascosa Karnes Zavala Matagorda Victoria Maverick Goliad Yoakum Terry El Paso Knox Baylor Archer Lynn Garza Kent Young Jack Haskell Stonewall Throckmorton Dimmit 1 - 5,000 5,001 - 25,000 25,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 605,431 McMullen Bee Live Oak

La Salle Refugio Aransas San Patricio Webb Jim Wells Nueces Duval Kleberg Brooks Zapata Jim Hogg Kenedy Starr Hidalgo Willacy Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates Calhoun 6 Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2018 Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler Deaf Smith Randall Donley Collingsworth Armstrong Parmer Castro Swisher Briscoe Hall Childress Bailey Lamb Hale Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Floyd Motley Cottle CochranHockley Crosby Dickens King Lubbock Knox Baylor Archer Clay LamarRed River MontagueCooke Grayson Fannin Bowie Delta Titus Wise Denton Collin Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Hunt Hopkins Morris Cass Franklin Rockwall Rains Marion Wood Upshur Parker Tarrant Dallas

Gaines DawsonBorden Scurry Fisher Jones Stephens Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison Shackelford Smith HoodJohnson Ellis Eastland Andrews Martin Howard Nolan Taylor Panola Henderson ErathSomervell Callahan Mitchell Rusk Navarro Hill Glasscock Comanche Shelby Cherokee Bosque Loving Winkler Ector Midland Anderson Sterling Coke RunnelsColemanBrown Freestone Nacogdoches Hamilton Kent Young Jack Haskell Stonewall Throckmorton El Paso Hudspeth Ward Culberson Reeves Terrell Presidio Brewster McLennanLimestone Mills San AugustineSabine Coryell Tom Green Angelina Leon Houston Falls Concho Lampasas Trinity McCulloch San Saba RobertsonMadison Bell Schleicher Menard Burnet Polk Tyler Jasper Newton Milam Walker Brazos Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Grimes San Jacinto Burleson Kimble Sutton Hardin Montgomery Lee Gillespie Blanco Travis

Washington Orange Bastrop Liberty Waller Hays Kerr Jefferson Edwards Austin Kendall Harris Fayette Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Bandera Colorado Guadalupe Fort Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Bexar Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Frio Atascosa Karnes Zavala Matagorda Victoria Maverick Goliad Upton Reagan Pecos Jeff Davis PopChange_2010-2018 Crane Irion PEP_2018_PEPANNRES_with_ann$.percchg10_18 -16% - -5% -4% - 0% 1% - 14% 15% - 27% 28% - 85% Dimmit McMullen Bee Live Oak La Salle Webb Refugio San Patricio Jim Wells Nueces Duval Calhoun Aransas Kleberg Brooks Zapata Jim Hogg Kenedy Starr

Hidalgo Willacy Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates 7 Estimated Percent of Total Net-Migrant Flows to and From Texas and Other States, 2017 39% 25% 19%19% 11% 10% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -1%-1%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2% -3%-3% -4% -5%-6% -7% -9% -21% i a ta na ipp ni a r i so s s o e i s f i n u li in iss Lo Ca M M wa Io a in aii rida w am ns a o b o l H a F isc Al

W Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Migration Flows, 2017 Oh e o n ia ia ta ta ut as ey ka gon na and aho in in ad rs ain higa ako ko tic as ta l ns g r g e d s c r a a r n I r r I o Je M i i b l D ic D o V O e ne Ark w h tV M M Ne Co od on rth Ne out es h C o R W S N io

Top 10 Metros in Numeric Growth, 2010 to 2018 April 1, 2010 July 1, 2017 July 1, 2018 Numeric Growth 1 Dallas-Fort WorthArlington, TX 6,426,222 7,407,944 7,539,711 1,113,489 2 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 5,920,487 6,905,695 6,997,384 1,076,897 3 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4,193,127 4,761,694 4,857,962 664,835 4 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5,286,750 5,874,249 5,949,951 663,201 5 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 5,566,294 6,149,687 6,198,782 632,488 6 Washington-ArlingtonAlexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,636,363

6,200,001 6,249,950 613,587 7 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3,439,805 3,884,469 3,939,363 499,558 8 Los Angeles-Long BeachAnaheim, CA 12,828,946 13,298,709 13,291,486 462,540 9 Austin-Round Rock, TX 1,716,321 2,115,230 2,168,316 451,995 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2,134,402 2,512,917 2,572,962 438,560 Rank 10 Name Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates 9 Largest U.S. Cities, 2018 Rank Place Census 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 1 New York , NY 8,175,133 8,272,963 8,348,032 8,398,739 8,437,387 8,468,181 8,475,976 8,438,271 8,398,748 2 Los Angeles , CA 3,792,621 3,821,136 3,852,532 3,883,916 3,913,260 3,943,215 3,969,262 3,982,002 3,990,456 3 Chicago , IL 2,695,598 2,708,209 2,719,735 2,726,772 2,728,524 2,726,215 2,718,946 2,713,067 2,705,994 4 Houston , TX 2,099,451 2,124,143 2,160,086 2,198,280 2,240,982 2,286,630 2,309,752 2,317,445 2,325,502 5 Phoenix , AZ 1,445,632 1,470,052 1,499,839 1,527,336 1,556,552 1,584,927 1,613,581 1,634,984 1,660,272 6 Philadelphia , PN 1,526,006 1,540,322 1,551,797 1,558,371 1,565,604 1,571,258 1,576,390 1,580,221 1,584,138 7 San Antonio , TX 1,327,407 1,357,536 1,383,608 1,408,787 1,435,839 1,464,531 1,488,512 1,511,409 1,532,233 8 San Diego , CA 1,307,402 1,319,697 1,337,149 1,355,951 1,376,725 1,388,674 1,403,865 1,414,427 1,425,976 9 Dallas , TX 1,197,816 1,218,320 1,242,344 1,259,239 1,279,679 1,301,794 1,324,477 1,343,087 1,345,047 10 San Jose , CA 945,942 969,948 983,322 1,001,253 1,014,418 1,026,099 1,030,359 1,032,136 1,030,119 11 Austin , TX 790,390 828,694 854,841 875,463 901,734 921,545

939,768 951,750 964,254 12 Jacksonville , FL 821,784 829,554 836,997 842,762 852,560 865,835 880,495 891,736 903,889 13 Fort Worth , TX 741,206 764,034 781,059 796,175 815,135 835,950 856,902 875,456 895,008 14 Columbus , OH 787,033 800,522 812,711 827,824 841,740 855,012 866,918 881,763 892,533 15 San Francisco , CA 805,235 815,677 829,027 839,841 851,116 863,836 872,795

879,166 883,305 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Vintage Population Estimates 15 Fastest-Growing Large Cities and Towns between 2017 and 2018 (Populations of 50,000 or more in 2017) Rank City State Percent increase 1 Buckeye AZ 8.5 2018 total population 74,370 2 New Braunfels TX 7.2 84,612 3 Apex NC 6.8 53,852 4 Frisco TX 6.1 188,170 5 Meridian ID 6.1 106,804 6 McKinney TX 5.4 191,645 7 Georgetown

TX 5.2 74,180 8 Rowlett TX 5.1 66,285 9 St. Cloud FL 5 54,115 10 Ankeny IA 4.6 65,284 11 Dublin CA 4.5 63,445 12 South Jordan UT 4.4 74,149 13 Midland TX 4.4 142,344 14 Castle Rock CO 4.3 64,827 15 Round Rock TX

4.3 128,739 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Vintage Population Estimates 11 Domestic and Internal Migration Flows to and from the DFW Metro Highest Sending States: California Oklahoma Florida Louisiana Illinois San Antonio MSA Net Internal Migration Flows High Receiving Counties Moderate Receiving Counties Low Receiving Counties No Migration Flow Low Sending Counties Moderate Sending Counties High Sending Counties Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016. ACS County to County Migration Flows, 2010-2014 Highest Receivin States: Oklahoma California Florida Colorado Louisiana County to County Migration Flows, Dallas and Tarrant Counties, 2013-2017 Dallas County Tarrant County In-Flows Net Migration Dallas County 19,902 5,266 -3,606 Denton County 5,447 -1,577 -9,298 Asia 5,420 8,654 Johnson County 3,873 Central America 6,882 Central America 3,838

Harris County 3,804 -456 Harris County 3,695 1,446 Kauffman County 2,648 -1,847 Parker County 2,797 -607 Los Angeles, CA 2,602 1,248 Africa 2,375 Ellis County 2,438 -185 Collin County 2,200 -432 Bexar County 2,291 568 Bexar County 1,748 171 Rockwall County 2,278 -751 Travis County 1,592 -322 In-Flows Net Migration Tarrant County 14,636 -5,266 Collin County

14,267 Denton County 10,011 Asia Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 ACS County to County Migration Flows 15 13 Texas continues to diversify. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2010 and 2018 Percent Contribution by Race/Ethnicity to Total Population Change, 2010 to 2018 Hispanic; 37.62% NH White; 45.45% NH Asian; 3.82% NH Black; 11.53% 2,500,000 60.0% 53.6% 50.0% 2,000,000 40.0% NH Other; 1.57% 1,500,000 2010 30.0% 1,000,000 13.6% 20.0% 15.2% 13.3% 500,000 Hispanic 40% White, NH 42% 4.2% 149,192 0 484,211 541,760 1,907,928 473,193 NH White NH Black

Hispanic NH Asian NH Other 10.0% 0.0% Asian, NH Black, NH 5% 12% Other, NH 2% 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2018 Population Estimates 11 Race/Ethnicity Composition, DFW Metro Area and Its Counties, 2018 DFW Metro Area Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other NH Asian; 7.05% NH Other; 2.66% NH Black; 15.61% Collin County 15.4% 55.9% 10.1% 15.7% 2.8% Dallas County 40.5% 28.6% 22.6% 6.6% 1.7% Denton County 19.5% 58.3% 10.1% 9.4% 2.7% Ellis County 26.6% 59.9% 10.8% 0.7% 1.9% Hunt County 17.0%

71.0% 7.9% 1.5% 2.6% Johnson County 22.0% 71.2% 3.4% 0.9% 2.6% Kaufman County 22.4% 62.2% 12.0% 1.2% 2.2% Parker County 12.8% 82.9% 1.4% 0.6% 2.3% Rockwall County 18.0% 70.3% 6.5% 3.0% 2.3% Tarrant County 29.2% 45.9% 16.7% 5.7% 2.5% Wise County 19.7% 76.3% 1.3% 0.6% 2.1% Hispanic; 29.04%

NH White; 45.64% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates 16 Percent of Total Population Change Contributed by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 to 2018 Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Collin 17.8% 30.3% 16.3% 31.4% 4.2% Dallas 60.2% -11.7% 27.9% 19.8% 3.8% Delta 139.0% -66.1% -32.2% 4.2% 55.1% Denton 23.9% 37.2% 16.5% 18.6% 3.8% Ellis 42.4% 31.1% 20.8% 1.6% 4.1% Hunt

44.8% 38.9% 5.9% 5.6% 4.8% Johnson 51.0% 30.3% 9.8% 2.5% 6.5% Kaufman 44.5% 29.9% 19.1% 2.8% 3.8% Parker 24.6% 69.8% 0.6% 1.0% 4.0% Rockwall 25.4% 56.2% 9.3% 5.1% 4.0% Tarrant 45.8% 6.5% 30.6% 12.2% 4.8% Wise 36.5% 54.1% 3.4% 1.7% 4.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates 17 Texas economic indicators U.S. and Texas Job Growth, 2015-2019 20 Housing Affordability in Select Texas Metros, 2007-2017 100 90 80 70 60 Austin Dallas Fort Worth Houston San Antonio 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Notes: Data are through fourth quarter 2017. The Housing Opportunity Index represents the share of homes sold in a given area that Would have been affordable to a family earning the local median income. Source: National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo. 21 Economic Indicators, Texas and U.S., 2018 Unemployment rate* U.S. = 3.7% Texas = 3.4% DFW = 3.5% Median Household Income U.S. = $61,937 Texas = $60,629 DFW= $69,445 Median Family Income U.S. = $76,401 Texas = $71,868 DFW = $81,123 Poverty rate U.S. = 13.1% Texas = 14.9% DFW = 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; *Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2019 Your Texas Economy

22 Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2018 High School Degree and above 100% 90% Educational attainment in the DFW metro is generally higher than that of the state, with the exception of education for Hispanics. However, educational disparities by race/ethnicity are still evident. 94% 90% 88% 84% 80% Bachelors Degree and above 67% 70% 60% 60% 50% 39% 40% 30% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 0% Total Hispanic NH White Austin Black Asian DFW Total Houston Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Hispanic NH White San Antonio Texas Black Asian 23 Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2018 $120,000 Median household incomes in the DFW metro tend to be higher than the state for all race/ethnic groups, but especially for NH Whites.

$100,000 $87,120 $80,000 $60,000 $74,509 $60,629 $48,175 $45,545 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Total Austin NH White Dallas Hispanic Houston Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Black San Antonio Asian Texas 24 Population Projections Projected Population, 2010-2050, Texas 55000000 50000000 45000000 54,369,297.0 Zero Migration 0.5 Migration 1.0 Migration 2010-2015 Migration 40000000 47,342,417.0 40,502,749.0 35000000 30000000 31,246,355.0 25000000 20000000 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections 26 Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 25,000,000 20,191,750.0 20,000,000 15,000,000 13,523,839.0 10,000,000 6,030,795.0 5,782,908.0

5,000,000 1,813,125.0 0 2010 2015 NH White 2020 NH Black Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections 2025 2030 Hispanic 2035 2040 NH Asian 2045 2050 NH Other 27 Population Projections, DFW Metro Largest Counties, 2010-2030 2015; 7,688,73 7,007,21 9 2 6,366,54 3,500,000.0 2 2025; 9,263,55 8,437,62 8 1 3,000,000.0 2010 3,106,298.0 2015 2,500,000.0 2020 2025 2025; 2,920,069.0 2030 2,734,111.0 2015; 2,551,029.0 2,507,170.0 2,368,139.0 2025; 2,322,418.0 2,143,755.0 2,000,000.0 2015; 1,973,526.0 1,809,034.0 1,391,461.0

1,500,000.0 2025; 1,199,276.0 1,000,000.0 782,341.0 662,614.0 500,000.0 0.0 2010 2015; 904,421.0 2015; 771,688.0 2015 Collin Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections 1,039,369.0 1,234,110.0 2025; 1,048,765.0 897,953.0 2020 Dallas Denton 2025 Tarrant 2030 28 Population Projections, DFW Metro Smaller Counties, 2010-2030 225,000 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 5,231 0 2010 5,299 5,367 5,371 5,361 2015 2020 2025 2030 Delta Kaufman Ellis Parker Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections Hunt Rockwall Johnson Wise

29 Projected Contribution to Total Population Change by Race/Ethnicity, DFW Metro, 2010 to 2030 1,200,000 40.0% 36.3% 35.0% 1,000,000 30.0% 800,000 25.0% 22.2% 20.3% 600,000 20.0% 16.2% 15.0% 400,000 10.0% 200,000 0 5.0% 469,852 643,594 1,051,087 588,708 143,775 NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other Numeric Change Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections 5.0% 0.0% Percent of Total Population Change 30 Lila Valencia, Ph.D. (512) 936-3542 [email protected] demographics.texas.gov @TexasDemography 31

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