Intra-Hour Wind Forecast Accuracy Updates (July 2019) WMWG

Intra-Hour Wind Forecast Accuracy Updates (July 2019) WMWG

Intra-Hour Wind Forecast Accuracy Updates (July 2019) WMWG Operations Analysis Aug. 20, 2019 Current GTBD Parameters Historical K factor tuning events: 4/24/19 - Max Integral ACE Feedback changed from 150 to 160 and PWRR Threshold changed from 20 to 25 2 PUBLIC Projected Wind Ramp Rate (PWRR) Error

SCED PWRR (7/1 7/31) Persistence Ramp* (7/1 7/31) Monthly MAE (MW) 56 75 Monthly MAE when 5-Min. Wind Ramp > 100 MW

100 157 Performance Metric PUBLIC * Persistence Ramp assumes using a 0 MW wind ramp in PWRR 3

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