Allianz Global Investors New Regimes for a Changed
Allianz Global Investors New Regimes for a Changed World 6.0 Steven R. Malin Director-Senior Investment Strategist October November 2017 Global Economics & Strategy | 291085 This material contains the current opinions of the presenter, which are subject to change without notice. This material does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. For the first time in a decade, the worlds major economies are growing in sync, a result of low-interest rate stimulus from central banks and the gradual fading of crises that over the years ricocheted from the U.S. to Greece, Brazil and beyond. Its not a particularly fast or thrilling beat, more plodding and methodical, but its getting the job done Josh Zumbrum The Wall Street Journal August 24, 2017
2 World economy remains in recovery mode, despite some loss of momentum recently Macro data flow has started to lose momentum... ...but is still solid in both the industrialized and emerging world The world economy remains on track of moderately above-potential growth in H2/2017. However, the loss of positive momentum in our Global Macro Breadth Index over recent months points to a somewhat less vibrant data flow compared to earlier this year. As of October 9, 2017 Note: The world macro breadth indices track the direction of 226 global, regional and country macro data (173 growth and 53 inflation indicators) on a monthly basis. The monthly change of the index is scaled from -1 to 1, with a value of 1 (-1) implying an increase (decrease) of all underlying data. Source: Allianz Global Investors Global Economics & Strategy, Bloomberg, Datastream. 3 Ultra-easy monetary policy: Global liquidity will peak in 2018 G5 monetary base as % of world GDP With the ECB reducing its monthly bond purchases from April onwards and the Fed starting the balance sheet reduction in October 2017, we expect a peak in global macro liquidity in 2018. This would clearly be a headwind for capital markets. Source: Allianz GI, Bloomberg, Datastream, calculations based on current USD; estimates for 2017 onwards. Projections are based on assumptions with respect to future events. The actual future events may differ from the assumptions.. 4 Can President Trump achieve 3-4% sustainable growth?
Long-run growth = labor force growth + productivity growth As the population ages, long-run growth will naturally slow US Long-Run Growth Potential (Percent) Potential GDP Growth vs. Actual Growth Actual Growth is Moving 5-Year Average Lagged 2 Years Correlation: 0.86 6 ?? 5 4 3 2 1.88 1 Boomers exiting workforce Source: AllianzGI; Congressional Budget Office as of 10/20/17 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Potential Growth Actual Growth
Source: AllianzGI; Congressional Budget Office; FactSet as of 10/20/17 US potential growth is about 1.8% [1.3% from productivity + 0.5% from labor force]. Getting to 3-4% means: 1. Significantly expanding the labor force 2. Massively increasing productivity Source: AllianzGI Global Economics & Strategy as of 10/20/17 5 5 Eurozone continues to stand out with a healthy, regionally broad-based growth momentum While Americans tend to hit their peak earning and spending years between ages 45-64 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; as of 10/19/17 the number of folks aged 45-64 has been shrinking since 2011 and it wont expand again until 2025 Source: FactSet; Census Bureau; as of 10/19/17 Poor demographics partially explain U.S. long-run growth potential of only about 1.9%. The historic economic boost provided by the Baby Boomers is unwinding as they retire out of the workforce. Productivity, in turn, also suffers from demographic headwinds. Source: AllianzGI Economics & Strategy, as of 4/20/17 6 Economists do not, at present, have a theory of inflation dynamics that works
sufficiently well to be of use for the business of real-time monetary-policy making. Daniel Tarullo Former Governor, US Federal Reserve System 7 Wage inflation combined with credit growth serves as a good proxy measure for core PCE services inflation Maybe, wage gains ARE having a positive impact on the inflation rate, but through the services portion of the GNP, not the goods portion. Source: Berenberg Capital; Allianz Global Investors as of July 2017. 8 I dont think its possible for the Fed to end easy-money policies in a trouble-free manner. Recent episodes in which Fed officials hinted at a shift toward higher interest rates have unleashed significant volatility in markets, so there is no reason to suspect that the actual process of boosting rates would be any different. Alan Greenspan 9
Monetary policy influences output employment and prices through a complex transmission mechanism The six channels of monetary transmission Policy communication and commitment Monetary policy formulation Temporary and permanent open-market operations Expectations of Initiation Expectations of Initiation and exchange rates Reserves Expected path of target policy rate Expected path of central-bank asset holdings Portfolio balance effect Expected path of nominal short-term interest rates Loan Supply Asset price
A fully-functional monetary policy transmission mechanism works through six separate channels. However, since the advent of unconventional monetary policies, the most active channels have been the portfolio balance and private non-financial balance sheets channels. Source: Federal Bank of New York, Allianz Global Investors.. 10 Massive reserves expansion led to a surge in the monetary base, though money supply growth has been unspectacular After a prolonged surge, the monetary base and bank reserves stopped growing in 2014 4,500,000.0 Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions, Millions of Dollars, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Monetary Base; Total, Millions of Dollars, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted M2 Money Stock, Billions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted 4,000,000.0 16,000 14,000 3,500,000.0 Milions 12,000 3,000,000.0 10,000 Billions
2,500,000.0 8,000 2,000,000.0 6,000 1,500,000.0 4,000 1,000,000.0 2,000 500,000.0 0.0 0 Money supply growth belies the expansion and slowdown in reserve and monetary base growth. Likely, the missing element was a widely-expected leap in private credit supply and demand. Central banks can set conditions conducive to credit growth, but cannot make it happen directly. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED; Allianz Global Investors as of July 2017. 11 Credit gaps have declined in many countries compared to last year. However, not in countries with the strongest debt dynamics Credit gap: deviation of private non-financial debt/GDP from trend in %
Private debt/GDP is significantly below trend and credit is growing again in UK and in the US. Credit has also bottomed out in the Eurozone. Leverage is high and has risen above critical levels in several EM and DM countries pointing at lower trend growth in coming years. As of 2016/Q4 Source: Bank for International Settlements, AllianzGI. Trend calculated based on data starting in 1980 or 1990, depending on data availability. Legend: countries in dark blue: DM with full financial crisis in 2007/08; grey:DM with moderate or no financial crisis in 2007/08; light blue: EM. Arrows indicated directional change compared to Q4 2015. 12 Chinas Power Transition 19th CPC Congress Convened October 18, 2017 Two key issues going forward: 1. Debt 2. SOE reform President Xi comes away from the Communist Party Congress with more power and prestige and a greater emphasis on environmental issues, mixing of free and centrally-planned markets, and greater determination to carry out the existing 5-year plan and plans to develop the China economy further through 2050. Source: The Wall Street Journal; Allianz Global Investors. 13 While the BoJ will continue expanding its balance sheet, the PBoC likely will keep liquidity conditions stable Bank of Japan asset purchases 600 Launch of QQE Peoples Bank of China asset holdings YCC implemented
15 10 10 5 5 20 100 0 35 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 BoJ Holding of JGBs (12m change) JGBs Outstanding (12m change) BoJ Assets (tr JPY) 2012 2014
2016 -20 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, AllianzGI Economics & Strategy 7/14/2017 0 2004 2006 2008 Foreign Assets Claims on other Depository Claims on Non-Fin. Corp. Total Assets 2010 2012 2014 2016 Claims on Government Claims on other Fin. Corp. Other Assets 0 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, AllianzGI Economics & Strategy 7/14/2017 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Allianz Global Investors. As of July 14, 2017. 14
All successful revolutions are the kicking in of a rotten door. John Kenneth Galbraith 15 Trump Administration tax proposal of October 2017 would affect different sectors differently 16 Fiscal constraints may challenge the likelihood for a big infrastructure package An effectively deployed infrastructure package could benefit the US economy Federal deficits are forecast to accelerate as spending on aging Baby Boomers grows US Federal Deficit Highest Multiplier Lowest Multiplier
Purchases of goods & services by federal government 2.5 1.0 Transfer payments to state & local governments for infrastructure 2.5 1.0 Transfer payments to state & local governments for other purposes 1.9 0.7 Transfer payments to individuals 2.2 0.8 Two-year tax cuts for lower- & middle-income people 1.7
0.5 One-year tax cut for higher-income people 1.0 0.6 -8 Extension of first-time homebuyer tax credit 0.5 0.1 -10 Tax loss carryback 0.4 0.0 Type of Activity Forecast period: 2017 to 2027 Congressional Budget Office
Full history in FactSet (from 1962) Max: 2.33 (2000) Min: -9.80 (2009) Avg: -2.87 2 0 -2 -2.87 -4 -5.25 -6 1965 1975 1985 1995 Deficit 2005 2015 Average 2025 Infrastructure spending can have a large multiplier effect on growth (up to 2.5x). But fiscal constraints are a challengenot just for the federal governmentbut for many state and local governments. That may be why President Trump is hoping the private sector will add financial backing to his $1 trillion infrastructure plan. Todays backdrop for greater private investment isnt bad: The percent of small companies planning to invest is at 32%, the
highest in more than 10 years. But its not clear whether that might help President Trump. When companies do spend money (outside of dividends and buybacks), its usually on intellectual property, which hit an all-time high in 2Q17. The broadest measure of private corporate investmentnonresidentialwas just 12.65% of GDP in 2Q17, well below the peaks in 81, 00, 08 and even 15. Most of the decline in private investment was within the structures and equipment categories. Source: AllianzGI Global Economics & Strategy; FactSet; as of 9/26/17 17 Everything that can be invented already has been. Larry Ellison (1977) Former CEO and Co-Founder of Oracle 18 Technological change may yet be the biggest driver of productivity The 6 Ds of technological change may yet become the biggest drivers of productivity Technologies and their interfaces will be fused across physical, digital and biological domains in: Smart and connected machines and systems Deception Democratization
Quasi-artificial intelligence Quantum computing 3-D printing System robots Big data Digitalization Dematerialization Medical imaging Gene splicing and genomics Nanotechnologies Virtual reality Demonetization Source: Allianz Global Investors Disruption Machine learning 19 We went to the shopping mall and laughed at all the shoppers US online sales are growing nearly 4x faster than total retail sales Retail Sales vs. Online Retail Sales Retail Bankruptcies 9.69
-10 2% 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 There were twice as many US retail bankruptcies during the first 9 months of 2017 as all of 2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* Retail Sales (Total) (Left) Retail Sales (Online) (Left) Online as % of Total (Right) 0 5 10 15
20 Number of Bankruptcies *Through October 9, 2017 The idea of selling stuff for cheap on the Internet is hardly new or purely American. Nearly 20% of Chinese retail sales are online, the most of any big economy. The fact that Japan and the EU are lagging, simply suggests untapped potential. From an economic standpoint, e-commerce marketplace sellers frequently compete by the penny, with the lowest offer rakingin disproportionate sales. This puts a damper on retail goods inflation, which effects central bank policy. The employment impact is more complicated. On net, e-commerce hasnt resulted in retail sector job losses. But the impact differs significantly based on geography, with low-paying mall jobs across the US replaced by better-paying warehouse distribution centers in relatively few locations. Source: AllianzGI Global Economics & Strategy; Census Bureau; JP Morgan; New York Federal Reserve; FactSet; as of 10/11/17 20 Dear iPhone, A decade ago, Steve Jobs said that you were three revolutionary products in one. He was wrong. Youve already displaced so many more: alarm clocks, guitar tuners, product calculators, atlases, Filofaxes, dictaphones and weathermen But youre no product at all: Youre a life partner. Youre the first thing I look at in the morning and the last thing I look at before I sleep. Theres no turning you off. Geoffrey A. Fowler Wall Street Journal
June 22, 2017 21 Innovations in photographic technology occur so fast that they often are deceptive Number of photos taken by decade Digital cameras enabled explosive growth in photos taken 400 Analog Photos All Photos Billions 100 5757 50 2525 0 11 1.51.5 33 5.85.8 1010
1930 1940 1950 1960 Source: www.digital-photography-school.com/history-photography; Allianz Global Investors. As of December 31, 2010. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 22 Risk-adjusted return maximization is the top investment goal More North American investors say risk adjustment return maximization is their primary investment goal this year compared to last year (41% vs 32% in 2016). Greatest perceived risks: Equity market correction and event risk Investment goals for 2017 Equity market risk & event risk biggest threats to portfolio performance in North America
Facing risks in 2017, North American investors make risk adjusted return their top investment goal as they find a balance between upside potential and downside protection. Source: Allianz Global Investors as of June 2017. 23 Investors must choose carefully which signals to monitor 24 Market complacency keeps risk-assets in an upward trajectory 25 Are investors over-paying for risk? S&P 500 Forward P/E vs. VIX Index Equity valuations became very stretched Source: FactSet; Allianz Global Investors. As of August 11, 2017. 26 Last five years equity returns under-perform typical end-ofcycle rally S&P 500 Rolling annualized total returns (December 1930 July 2017) 50% 37.2% 30.6% 21.4%
25% 18.0% Bull market peaks (median) (21.4%) 0% 14.8% 13.9% As of July 31, 2017 (14.8%) 10.8% 9.7% 6.0% Median (10.8%) -5.0% -17.0% -25% -50%
Quintile 1 (Highest) Quintile 2 Source: Factset; Richard Bernstein Advisors; Allianz Global Investors. As of July 31, 2017. Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 (Lowest) 27 Fundamentals of Europe equity investing have been strong 28 Conviction Fixed Income: Key themes and risks Implemented in the portfolio 29 Money market Central Banks stance can be tighter compared to market
expectations. Short Eurodollar contract EDM8 and EDM9. Currencies Still US dollar preference but conviction has diminished. Maintain tactical long position in USD Duration Short via cash and options both in US and Eurozone. UW US and Eurozone Duration US/EU spread: favor tightening. Eurozone: short core EZ countries, long Spain Italy and Portugal, neutral France UK: tactically long.
Long credit Credit Spreads are tights but fundamentals and technical remain supportive. OW EU credit via sub-financials and BB names. OW cyclicals that will benefit from improving Eurozone recovery momentum. Volatility Volatility is low considering risk of a more hawkish stance from the Fed and or an earlier ECB exit strategy. Long as both Bund and Treasury volatility is close to recent trading range lows. Inflation Inflation recovery is fostered by improving growth and closing output and labor gap in US and Eurozone. Still relying in the
infrastructure/fiscal expansion in US. Tighter labor market in US will favor a rise in core inflation. UK: June RPI went out lower than expected. Inflation could have already peaked. Break-Even: long US Break-Even in 5 and 10 years maturities. Long EU BreakEven between 3 and 10 years maturities. Country selection: follow Eurozone country allocation strategy. Indexation: Neutral UK: Short UK inflation Eurozone country allocation Political risk have abated. Strong macro data support spread tightening. Probabilities have risen for Portugal to be back to IG status soon. UW: Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Finland. Neutral: Belgium, Ireland, France. OW: Italy, Spain, Portugal.
Covered Bonds Technical factors are still supportive due to TLTRO and CBPP3 programs, but valuations are expensive. Neutral. Looking to sell. Recommendation by countries: OW France, UW Sweden, UK. Neutral on other countries. SSA: Neutral on Agencies and Supranational. Looking to sell as PSPP effect will disappear in the future. 29 Regular crises perpetuate the past by reinvigorating cycles which started long ago. In contrast CRISES are the pasts death knell. They
function like laboratories in which the future is incubated.Once they strike, the past ceases to be a reliable predictor of the future and a brave new world is born. Yanis Varoufakis 30 The four most dangerous words in investing are this time is different Sir John Templeton 31 Appendix 33 Monetary policy remains historically accommodative US real effective federal funds rate Cumulative asset purchases by major central banks
Chart on left source: US Federal Reserve; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Allianz Global Investors. As of June 30, 2017. Chart on right source: DataStream; Allianz Global Investors. As of July 31, 2017. 34 US: Normalizing monetary policy requires persistent reductions in asset holdings Scaling down the portfolio will reshape securities markets Proposed caps on securities rolling off should mitigate market impacts 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0
-2.0 -2.5 -2.5 -3.0 -3.0 -3.5 -3.5 -4.0 -4.0 Trillions ($) 4.5 -4.5 Amount MaturingBillions ($) SOMA maturity distribution by year is front-loaded Trillions ($) Holdings by major asset class
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -4.5 1 9 7 / 3 / 2 2 1 1 / 9 / 3 2 2 2 / 1 / 1/ 8/ 3/ 10 4/ 11 6/ 1 / 8/ 3/ 10 5/ 12 7/ 1/ 8/ 3/ 10 5/ 12 Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: Bloomberg; Allianz Global Investors. As of August 20, 2017. 35 Mysteriously muted US and global inflation US inflation measured by the CPI Chart on left source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Allianz Global Investors. As of July 31, 2017.
Chart on right source: DataStream; Allianz Global Investors. As of July 31, 2017. Approximate global core inflation rates 36 Why have wages stagnated while the US labor market remains tight? Job openings per unemployed persons vs personal income The strong positive correlation between job availability and wage growth has broken down Last income: May-17. Last jobs/unemployed: Apr-17 Correlation: 0.54 1 9 0.86 0.8 6 2.95 3 0.6 0 0.4 -3 0.2 0
-6 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 -9 Job openings per unemployed person (Left) Personal income (wages & salaries) (Right) Source: AllianzGI Global Economics & Strategy; FactSet; US Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of July 7, 2017. 37 Low mortgage rates accommodate a gradual housing recovery Housing Starts & Homebuilder Confidence 30-year fixed mortgage rate (starts lagged 10 months) Housing Correlation: 0.84 starts and Last: Jul-16 Max Starts: 2273.00 (May-05). Max Confidence: 78.00 (Dec-98) homebuilder Min Starts: 478.00confidence (Aug-08). Min Confidence: 8.00 (Jan-09) Avg Starts: 1345.79. Avg Confidence: 48.92 2,500 80
0 (OPTIMAL LAG 10M, , ABS) Housing Starts (Left) Homebuilder Confidence (Right) Chart on left source: FactSet; Allianz Global Investors. As of August 4, 2017. Chart on right source: FactSet; Allianz Global Investors. As of July 31, 2016. 38 We have every reason to say, and I note this with great satisfaction, that a truly friendly relationship has evolved with China, and in many key areas of these relations, without any exaggeration, have a strategic character. As we say, [this is] the strategic character of [a] privileged partnership. Vladimir Putin 39 De-globalization exacerbates the supply-side constraints due to weak productivity growth and unfavorable demographics Average annualized 7-year real GDP growth rates 5
5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 1990 USA 1992 1994 Japan
1996 1998 Euro area UK 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 -1 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, AllianzGI Economics & Strategy 7/14/2017 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Allianz Global Investors. As of July 14, 2017.
40 Rising inequality since the early 1980s within countries helps explain the rise in support for populist parties Gini coefficient (in %): US, UK, Germany* 50 Share of European population expressing confidence 60% 50% 47% 40 40% 30% 36% 33% 31.84% 27.69% 27.70% 30 20% 20 10% 20 26 32 38 44 50 56 62 68 74 80 86 92 98 04 10 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20
* GINI coefficient is a measurement of the degree to which actual income distribution deviates from perfect equality. Source: International Monetary Fund; Allianz Global Investors. As of June 30, 2017. 41 U.S. equity sector rotation continues Source: FactSet; Allianz Global Investors. As of September 28, 2017. 42 Eurozone continues to stand out with a healthy, regionally broad-based growth momentum PMI continues to signal solid economic growth... ...on a regionally broad-based footing Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Allianz Global Investors As of August 22, 2017 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Allianz Global Investors As of August 22, c2017 The Eurozone economy entered the third quarter on a solid and broad-based footing, by both sector and nation. Although the Composite PMI fell to a six-month low of 55.7 in July, pointing to fading momentum, the still elevated PMI readings (among the highest in six years) signal a solid expansion. Past performance and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results. 43 Overview: Can Europe finally outperform the US ?
Factors in favor of Eurozone or US equity outperformance going forward Improving EU earnings outlook vs mature US earnings cycle Major EU political issues passing vs. Present in the USA More ECB support vs US Fed tightening Cyclical EU economic momentum Deregulation Fiscal policy support Cheap EU Valuation Pro Europe Pro US A majority of factors favors an overweight of Eurozone vs US equities at this juncture The decisive factor will be EU earnings outperformance Source: Allianz Global Investors as of September 2017. 44 European company earnings picking up Europe is in a much earlier stage of the economic cycle as compared to the US. Earnings of European companies have lagged so far
With further room for the economic recovery and a pickup in global inflation, European company profits might now finally see the long-awaited turn. Earnings revisions momentum (ratio of up/down estimates, 3months moving average) Above 1 = Topix more upward than downward revisions MSCI Europa S&P 500 MSCI EM EU earnings improving though 2017/Q3 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, AllianzGI Economics & Strategy, March 2017. This is for guidance only and not indicative of future allocation. The above information is used for the purpose to demonstrate the Funds investment strategy only, it is not a recommendation nor investment advice to buy or sell any shares of securities. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 45 Despite rotation, most sectors remain risk-on 46 Additional disclosure Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. This is a marketing communication. It is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. Certain data used are
derived from various sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the data is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from their use. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted. This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authorities. In mainland China, it is used only as supporting material to the offshore investment products offered by commercial banks under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme pursuant to applicable rules and regulations. This document is being distributed by the following Allianz Global Investors companies: Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; Allianz Global Investors GmbH, an investment company in Germany, authorized by the German Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin); Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Ltd., licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission; Allianz Global Investors Singapore Ltd., regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore [Company Registration No. 199907169Z]; Allianz Global Investors Japan Co., Ltd., registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator [Registered No. The Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business Operator), No. 424, Member of Japan Investment Advisers Association]; and Allianz Global Investors Taiwan Ltd., licensed by Financial Supervisory Commission in Taiwan. 47
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