Tue 6th Nov 2018 China National Sword Issues & Responses Presented by: Mike Ritchie WasteMINZ 2018 Target 2050: China National Sword Date: Tue 6th Nov 2018 Time: 11:00 AM 12:30 PM 20 minutes presentation Venue: Plenary Room What is Chinas National Sword policy? The goal: The actions: Imports of solid waste that can be substituted by domestic resources will be phased out by the end of 2019 State Council of China - it is NOT about contamination. It is about industry policy. Revoked licences Inspections at ports
Feb 2017 National Sword July & Nov Ban of paper & plastic scrap (24 waste categories) - WTO Mar 2018 Suspended processing facilities 0.5% contamination paper & plastic Revoked licences Inspections at ports Blue Sky Suspended processing facilities
Note MRFs were never designed to achieve 0.5% Size of the Problem NZ Fibre 485,000t recovered (120,000t domestic) Loss in value Visy mixed paper $10.5M; OJI $6.4M Loss in value to Councils = 120,000t x $200/t = $24M Plastic 45,000t recovered (10,000t domestic) Assume all mixed plastic @ $100/t fall in price (assumes PET & HDPE maintains price) Loss of value to Councils = 10,000t x $100/t = $1M Tonnages Fibre NZ Generation 485,000t C&I MSW Export (275,000t)
155,000t 120,000t NZ use (210,000t) 150,000t 60,000t Plastic NZ Generation 40,000t C&I MSW Export (~100%) 30,000t 10,000t NZ use 0
0 Some key points Contamination MRF contamination is not the same as export contamination MRF contamination 8% and CONSTANT It is not efficient to reduce the last 5% in MRF Therefore it is exported with 5% contamination Reflected in the price It is all about fibre (94% of the problem) Australia 1,200,000 1,000,000 Tonnes 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000
- 2007 2008 2009 Paper to China 2010 Plastic to China 2011 Paper to rest of world 2012 2013 Plastic to rest of world 2014 2015
2016 It is all about Fibre for MRFs as well Material input stream Percentage (%) Fibre - paper and cardboard 53 Glass 30 Plastic 6 Tin cans 2 Al cans 1
Contamination 8 TOTAL 100 The impacts on MRFs ustr MRF $225 Paper Mix $50 $250 Plastic Mix $50 $72 Glass ($60)
$100 Steel Gate fee +$30-($40) Processing costs ($100) $1,500 Aluminum Weighted Average loss = $100/input tonne MRFs are no longer profitable at new commodity prices and existing gate fees Impacts on mini MRF gate fee BASE CURRENT input % Historical average sale price ($/t) Jan18
average sale price ($/t) Drop in price ($/t output) Weighted loss in output value ($/t MRF input) Paper and paper products (mixed fibre) Plastics (mixed plastics) 55% $225 $50 $175 $96 8%
$250 $50 $200 $16 Glass 30% $72 -$60 $132 $40 Ferrous material Non-ferrous material Other 2%
1% 2% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Material category TOTAL DIFFERENCE National Sword 100% National Sword
Aust. Market $152 Or $112 without glass The impacts on Councils and households Increased MRF costs ~$100/t Rate increase to cover the increased MRF cost ~$31/hh/year Approx 4% (NOT including on-shore costs or future falls) 1 Source: NSW Local Government WARR Data Report Average household generates 5.4 kg/wk1 or 280kg/yr What is actually happening? Recyclables ARE still being exported, albeit at lower prices Recycling gate fees ARE increasing but they remain lower than landfill gate fees due to landfill levies Mid term Circular Economy - on-shore reprocessing Accept the lower sale price of exporting to other Asian countries
Cost $100-150/t Operate MRFs to 99.5% quality On-shore secondary reprocessing OR OR value-add to product Up to $400/t Plastic most likely Only available if Asian markets are able to absorb Est $250/t Cost benefit has not been done limited markets for plastic pellets. Unlikely fibre
mill will be onshored. Recycling supply chain Analysis Number of potential actions for NZ Current fall due to National Sword Further fall of $100 in mixed plastics & mixed paper Results didnt change Actions reviewed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Short-term gate fee variations Model contract development Contamination bands Commodity price risk-sharing arrangements
Improve quality of MRF output Develop database of domestic re-processors Investigate growth of on-shore fibre processing Investigate growth of on-shore plastic processing National waste data recording system Positive procurement policy MRF MRF MRF MRF MRF Reprocessor Reprocessor Reprocessor Government Government Actions reviewed 11 12 13 14 15 Education to reduce contamination
Stop collection of plastic grades 3-7 National facility licence limits Regulate recyclability of packaging Regulate recycled content of packaging Household Household MRF Government Government Actions reviewed 16 17 18 19 Additional source separation at kerbside (especially glass) Reduce compaction ratios of collection vehicles Relaxation of stockpile limits Developing consistent facility license limits Household Household MRF MRF
Commercial Strategy Planning Auditing Education Modelling Engineering Due diligence
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