Experimental vs. Theoretical Probability Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability

Experimental vs. Theoretical Probability Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability Objectives: 4.04 - Determine and compare experimental and

theoretical probabilities for simple and compound events. Essential Questions: (1) How do we determine and compare experimental and theoretical probabilities for simple and compound events?

Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability Theoretical Probability: - The probability we find on paper. - It is how a probability of an event should happen. Experimental Probability: - Experimental probability refers to the probability of an event occurring when an experiment was conducted.

Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability Theoretical Probability: number of favorable outcomes Theoretical Probability= number of possible outcomes Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability

Experimental Probability: number of event occurrences Experimental Probability= Total number of trials Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability Example 1: Roll a dice. What is the theoretical probability of

rolling a 4? # favorable outcomes # possible outcomes 1 6 The probability of rolling a 4 is 1 out of 6 Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability Example 1 Continued: Roll a dice.

What is the experimental probability of rolling a 4? # event occurrences Total # of trials Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability Example 2: Coins. What is the theoretical probability of flipping a tail?

# favorable outcomes # possible outcomes 1 2 The probability of spinning green is 1 out of 2 or .5 or 50% Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability Example 2 Continued: Coins.

What is the experimental probability of flipping a tail? # favorable outcomes # possible outcomes Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability Guided Practice: Cards Card Trick: - Each student in the group will pick a card from the deck,

shuffle the cards and pick another card five times. The student will pick a total of five cards. To determine experimental probability, find the desired outcome such as number of face cards, over the total numbers of cards drawn. - After all the experiments are performed and experimental probabilities are found, compare them to the theoretical probabilities of each experiment. You may determine how close the two are as fractions, decimals, and percents. Theoretical vs. Experimental

Probability Summary: - Theoretical Probability is the how an outcome should happen, in theory. - Experimental probability refers to the probability of an event occurring when an experiment was conducted. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability

Homework: