Re-Estimation of Biological Reference Points for New England

Re-Estimation of Biological Reference Points for New England

Re-Estimation of Biological Reference Points for New England Groundfish Stocks Terms of Reference Working Group Composition and Support Background to Re-Estimation Project Description of Working Group Procedures & Report Summary of Specific Results and Terms of Reference assemble appropriate abundance, catch and other data for 19 stocks included in the Northeast Multispecies FMP agree on appropriate methodology with which to estimate maximum long-term yield and associated biomass and fishing mortality rates revise estimates of Bmsy and F msy (or proxies) as appropriate project stock status through 2009 relative to long-term biomass targets and calculate maximum fishing mortality rates necessary to achieve targets (if possible) comment on methods to estimate target mortality rates for rebuilt stocks that minimize probability stocks will fall below Bmsy in the future Working Group Composition Outside Members: Dr. Jim Armstrong NCDMF Mr. Stratis Gavaris DGO-NB Dr. Pamela Mace NMFS-O/S&T Dr. Rick Methot NMFS-NWFSC Dr. Grant Thompson NMFS-AKFSC Dr. Doug Vaughan NMFS-SEFSC Council Observers: Mr. Tom Nies Mr. Steve Correia (MDMF) NEFSC Participants:

Dr. Jon Brodziak Mr. Steve Cadrin Dr. Chris Legault Mr. Ralph Mayo Dr. Steve Murawski - Chair Ms. Loretta OBrien Dr. Bill Overholtz Dr. Paul Rago Dr. Fred Serchuk Dr. Mike Sissenwine Dr. Mark Terceiro Ms. Susan Wigley Experts in Reference Point Estimation Experienced with NMFS SFA Guidelines (authors) Expedited Process Background New data available, especially documenting re-building of many stocks (important in determining conditions for re-building) Some reference points inconsistently determined with assessment methods and data (e.g., some results from Overfishing Panel) Surplus Production Models tend to Find Bmsy and Fmsy within the Range of observed data (even for chronically overfished stocks) (scallop example, haddock example) Recommendations for multiple approaches applied to data sets (NRC Reviews) Proxy reference points (survey biomass and exploitation indices) currently not linked to re-building schedules Biomass Reference Point OFD Committee : Average Recruitment * Biomass/recruit Georges Bank Haddock Landings (Metric Tons ('000s))

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Georges Bank Haddock 500 Recruitment (millions) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1930

1940 1950 1960 1970 Year Class 1980 1990 2000 Georges Bank Haddock Spawning Stock Biomass (k mt) 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Year Class 1980 1990 2000 Groundfish Trawl Mesh 1952 (by H. Graham)

GEORGES BANK GROUNDFISH TRAWL SEA SAMPLING - 1913 HADDOCK HAKE COD REDFISH DISCARD LANDED SILVER HAKE DOGFISH FLOUNDERS SKATES G. SOLE ANGLER OTHERS 0 10 20 30 40 50 Percent of Catch Sampled 60 70 Procedures and Report 4 Primary Methods Used to Estimate Bmsy & Fmsy -Parametric Stock-Recruitment Models - Non-Parametric Empirical Approach - Surplus Production Models (ASPIC) - Index-Based Methods Up to 24 different parametric functional forms fit to S-R Data - selection criteria developed - Curved relationships considered but not without mechanism - Compared with non-parametric approach Non-parametric approach applied BPR * some statistical moment of

the recruitment distribution (mean, median, quartiles) Surplus production estimates from SARC 33 Reviewed for GB Winter Flounder & White Hake Accepted New Index Methods developed and tested (Replacement Ratio) What do we mean by Functional Forms? Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 BH ABH PBH PABH PRBH PRABH P2BH P2ABH PRHCBH PRHCABH RK ARK PRK PARK VPA Data F=0 F(0.1) F40% Fmsy FMAX Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder Recruitment (age 1, millions)

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 F40% msp = 0.25 20 F=0.0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Spawning Stock Biomass (k metric tons) 70 Non-Parametric Example Georges Bank Haddock Recruitment (age 1, millions) 500 200 150 100 mean rct. = 68.87

50 F 40% msp = 0.263 F = 0.0 0 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 Spawning Biomass (k metric tons) 225 250 Probability Spawning Biomass >/= Target Georges Bank Haddock Projections 0.7 0.6 Fmsy = 0.26 F-rebuild = 0.21 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2001 2002

2003 2004 2005 2006 Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 Georges Bank Haddock Spawning Stock Biomass (k mt) 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Georges Bank Haddock - Catches 70 Catch (k mt) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year GOM Haddock, Fall Index Method Replacement ratio 1.0 1.5 2.0 96 Replacement Ratio 00 95 78 99 97 75 1.00 73 98 7677 79 69 947168 70 74 87 84 88 72 1.00 85

93 81 80 83 82 86 89 90 0.10 78 67 6865 79 66 69 75 77 70 71 76 0.10 91 92 64 10.00 00 73 99 96 72 74 1.00 97 98 85 84 83

82 87 88 95 10.00 80 81 86 89 1.00 93 90 94 92 0.10 0.5 1.0 91 1.5 2.060 70 80 90 100 Year Relative F 8 7 2.0

1.5 6 1.0 5 0.5 4 3 2 1 0 60 70 80 90 Year 100 110 60 70 80 90 Year 100 110 Relative F Landings (mt) 0.10 110 Fall Survey (kg/tow) Fall Survey (kg/tow)

Replacement Ratio 6-panel Plots 0. 5 Gulf of Maine Haddock 60 7 50 6 Biomass Index (kg/tow) Landings (metric tons, '000s) 8 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year MSY/ Biomass Index = relF Fall Index Spring Index 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1965

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 5.1/X = 0.23, applying algebra, Target Biomass Index = 22.17 2000 Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank Haddock Closely Linked Fall Surveys Gulf of Maine Haddock (kg/tow) 100 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Georges Bank Haddock (kg/tow) 1000 GM Cod Fs 2000 MSY, rebuild

GB Cod GB Haddock GB Yellowtail SNE Yellowtail CC Yellowtail F-2000 F-msy F-rebuild Plaice Witch SNE Winter Fl. GB Winter Fl. Redfish White hake 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 Fishing Mortality Rate (F) 1.00 GM Haddock MA Yellowtail Pollock N. Window F-2000 F-msy S. Window Ocean Pout 0 1 2

3 4 5 6 Fishing Mortality Rate Index (refF) 7 GM Cod GB Cod GB Haddock GM Haddock GB Yellowtail 2001 Catches vs. MSYs SNE Yellowtail CC Yellowtail MA Yellowtail Plaice Sum 2001 = 69.2 Sum MSY = 192.9 (36%) 2001 Catch MSY Witch SNE Winter Fl GB Winter Fl Redfish White Hake Pollock N. Window S. Window Ocean Pout Halibut 0 10 20

30 40 Catch ('000s metric tons) 50 60 Gulf of Maine -Fall Survey Indices (kg/tow) Each Stock Plotted Vs. sum of all others Fall Index (kg/tow) Jackknife Plots 25 20 15 64 68 71 79 80 6566 77 67 75 73 81 GOM Cod 70 72 10 74 8483 85 69 78 00 10.00

86 90 89 95 99 87 94 96 97 96 87 9897 00 89 93 92 20 30 40 Fall Index (kg/tow) 77 73 78 69 68 87 97 90 92 98 96 84 95 91 89 93

1 6570 71 66 81 85 74 83 86 75 63 79 80 72 88 99 86 90 12 10 8 6 64 Redfish 00 74 99 97 Fall Index (kg/tow) 20 40

60 80 100 Total Index w/o Pollock 81 6680 4 65 77 83 3 2 94 90 97 84 91 86 74 78 79 7668 72 89 87 95 85 8483 5 4 3 66 70 77 68

71 Witch Flounder 84 83 72 65 81 67 73 80 64 1 99 97 72 20 40 60 80 100 Total Index w/o Am. Plaice 94 96 8600 69 63 78 64 79 7485 89 87 63 86 88 2

69 69 78 71 20 40 60 80 100 Total Index w/o Redfish 71 73 70 85 92 88 1 00 67 75 95 99 93 98 96 63 67 7377 79 76 65 80 81 92 91 94 Am. Plaice 00 90 93

2 67 70 66 98 96 4 64 68 75 94 7 6 5 72 20 30 40 50 60 70 Total Index w/o Haddock 50 60 70 80 90 76 Pollock 2 69 92 91 0.10 Total Index w/o Cod Circles are each year

6478 94 93 8 7 6 5 4 3 66 6879 77 80 73 71 70 8176 74 88 95 1.00 98 10 85 83 84 99 91 65 67 75 76 88

5 63 GOM Haddock 63 75 76 95 93 88 91 98 90 89 87 92 20 40 60 80 100 Total Index w/o Witch Flounder Ratio of Biomass in 2000 to Re-Estimated Bmsy Pout S. Window N. Window Pollock White Hake Redfish GB Winter Fl SNE Winter Fl Witch Plaice MA YTF CC YTF SNE YTF GB YTF GM Haddock GB Haddock GB Cod GM Cod 0.00 0.25

0.50 0.75 1.00 B-2000 / B-msy Figure 4.3.3. Ratio of biomass in 2000 to Bmsy for 18 groundfish stocks. Specific Results & Advice Biomass and Fishing mortality reference points have been updated for 15 of the 19 stocks considered For only two stocks the surplus production estimates of Bmsy and Fmsy are retained (GB Winter Flounder, White Hake) For all stocks, reference point estimation is now compatible with stock monitoring methods No indication that Multispecies interactions will limit attainment of revised biomass targets Projections in the medium term are problematic for a few stocks Working Group recommends an Adaptive Approach to Biomass

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