Singularity Economics An Evolutionary Developmental Proposal John Smart

Singularity Economics An Evolutionary Developmental Proposal John Smart

Singularity Economics An Evolutionary Developmental Proposal John Smart April 2004, Los Angeles, CA 2004 Accelerating.org Institute for Accelerating Change IAC (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of systems theorists and lay futurists exploring accelerating change. First, we practice "developmental" future studies, that is, we focus primarily on highly probable, convergent, and apparently permanent forces and emerging capacities of our onrushing future.

Second, we ask what evolutionary choices we have within humanity's apparently continually accelerating technological developmental framework. 2004 Accelerating.org Intro to Future Studies Four Types Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art) Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations) Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans)

Research-Predictive (Stable Developmental Trends) The last is the critical one for singularity studies It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses Accelerating, increasingly efficient, and increasingly local computation is apparently the fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend. Or not. 2004 Accelerating.org Problem: The Prediction Wall Ten-year business plans (1950's) have been replaced with ten-week (quarterly) plans (2000's).

Planning beyond two years in some technology fields can be unwise speculation. There is a growing inability of human minds to imagine our future, a time that must apparently include greater-than-human technological sophistication and intelligence. Judith Berman, in "Science Fiction Without the Future," 2001, notes that even our science fiction writers have mostly abandoned any attempt to portray the hyperaccelerated technological world of fifty years hence. 2004 Accelerating.org What Can We Predict? Lets Focus on Four Things. First: 1. The History of Continuous Acceleration 2. The Theory of Evolutionary Development 3. Examples of Hierarchical Emergence Well use these three subjects to make some broad comments on:

4. The Future of Automation and Economics Your feedback is most welcome. 2004 Accelerating.org A Brief History of Acceleration Something Curious Is Going On Unexplained. (Dont look for this in your physics or information theory texts) 2004 Accelerating.org A U-Shaped Curve? Big Bang Singularity 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds 100,000 yrs: Matter 1B yrs: Protogalaxies

Developmental Singularity 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap. 8B yrs: Earth 2004 Accelerating.org Big Bang to Complex Stars: The Slowing Phase 2004 Accelerating.org Life to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase Carl Sagans Cosmic Calendar (Dragons of

Eden, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years. 2004 Accelerating.org Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology, Technology, Economics, and Politics Eldredge and Gould (Biological Species) Paretos Law (The 80/20 Rule) (income distribution technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Development) 80% Equilibrium (Evolution)

Suggested Reading: For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More 2004 Accelerating.org Saturation: A Biological Lesson How S Curves Get Old Resource limits in a niche Material Energetic Spatial Temporal Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing Curious Facts: 1. Universal structure permits each new computational substrate to be greatly more MEST resource-efficient than the last

2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time 2004 Accelerating.org Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to improve our intelligence, interdependence, and resiliency, these wont always work. What is certain is that successful solutions always increase MEST efficiency, they do more with less. Strategies to capitalize on this: Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill. Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions. Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency. Build a national culture that rewards refinements. Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source Software. Last years mature technologies. Recycling. 30 million old cell phones in U.S. homes and businesses. 2004 Accelerating.org

Brief History of Accelerating Change Billion Years Ago Generations Ago 12 Big Bang (MEST) 11.5 Milky Way (Atoms) 8 Sun (Energy) 4.5

Earth (Molecules) 3.5 Bacteria (Cell) 2.5 Sponge (Body) 0.7 Clams (Nerves) 0.5 Trilobites (Brains) 0.2

Bees (Swarms) 0.100 Mammals 0.002 Humans, Tools & Clans Co-evolution 100,000 Speech 750 Agriculture

500 Writing 400 Libraries 40 Universities 24 Printing 16 Accurate Clocks

5 Telephone 4 Radio 3 Television 2 Computer 1 Internet/e-Mail

0 GPS, CD, WDM 2004 Accelerating.org Observation 1: Tech Interval Time Compression 3 million years ago collective rock throwing; early stone use 1.5 million years ago lever, wedge, inclined plane 500,000 years ago control of fire 50,000 years ago bow and arrow; fine tools

5,000 years ago wheel and axle; sail 500 years ago printing press with movable type; rifle 50 years ago commercial digital computers 10 years ago commercial internet 2004 Accelerating.org Obs. 2: Continuous Tech Innovation

(Even 400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague) Technological or Sociotechnological Innovation Date (A.D.), Location Alchemy (pre-science) develops a wide following Constantinople University Powers and Roots (Arybhata) Heavy plow; horse shoes; practical horse harness Wooden coffins (Alemanni) Draw looms (silk weaving) Decimal reckoning Canterbury Monastery/University Book printing Suan-Ching (Science Encyclopedia) Originum Etymologiarum Liibri XX (Sci. Encyc.) First surgical procedures Water wheel for milling (Medieval energy source) Stirrup arrives in Europe from China Early Chemistry (Abu Masa Dshaffar)

410, Europe 425, Turkey 476, India 500, Europe 507, Germany 550, Egypt 595, India 598, England 600, China 619, China 622, Spain 650, India 700, Europe 710, Europe 720, Mid-East 2004 Accelerating.org Continuous Tech Innovation

(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague) Medicine, Astronomy, Math, Optics, Chemistry Hanlin Academy Pictorial Book Printing Iron and smithing become common; felling ax Chemistry (Jabir) Mayan Acropoli (peak) Algebra (Muhammed al Chwarazmi) Ptolemaic Astronomy; Soap becomes common Rotary grindstone to sharpen iron Paper money Salerno University Iron becomes common; Trebuchets Astrolabe (navigation) Angkor Thom (city) New Mathematics and Science (Jahiz, Al-Kindi) Viking shipbuilding Paper arrives in Arab world 750, Arab Spain

750, China 765, Japan 770, Europe 782, Mid-East 800, Mexico 810, Persia 828, Europe 834, Europe 845, China 850, Italy 850, Europe 850, Mid-East 860, Cambodia 870, Mid-East 900, Europe 900, Egypt 2004 Accelerating.org Continuous Tech Innovation

(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague) Salerno Medical School Linens and woolens First European bridges Arithmetical notation brought to Europe by Arabs 1,000 volume encyclopedia First Mayan and Tiuanaco Civilizations Horizontal loom Astrolabe arrives in Europe Greek medicine arrives in Europe (Constantine) Water-driven mechanical clock Antidotarum (2650 medical prescriptions) Bologna University Mariner's compass Town charters granted (protecting commerce) Al-Idrisi's "Geography" Oxford University Vertical sail windmills 900, Italy

942, Flanders 963, England 975, Europe 978, China 1000, Cent./S.America 1000, Europe 1050, Europe 1070, Europe 1090, China 1098, Italy 1119, Italy 1125, Europe 1132, France 1154, Italy 1167, England 1180, Europe 2004 Accelerating.org Continuous Tech Innovation

(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague) Glass mirrors Second Mayan Civilization Cambridge University Arabic numerals in Europe (Leonardo Fibonacci) Tiled roofs Cotton manufacture Coal mining Roger Bacon, our first scientist (Opus; Communia) Goose quill writing pen The inquisition begins using instruments of torture Tradesman guilds engage in street fighting over turf Toll roads Human dissection England Wood block printing; spectacles Standardization of distance measures (yard, acre) Use of gunpowder for firearms (Berthold Schwarz) Sawmill; wheelbarrow; cannon (large and hand)

1180, England 1190, Cent. America 1200, England 1202, England 1212, England 1225, Spain 1233, England 1250, England 1250, Italy 1252, Spain 1267, England 1269, England 1275, 1290, Italy 1305, England 1313, Germany 2004 Accelerating.org 1325, Europe Continuous Tech Innovation

(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague) Pisa and Grenoble Universities; Queens College First scientific weather forecasts (William Merlee) Mechanical clock reaches Europe Blast furnaces; cast iron explodes across Europe Steel crossbow first used in war Vienna, Hiedelberg, and Cologne Universities Incorporation of the Fishmonger's Company Johann Gutenberg, inventor of mass printing, born 1330, Europe 1337, England 1354, France 1360, Europe 1370, Europe 1380, Europe 1384, England 1396, Germany

Lesson: Tech innovation appears to be a developmental process, independent of Wars, Enlightenments, Reformations, Inquisitions, Crusades, Subjugations, and other aspects of our cyclic evolutionary ideological, cultural, and economic history. Tech advances are something we consistently choose, even unconsciously, regardless of who is in power, because they have strong "non-zero sum" effects on human aspirations. 2004 Accelerating.org Meta-Trends in Technological Acceleration Moore's Law - Miniaturization Processing, Storage, ... Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months Metcalf's Law - Interconnection

Value of a network increases as the square of the number connections Gilder's Law - Quantization Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months Negroponte's Law - Digitization Superiority of "bits over atoms" Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where ideas are ultimate raw material 2004 Accelerating.org Transistor Doublings (2 years)

Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net 2004 Accelerating.org Processor Performance (1.8 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net 2004 Accelerating.org DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net 2004 Accelerating.org Many Unexpected Physical Processes are Moores-Related: Dickersons Law Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech: Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to

n=exp(0.19y1960) This predicts 14,201 crystal structure entries online in the international Protein Data Bank (PDB) by 2002. The actual number was 14,250, just 49 more. The curve has been surprisingly consistent. 2004 Accelerating.org Hans Moravec, Robot, 1999 2004 Accelerating.org The Technological Singularity Each unique physicalcomputational substrate appears to have its own capability curve. The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is

instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system. 2004 Accelerating.org Henry Adams, 1909: The First Singularity Theorist The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities." Wild speculation or computational reality? Too early to tell,

at present. 2004 Accelerating.org Population History Positive feedback loop: Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics, Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc. 2004 Accelerating.org

What Stopped it? 2004 Accelerating.org The Theory of Evolutionary Development Evolution vs. Development The Twins Thumbprints Consider two identical twins: Thumbprints Brain wiring Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns. Development creates the predictable global patterns. 2004 Accelerating.org

Evolution and Development: The Two Basic Systems Processes Evolution Development Chance Randomness Variety/Many Possibilities Uniqueness Uncertainty Accident Bottom-up Divergent Differentiation Necessity Determinism Unity/One

Constraints Sameness Predictability Design (self-organized or other) Top-Down Convergent Integration Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts. The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate. 2004 Accelerating.org Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/ Pseudo-Random Search Evolution Multicellularity

Discovered Complex Environmental Interaction Cambrian Explosion Bacteria Insects Invertebrates Selection/Emergence/ Phase Space Collapse/ MEST Collapse Development Vertebrates 570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since! Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication). Body/brain plans: eukaryotic multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates. 2004 Accelerating.org

Replication & Variation Natural Selection Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Contingency Pseudo-Random Search Strange Attractors Evolution Complex Environmental Interaction Left and Right Hands of Evolutionary Development Left Hand New Computatl Phase Space Opening Selection & Convergence Convergent Selection Emergence,Global Optima

MEST-Compression Standard Attractors Development Right Hand Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization 2004 Accelerating.org Marbles, Landscape, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, Development) The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST compression), the attractors at the bottom of the basin. 2004 Accelerating.org Simplicity and Complexity Universal Evolutionary Development is: Simple at the Boundaries, Complex In Between

Simple Math Of the Very Small (Big Bang, Quantum Mechanics, Chemistry) Simple Math Of the Very Large Complex Math Of the In Between (Classical Mechanics, General Relativity) (Chaos, Life, Humans, Coming Technologies) Ian Stewart, What Shape is a Snowflake?, 2001 2004 Accelerating.org

The Meaning of Simplicity (Wigners ladder) Complex systems are evolutionary. Simple systems are developmental. Evolution Development Non-Pattern Pattern Variety Uniformity

Symmetry Symmetry Breaking Chaotic Math Simple Math The universe is painting complex local evolutionary pictures, on a simple universe-wide developmental scaffolding. The picture (canvas/intelligence, in the middle) is mathematically complex (Gdelian incomplete), and trillions of times evolutionarily unique. The framework (easel/cosmic structure, very large, & paint/physical laws, MEST structure, very small) is uniform, and simple to understand. 2004 Accelerating.org Examples of Hierarchical Emergence Systems Theory

Systems Theorists Make Things Simple (sometimes too simple!) "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." Albert Einstein 2004 Accelerating.org Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps) Geosphere/Geogenesis (Chemical Substrate) Biosphere/Biogenesis (Biological-Genetic Substrate) Noosphere/Noogenesis (Memetic-Technologic Substrate) Pierre Tielhard de Chardin (1881-1955)

Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist, Developmental Systems Theorist Le Phnomne Humain, 1955 2004 Accelerating.org Systems For Universal Computation (8) (a.k.a. Substrates) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Substrate

I.P. System Galactic-Subatomic Stellar-Elemental Planetary-Molecular Biomass-Unicellular Neurologic-Multicellular Cultural-Linguistic Computational-Technologic AI-Hyperconscious "Galactic" "Atomic" "Chemetic" "Genetic" "Dendritic" "Memetic" "Algorithmic "Technetic"

Note: Each is Vastly More MEST-Compressed and IP-Enabled 2004 Accelerating.org Five Complex Adaptive Systems Individual (Vitality,Creativity,Spirituality) Family/Relationship (Culture,Psychology) Tribal/Nation (Politics,Economics) Species/Planet (Peace,Globalization,Environment) Universal (Science,Technology,Computation) Question: Which is unlike the others? This last system is growing apparently asymptotically in local capacities These five systems may exist on all Earth-like planets (e.g., astrobiologically developed). 2004 Accelerating.org

Three Systems of Social Change Sociotechnological (dominant since 1950!) Its all about the technology (what it enables, how inexpensively it can be developed) Economic (dominant 1800-1950s, secondary now) Its all about the money (who has it, control they gain with it) Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800s, tertiary now) Its all about the power (who has it, control they gain with it) Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to fastest first. 2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level. Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGOs, rise of the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc. 2004 Accelerating.org The Developmental Spiral

Hominid Age Homo Sapiens Sapiens Tribal Age Agricultural Age Empires Age Scientific Age Industrial Age Information Age

Symbiotic Age Autonomy Age Tech Singularity 2,000,000 yrs ago 100,000 yrs 25,000 yrs 7,000 yrs 2,500 yrs 380 yrs (1500-1770) 180 yrs (1770-1950) 70 yrs (1950-2020) 30 yrs (2020-2050) 10 yrs (2050-2060) 2060 2004 Accelerating.org Gently Tightening Subcycles Period

Subcycle Some Features 1390-1500, 110 yrs 1500-1600, 100 yrs 1600-1690, 90 yrs 1690-1770, 80 yrs 1770-1840, 70 yrs 1840-1900, 60 yrs 1900-1950, 50 yrs 1950-1990, 40 yrs 1990-2020, 30 yrs 2020-2040, 20 yrs 2040-2050, 10 yrs 2050-2060, 5/2/1 Pre-Scientific Rev. 1st Scientific Rev. 2nd Scientific Rev.

3rd Scientific Rev. 1st Industrial Rev. 2nd Industrial Rev. 3rd Industrial Rev. 1st Computer Rev. 2nd Computer Rev. 1st Symbiotic Rev. 2nd Symbiotic Rev. Autonomy Revs Oresme, Coord.Geom., Series Copernicus, Vesalius Bruno, Kepler, Descartes Newton, Linnaeus CWT: Coal, Wood, Textiles SST: Steam,Steel,Telegrph ICE: Int.Comb,Chem, Electr Dig.Comp,Engrg,MNCs,TV Planetnet, MIME, Security GUI,LUI,NUI, Peace/Justice

Coll. Intell., Minor Magic Autonomy-Under-the-Hood Circa 2060 Tech Singularity AI,Earthpark(Next:Uploads) 2004 Accelerating.org Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles? A A A

30-year cycle, from 1990-2020 1st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2nd gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins. 20-year cycle, from 2020-2040 LUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation, Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades. 10-year cycle, from 2040-2050 LUI personality capture (weak uploading), Mature Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing. 2050: Era of Strong Autonomy Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles, each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric. 2004 Accelerating.org

Tech Singularity Overview Circa 2060: Technological Singularity The AI (shortly thereafter, AI's) claim selfawareness. True, 3rd-gen uploading begins. World population hits its maximum (2030-2050), declines increasingly rapidly thereafter. Any Fixed-Complexity Replicating Substrate (e.g. Homo Sapiens) 2040 1970 The Envelope Curve is Local Universal Computation

Sources: Warren Sanderson, Nature, 412, 2001 Tom McKendree, Hughes Aircraft, 1994 2004 Accelerating.org Types of Singularities Mathematical Physical Cosmological (our best model?) Computational Developmental (our best model?) Technological

"singular" human-competitive A.I. Emergence discontinuous (physical-dynamical singularity) unknowable (computational-cognitive singularity) convergent (developmental singularity) hierarchical (developmental singularity) instantaneous (developmental singularity) reproductive (developmental singularity) 2004 Accelerating.org Sagan, Chaisson, Moore, Vinge Chaissons Phi, a Free Energy Rate Density Substrate Galaxies Stars Planets (Early) Plants Animals/Genetics

Brains (Human) Culture (Human) Int. Comb. Engines Jets Pentium Chips (ergs/second/gram) 0.5 2 (unexpected?) 75 900 20,000(10^4) 150,000(10^5) 500,000(10^5) (10^6) (10^8) (10^11) Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001

2004 Accelerating.org Growth and Limits of Computation Universal Computing to Date: 10^120 logical ops Turing, Von Neumann, Ed Fredkin, John Wheeler Digital Computing to Date: 10^31 logical ops Half this was produced in the last 2 year doubling. 300 Doublings to a Past-Closed Omega Comp. Understanding most Developmental History and some of Evol. History. (e.g., CAs, Gen. Engrg.) Computing right down to Planck Scale? No Minimum Energy to Send a Bit (Landauer) Quantum and Femto-Scale Processes

Sources: Seth Lloyd, Computational Capacity of the Universe, Phys.Rev.Lett., 2002 Bennett & Landauer, Fund. Phys. Limits of Computation, Sci. Am., July 1985 2004 Accelerating.org Binding Energy (of Computational Structure) Systems theorist Ervin Laszlo (Evolution, 1987) notes each hierarchically emergent universal substrate greatly decreases the binding energy of its diverse (evolutionary) physical configurations. Examples: matter (earliest emerging physical substrate), e.g., protons and neutrons within the nucleus of atoms, is bound by nuclear exchange ("strong") forces atoms are joined by much weaker ionic or covalent (electromagnetic) bonds cells within multicellular organisms are connected "another dimension down the scale of bonding energy." memes encoded in a vesicular-morphologic language of synaptic weights and dendritic arborization involve vastly less binding energy still technemes, in communicable electronically-encoded algorithms and logic

circuitry involve orders of magnitude less binding energy yet again. gravitons. Note gravity is the 2nd weakest of the five known forces (only dark energy is weaker). Yet in Smolins model gravity guides us to black holes as a developmental attractor for substrate computation in this universe. In other words, the MEST efficiency, or energy cost of computation, of learning (encoding, remembering, reorganizing) rapidly tends to zero in emergent substrates as we approach the developmental singularity. 2004 Accelerating.org Understanding MEST Compression We End Up Here The Finite Universe Box Six Billion

Years Ago MEST compression/Time 2004 Accelerating.org A Developmental Universe? Developmental Lesson: A Possible Destiny of Species MEST compression, Intelligence, Interdependence, Immunity Inner Space, Not Outer Space (Mirror Worlds, Age of Sims) Black Hole Equivalent Transcension? 2004 Accelerating.org Just what exactly are black holes? 2004 Accelerating.org Lee Smolins Answer: Cosmological Natural Selection At least 8 of the 20 standard model

universal parameters appear tuned for: black hole production multi-billion year old Universes (capable of creating Life) The Life of the Cosmos, 1996 2004 Accelerating.org Developmental Singularity Overview Post 2060 Full AI Sim of Human Thoughtspace (ref.: Our multimillion dollar sims of bacterial metabolome) Historical Computational Closure (astronomy, geography, brains, etc.). Maps rapidly close the very large, and very small, leaving only the very complex

"Inner space," not outer space, now appears to be our constrained developmental destiny, incredibly soon in cosmologic time. " For astronomical closure, see Martin Harwit, Cosmic Discovery, 1981 2004 Accelerating.org Physics of a MESTI Universe Physical Driver: MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density Emergent Properties: Information Intelligence (World Models) Information Interdepence (Ethics) Information Immunity (Resiliency) Information Incompleteness (Search) A Speculation in Information Theory: Entropy = Negentropy Universal Energy Potential is Conserved. 2004 Accelerating.org

The Future of Automation and Economics World Economic Performance GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 1999 A.D. This curve looks very smooth on a macroscopic scale. The knee of the curve occurs at the industrial revolution, circa 1850. 2004 Accelerating.org Finite-Time Singularities

PDEs of General Relativity in a mass field, leading to black hole formation PDEs of Euler equations of inviscid fluids in relation to turbulence Rotating coin spinning down to a table (Eulers disk) Earthquakes (ex: slip-velocity Ruina-Dieterich friction law and accelerating creep) Micro-organism chemotaxis models (aggregation to form fruiting bodies) Stock market crashes (as catastrophic events).

Source: Didier Sornette, Critical Phenomena in the Natural Sciences, 1999 2004 Accelerating.org Macrohistorical Finite-Time Singularities Trees of Evolution, 2000 Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003 Singularity 2080 30 years Singularity 2050 10 years 2004 Accelerating.org Understanding Automation Between 1995 and 2002 the worlds 20 largest economies lost 22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing

to a Service/Information Economy. 1995-02, America lost 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China. China lost 15 million such jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune) Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, our country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since 1992. (Economist) Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we knew on farms and the assembly line. (Tsvi Bisk) "The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003 "Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003 2004 Accelerating.org Lesson: The Social Value of Most Jobs Is Delivered In Mechanical Automation 90%

of today's typical First World jobs are paid for by automation. Developing countries are next in line (soon or late). The human contribution (10%) of a First World job is Creativity+Education Continual education and grants (tax the machines) as final destination for biological human beings. Termite Mound 2004 Accelerating.org Example: Automated Oil Refinery Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators,

each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators. 2004 Accelerating.org Problem: Social Disruption Due to Technological Revolutions Manufacturing Globalization Revolution (1980s) Info Tech (IT) Globalization Revolution (2000s) LUI Automation Revolution (2020s) Some jobs that went to Mexican maquiladoras in the 1980s are going to China in the 2000s. Many of these jobs will go to machines in the 2020s. What to do? 2004 Accelerating.org Automation Development Creates

Massive Economic-Demographic Shifts Automating of farming pushed people into factories (1820, 80% of us were farmers, 2% today) Automating of factories is pushing people into service (1947, 35% were in factories, 14% today) Automating of service is pushing people into information tech (2003, 65% of GDP is in service industry) Automating of IT will push people into symbiont groups (personality capture) Automating of symbiont groups will push people beyond biology (transhumanity) 2004 Accelerating.org ITs Exponential Economics Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net 2004 Accelerating.org

Automation and the Service Society Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio, 110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1 2004 Accelerating.org The Future of Work: A Tax- and FoundationSupported Age of Global Philanthropy A 2050 Scenario: As technology-driven corporate GDP grows exponentially at 4% or more each year, historical analysis argues governments will continue to do by far the most social contract giving, (100:10:1 govt. to individual to corporate giving ratio). That would mean that the service work of many, perhaps even most of our 200 million+ employees (total 2050 pop. of 300-400 million) circa 2050 will be supported by grant proposals to the government to do various public works, in the same the way our countrys 1.5 million nonprofits presently are supported by government and foundations grants today.

Secondarily, individuals and their foundations, with progressively increased social leverage due to tech-aided wealth increase, will do more giving each year. Look to individuals, with their uniquely creative and transformative giving styles (through foundations, legacy, and discretionary giving) to usher in an Age of Global Philanthropy in the post-LUI era after 2020. Finally, while corporations will bring lots of new technology-enabled wealth into the world, governments and individuals will continue to drive philanthropy See: Millionaires and the Millennium, Havens and Schervish, 1999 2004 Accelerating.org U.S. Transcontinental Railroad: Promontory Point Fervor

Built by hard-working immigrants The Network of the 1880s 2004 Accelerating.org IT Globalization Revolution (2000-20): Promontory Point Revisited The more things change, the more some things stay the same. The coming intercontinental internet will be built primarily by hungry young programmers and tech support personnel in India, Asia, third-world Europe, Latin America, and other developing economic zones. In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the First World technical support population between five- and ten-to-one. Consider what this means for the goals of modern business and education: Teaching skills for global

management, partnerships, and collaboration. 2004 Accelerating.org Technological Globalization: Winners Globalization is less a choice than a statistical inevitability, once we have accelerating, globe-spanning technologies (communication, databases, travel) on a planet of finite surface area (sphericity). There are some clear winners in this phase transition, such as: Network Memes and Traditions like Free Markets, Democracy, Peace and other Interdependencies (The Ideas that Conquered the World, Michael Mandelbaum) Big Cities (backbone of the emerging superorganism) (Global Networks, Linked Cities, Saskia Sassen) Global Corporations (large and small) (New World, New Rules, Marina Whitman) 2004 Accelerating.org

Technological Globalization: Losers Some of the longer term losers: Non-Network Memes and Traditions like Autocracy, Fascism, Indefinite Protectionism, Communism (Power and Prosperity, Mancur Olson) Centrally-Planned (mostly Top-Down) vs. Market-Driven (mostly Bottom-Up) Economies (Third World War) (The Commanding Heights, Daniel Yergin) (Against the Tide, Douglas Irwin) Groups or Nations with Ideologies/Religions Sanctioning Network-Breaking Violence (Fourth World War) (The Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington) Centrally-Planned vs. Self-Organizing Political Systems (excepting critical systems, like Security) (The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel) 2004 Accelerating.org

Technological Globalization: Uncertains Most elements of modern society, of course, are evolutionary, meaning they remain indeterminate actors which may or may not become winners. Their fate depends critically on the paths we choose. Some key examples: Humanist Memes like Justice, Equal Opportunity, Individual Responsibility, Education, Charity, Compassion, Cultural Diversity, Sustainability, Religious Tolerance (The Dignity of Difference, Jonathan Sacks) The Unskilled Poor (In All Economies, U.S. to Uganda) (A Future Perfect, Micklethwait and Wooldridge) The Developing World (The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto) 2004 Accelerating.org Socioeconomic Globalization: Two Dialogs of Change Socioeconomic discussions concern both development (likely or inevitable futures) and evolution (paths we choose toward

the attractor). Two valuable dialogs: Fukuyama: Global democratic capitalism is an End of History, probably the last stable developmental attractor for the structure of our human economies. Stiglitz: This may be true, but the evolutionary path taken can be greatly improved. Cultural sensitivity, and more IMF/WB/WTO democracy and transparency are needed. Expect conflict, including some rioting in the streets, as stakes are high for all. These are prime issues of choice. 2004 Accelerating.org 5 Info- and Socio-technological Levers for Third World in the 21st Century 1. Infotech (Education, Digital Ecologies) 2. Globalization (Education, Bilingualism, Unique Competitive Advantages) 3. Transparency (Education, Accountability,

Anti-Corruption) 4. Liberalization (Education, Legal and Democratic Reform) 5. Compassion (Education, Rich-Poor Divides, NGOs, Workfare, Philanthropy) 2004 Accelerating.org Infotech: Digital Ecologies Key Questions: Public access? Subsidized? Education? Strong network effects. Intrinsically socially stabilizing. There is no digital divide. (Cato Institute) Radio Low Power TV Groupware Game PCs Internet IM/SMS

Avatars Email Cell Phones Cordless Phones Newspapers (Program Guides) Desktop PCs PDAs Social Software 2004 Accelerating.org A Simulation Society (Hyperreality) A Transparent Society (Panopticon) The Desert of the Real (Reality vs. Hyperreality)

Jean Baudrillard, Simulacra and Simulations, 1981 David Gelernter, Mirror Worlds, 1991 Hitachis mu-chip: RFID for paper currency David Brin, The Transparent Society, 1998 2004 Accelerating.org Key Shifts in the Venture Capital Market Switching is shifting from circuits to packets. Data, then voice; Backbone, then access Transmission is shifting from electronic to photonic. First long haul, then metro, then local access

Functions are moving from the enterprise to the Net. IP universal protocol/ platform of choice is the Net Offerings are moving from products to services. "Utilitization" of processing, applications, storage, knowledge (More agent-based, more from MEST-compressed, more Bioscience is moving in vitro to in silico. network-like, morethen information-based,

hardware First Genomics, Proteomics, thenmore nanotechnologies oriented.) Source: Jim Spohrer, IBM Almaden, 2004 2004 Accelerating.org MEST Compression as a Developmental Attractor: Dont Bet Against It! Balloon Satellites: Disruptive Tech? Inventor: Hokan Colting 21stCenturyAirships.com 180 feet diameter. Autonomous. 60,000 feet (vs. 22,000 miles) Permanent geosynch. location. Onboard solar and navigation. A quarter sized receiver dish. Q1: Which apps have been

discussed? a. Border monitoring b. City monitoring c. Urban broadband d. Early warning radar Q2: Why are satellites presently failing against the wired world? Latency, bandwidth, launch costs. MEST compression always wins. 2004 Accelerating.org Seeing MEST Efficiency and Compression Everywhere in the World Cities

(>50% of world population circa 2005) Working in Offices (or telecommuting with coming videophone virtual offices) Wal-Marts, Mega-Stores, 99 Cent Stores (Retail Endgame: Wal-Mart #1 on Fortune 500 since 2001) Flat-Pack Furniture (Ikea) Category-Killer Stores (Home Depot, Staples) Supply-Chain & Market Aggregators (Dell, Amazon, eBay) Local community/Third Space (Starbucks) 2004 Accelerating.org NBICS: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological Development Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology) Biotech (biotechnology, health care) Infotech (computing and comm. technology) Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors) Sociotech (remaining technology applications)

It is easy to misspend lots of R&D money on a still-early technology in any field. Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless It is even easier to misspend disproportionate amounts of R&D budgets on a less centrally accelerating field. Current examples: Nanotech and biotech Assumption: Any nation today can far more quickly get substantially better infotech than biotech or nanotech. 2004 Accelerating.org Biotech is a Saturated Substrate 21st century neuropharm and neurotech wont accelerate biological complexity! Neural homeostasis fights top-down interventions Most complex structure in the known universe Strong resistance to disruptive biointerventions Ingroup ethics, body image, personal identity Well learn a lot, not biologically redesign humans No human-scale time, ability or reason to do so.

Expect regression to mean (elim. disease) instead. Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity Biologically inspired computing. Structural mimicry. 2004 Accelerating.org Computational Limits on 21st Century Biotechnology Biology is Bottom-Up Designed, Massively Multifactorial, and Nonlinearly Interdependent. Genetically engrd humans (2000) are atomic vacuum cleaners (1950) Increased Differentiation = Decreased Intervention Clipping growth genes into frogs vs. mice vs. pigs. Developmental damage! Negative pleiotropy increases with complexity. Our Genetic Legacy Code Appears Highly Conserved The entire human race is more genetically similar than a single baboon troop. A massive extinction event circa 70,000 years ago is one proposal for this (ref). Much more likely is simple developmental path dependency.

Mental Symbolic Manipulation is Deep Differentiation Wernickes and Brocas are apparent equivalent of metazoan body plans! (see Terrence Deacon, The Symbolic Species, on co-evolution of lang. & brain) Even with preadaptation (Gould) & requisite variety (Ashby), drift = dysfunction. Features of Evol. and Expansion of Modern Humans, Inferred from Genomewide Microsatellite Markers," Zhivotovsky, 2003, AJHG 2004 Accelerating.org Nanotech and Cognotech are both AI-Dependent Systems Two Key Assumptions: Nanotech Will Require Bottom-Up, Biologically-Inspired AI to Realize the full Drexlerian molecular assember vision (Erik Drexler, Engines of Creation, 1986). Cognotech

(e.g., human consciousness) will only expand past its current saturation when we have nanotech and fine-grained AI personality capture interfaces 2004 Accelerating.org Infotech and Sociotech: The Central Drivers Infotech (AI): Process Automation and Simulation Biologically-Inspired Computing Sociotech (IA): Digital Ecologies and Immunity

The Linguistic User Interface 2004 Accelerating.org Linguistic User Interface Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech Watch Windows 2004 become Conversations 2020 2004 Accelerating.org De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological Cephalization of Earth Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition "No one can deny that

a world network of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively." 2004 Accelerating.org AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. IA) AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4.2003) $1B in 93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (now mostly commercial). AGR of 12% U.S., Asia, Europe equally strong Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing

faster than decision support and agents Incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.) Computer telephony (CT) making strides (Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys). ASR and TTS improve. Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop after central CT. (Circa 2010-15?) Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture 2004 Accelerating.org Robo sapiens Huey and Louey AIST and Kawadas HRP-2 Aibo Soccer

2004 Accelerating.org What Computers Do that Humans Dont Humans Need Secrecy, Lies, Violence. They Solve Computational Problems for Us. (Harold Bloom, The Lucifer Principle). But Computers? Open-Ended Learning Capacity: Hyperconsciousness Greater Degrees of Freedom, "Perfect" Retention and Forgetting Communication of Knowledge Structures, Not Just Language Maintain Multiple Perspectives Until Data Come In. No Variation Cost. Computational Ethics: NZS Games, Global Optima Information Flow Hypothesis of Self (Boundary, Dennett) Information Flow Hypothesis of Conflict (Rummel, etc.) Tolerance of Human Beings vs. Human Brains (Minsky, Society of Mind) Conclusion: AIs Will Be Far More Interdependent, Ethical, Empathic to Others, & Stable Than Humans Could Ever Be, By Apparent Design

2004 Accelerating.org Solution: Personality Capture and Transhumanity In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed. Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic. (Brian Arthur, SFI) 2004 Accelerating.org One Transhumanists Creed Teilhard insists that only by cultivating our moral sense of obligation to life can we overcome our present fear and anxiety for the human future. For him the fundamental law of morality is thus to liberate that conscious energy that seeks further to unify the world. This is the energy of human love, an impulse toward

unity, an impulse of mind and heart that manifests itself particularly in the relish a person has for creative tasks undertaken from a sense of duty. Ref: Prof. Joseph MacDonnell, Fairfield University 2004 Accelerating.org Closing Questions Six Questions 1. What would you monitor/scan/measure today to see if we are on an S-Curve or J-Curve of global computational change? 2. What methods would you use to distinguish evolutionary randomness from developmental trajectory 3. Is the tech singularity coming? What? When? Where? How? Why? 4. What are our control options for accelerating and ever more autonomous computation? 5. What are better and worse paths of technology development? 6. How do we promote unity, balance, and accelerating compassion in the transition?

Consider the First and Third World GDP Curves, 1900 to 2000. A Proposition: The third world curve is largely ours to choose. 2004 Accelerating.org Action Items 1. Visit SingularityWatch.com 2. Sign up for our Accelerating Times Newsletter 3. Join Institute for Accelerating Change 4. Attend Accelerating Change (AC2004) Friday-Sunday, Sept. 10-12 at Stanford, Palo Alto, CA. See Accelerating.org 5. Read Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999. 6. Feedback to [email protected] Thank You! 2004 Accelerating.org

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