Project Parametric Estimating

Project Parametric Estimating

Project Parametric Estimating Techniques for developing an Estimating Model That Works Presented by: Creg Schumann & Joseph Kestel This document is proprietary to Project Consulting Group, Inc. and contains confidential information which is solely the property of Project Consulting Group, Inc. This document shall not be used, reproduced, copied, disclosed, and transmitted, in whole or in part, without the express consent of Project Consulting Group. 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Agenda Review Estimating Concepts and Terminology Estimating Methods Estimating Tools Inputs Outputs Developing a Parametric Model MQ & FA (Many Questions & Few Answers) 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Estimating Concepts and Terminology Top Down Start with a high level budget (effort, duration, etc.) Break down to the detail of what can be done Bottom Up Determine what must be built. Roll up the effort to higher level tasks/activities/phases Comparative Compare to similar projects and extrapolate (Niku 6, Primavera, MS Project Central, PM Office, Artemis, etc.)

Expert Expert judgment methods such as Delphi, Wideband Delphi, Round Robin 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Estimating Tools Parametric Model http://www.ispa-cost.org/ Models that define at a low level what must be built/accomplished/etc. and how that low level is translated into an estimate of effort, duration, cost, and schedule. Simplistic example: Five widgets must be produced, the team can produce 2.5 widgets in one day, one widget costs $1,000 to build (labor and material), two widget machines are available, 50% of construction time is added for machine maintenance. 3 days effort (1 for maintenance), 1.5 days duration, $5,000 cost 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Estimating Tools COCOMO Model http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/index.html Takes size of work to be done, applies formulas with risk factors (scaling factors and effort multipliers) to determine person months of effort. Also can be used to determine potential duration and staffing models. Function Point Model http://www.ifpug.org/ Method of providing size as input to other estimation models/tools (SEER/SEM, Cost Xpert, Construx Estimate, Estimate Pro, COCOMO, various Parametric Models, etc.) 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO

CONSULTING J Inputs to Estimating Tools Requirements Data (if available) Corporate Effort Breakout Industry Effort Breakout Risk Factors Effort Multipliers Scaling Factors 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Outputs from Estimating Tools Completed Work Breakdown Structure Updated Requirements Updated Risk Assessment Revised Capability Assessment Initial Resource Cost Estimates (Budget) 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Developing a Parametric Model Our Goal: To develop a (parametric) model that would reduce the time to estimate project effort based on initial high-level project requirements 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. _ ECT _

_GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Developing a Parametric Model Our Objectives: Shorten the process from high-level requirements definition through to WBS generation Estimate-to-Plan in nothing flat! Project Profile WBS Utilize corporate and industry data to drive accuracy of the model Keep it simple! Users should be able to easily understand it and adjust it! 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Developing a Parametric Model Identify Parametric Opportunity Design Design a Preliminary Parametric Model Calibrate Calibrate and Validate the Model Incorporate Incorporate With Organizational Policies and Processes Maintain Maintain and Improve the Model Identify 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING

J Identify Parametric Opportunity Where is Parametric Estimation Applicable? Where processes are reliable and repeatable Where sufficient historical data exists to draw parametric relationships Where sufficient industry data exists to draw parametric relationships Where an organization is large enough to be able to take frequent advantage of such a model and promote maintenance of the model 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain Design a Parametric Model Our Process: Tie high-level requirements definition as input to estimating model Project Profile Estimating Model WBS Assure that inputs are base on your business practices and nomenclature Assure that input criteria are understood and well documented 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP

PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain Design a Parametric Model The Project Profile: Identify the What What are some typical inputs for your industry? Software Development Financial Services Retail Construction Utility/Telecom Government Please document inputs on the Breakout Session sheets 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain Design a Parametric Model Our Project Profile: 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design

Calibrate Design a Parametric Model Incorporate Maintain List as detailed as you can the various areas of the application you are estimating. If you are unable to TTS get to a very detailed level, use budgeting (10 avg. Pyramid Pyramid Petecomplex reports) and place that description in your project proposal. Use the tables to the right to judge complexity (low, avg., high). Detail Counting Area Data Entry Low Screens Insert Row(s) Above This Holder Data Entry Totals Reports Average Insert Row(s) Above This Holder Reports Totals Insert Row(s) Above This Holder Query Totals High Functional Area Data Entry 8 2 2 Tables Referenced 1-4 Data Elements 5-15 Data Elements 0 0

0 0-1 Low Low 0 0 0 2 Low Average 0 0 0 3+ Average High 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 None 8 2 2 Low Reports Query Screens Complexity Key Complexity Average High Functional Area Reports 4 6 1 Tables Referenced 1-5 Data Elements 6-19 Data Elements 0 0 0 0-1 Low Low 0 0 0 2-3

Low Average 0 0 0 4+ Average High 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 None 4 6 1 Low Average High Functional Area 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 None 0 0 0 Queries LOW: One or two columns, Simple data transformations Simple data transformations AVG:

Multiple columns with sub-totals Multiple data-element transformations HIGH: Multiple and intricate data-element transformations Multiple and complex file (table) references 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain Design a Parametric Model Our Process: Build the Bridge Create an estimating model that will feed tasks within the standardized WBS template Project Profile Estimating Model WBS Establish relationships between estimate inputs and each deliverables-based task within your high-level WBS Many-to-One relationships One-to-One relationships 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design

Calibrate Incorporate Maintain Design a Parametric Model Our Process: Build the Bridge Account for the variables: Project Profile Estimating Model WBS Establish initial base hours or percentages of grouped hours to accomplish individual tasks 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain Design a Parametric Model Our Estimating Model: 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Incorporate

Maintain 01/28/20 Design a Parametric Model AB FP Estimate 1 2 3 4 Data Entry Forms 5 Low 6 Avg 7 High 8 Total 9 10 Reports 11 Low 12 Avg 13 High 14 Total 15 16 Tables (Logical) 17 Low 18 Avg 19 High 20 Total 21 22 Import/Export Files 23 Low 24 Avg 25 High 26 Total 27 28 Query Screens 29 Low 30 Avg 31 High 32 Total 33 34 Objects 35 Low 36 Avg 37 High 38 Total 39 40 Total UA/FP 41 VAF: AC AD Qty

AE Factor 8 2 2 12 Qty UA-FP 3 4 6 Factor 4 6 1 11 Qty Factor Qty Factor 0 0 0 0 Qty Factor Qty 16 30 7 53 A-FP Hrs. 16.64 31.2 7.28 55.12 187.23 351.05 81.91 620.19

147 40 0 187 A-FP Hrs. 152.88 41.6 0 194.48 1720.15 468.07 0.00 2188.22 A-FP 0 0 0 0 UA-FP 3 4 6 Factor 0 0 0 0 280.84 93.61 140.42 514.88 UA-FP 5 7 10 0 0 0 0 A-FP Hrs. 24.96 8.32 12.48

45.76 UA-FP 7 10 15 A-FP 284 295.36 Est. Cost $14,603.74 $4,867.91 $7,301.87 $26,773.53 52 52 52 Est. Cost $9,735.83 $18,254.68 $4,259.42 $32,249.93 52 52 52 Est. Cost $89,447.91 $24,339.57 $0.00 $113,787.48 Rate Est. Cost 52 52 52 Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Hrs. 0 0

0 0 52 52 52 Rate Hrs. A-FP AI Est. Cost $172,810.94 Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 AH Rate Hrs. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 UA-FP 4 5 7 AG

Hours 3323.29 24 8 12 44 UA-FP 4 5 7 21 4 0 25 AF Est. Cost 52 52 52 Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Est. Cost 52 52 52 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1.04 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify

_ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain Design a Parametric Model Our Process: Create the Plan Utilize and update corporate WBS template Adjust for time reporting and earned value calculations (Develop a High-Level Stage/Activity WBS that eliminates confusing detail!) Project Profile Estimating Model WBS Make the WBS deliverables-based! Manage the details in a detailed WBS outside of this WBS as a detailed checklist or task-list This High-Level WBS should only be used for time reporting and earned value calculations 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design a Parametric Model Our WBS: 01/28/20

Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Design a Parametric Model Incorporate Maintain Project Estimate Summary Size Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic FP/PM Calc Estimated Size (FP) 142 284 568 284 Equivalent KSLOC 5.37 10.74 21.47 10.74 Effort Person Months Effort Hours of Effort 9.60

19.97 41.55 22.36 1708.62 3195.47 5485.01 3577.95 7.39 9.27 11.63 9.60 1.30 2.15 3.57 2.33 Schedule Duration (Months) Staff Average Staff Productivity Calculated FP/PM Calculated FP/Hr Staff Month 14.8 14.2 13.7 12.7 0.0831 0.0889 0.1036 0.0794

178 160 132 160 Cost Blended Rate of $52 $ 88,848.32 $ 166,164.36 $ 285,220.37 $ 186,053.54 Phase Estimate Select Lifecycle: Waterfall Select Model: Most Likely 1 2 Effort (Hours) Percent Proposal Percent Amount 7% 223.68 7% 0.65

Analysis and Design 17% 543.23 20% 1.85 Construction 45% 1437.96 50% 4.63 Test Execution 19% 607.14 20% 1.85 0.28 Implementation 01/28/20 Schedule (Months) Amount 12% 383.46 3% 100% 3195.47 100% 9.27 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain Calibrate and Validate the Model Our Process: Establish and readjust the relationships between: Industry Data Project Profile Corporate Data Estimating Model WBS Conduct variance analysis and adjust the estimating tool as necessary Test and revise as new projects are conducted and as data is gathered 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain Incorporate into Organization

Our Process: Establish Schedule Based on duration calculations as well as forward and backward paths, critical paths, and dependences, etc. Establish Cost Based on effort estimates (hours only) by generalize resource listing and the percentage of work they will be expected to perform Include blended rates (or specific rates if necessary) based on groupings of expertise/dollars Establish Staffing Models Based on duration and loading model calculations Make it real by looking at skill sets, dependencies, and availability 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Design Calibrate Incorporate Maintain Incorporate Into Organization Our Process: Create instructional documentation that directs repeatable and reliable use when: Completing the Project Profile Adjusting the Estimating Model components Tailoring the WBS Roll-out and train when and where necessary 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Identify _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J

Design Calibrate Maintain Incorporate Maintain Our Process: Add risk weighting factors in the future to account for this element within estimating model Continue to test and revise as new projects are conducted and data is gathered Report variance (estimates-to-actuals) on: Duration Effort Cost Size Staffing 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved. _ ECT _ _GROUP PRO CONSULTING J Many Questions / Few Answers 01/28/20 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

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