Extrema vgmstare? Populism i Norden Mariehamn 20150803 Ann-Cathrine

Extrema vgmstare? Populism i Norden Mariehamn 20150803 Ann-Cathrine

Extrema vgmstare? Populism i Norden Mariehamn 20150803 Ann-Cathrine Jungar Sdertrns hgskola Vljarmssiga framgngar Danmark 25 20 FrP DF % of votes % of votes 15 10 5 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Sverige 14 12 10 Finland 25 20 15 8 6 13 0 % of votes % of votes Norge 20 18 16

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 73 78 83 8 8 93 98 03 08 19 19 19 19 19 19 2 0 2 0 6.73 10 5.7 4 5 2 0 0 1991 19 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 9.7 4.05 66 9 70 974 9 78 9 82 9 86 990 9 94 9 98 0 02 0 06 0 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Mjliga frklaringar Omvrldsfrndringar

Globalisering, europeisering, osv Politiska frndringar De politiska skillnaderna (soc-ekonomisk) minskat Identitetspolitik Efterfrgan Invandring en viktigare frga (och EU) Utbud Politiska partier med stabil organisation och resurser Inflytande och isolering Regeringspartier (Norge och Finland) Stdparti (Danmark) Isolerat paria-party (Sverigedemokraterna) som r tungan p vgen efter valet 2014. Saliency of immigration issue over time: PRR parties 18 16 14 12 10 Average percentage (manifesto content) 8 6 FrP/DF FrP (NO) SD SMP/PS 4 2 0 83 86 89 92 95 98 02 05 08 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Year Source: CMP Saliency of immigration issue over time: by country excluding PRR parties 9 8 7

6 Average percentage (manifesto content) 5 4 3 DK NO SE FI 2 1 0 83 86 89 92 95 98 02 05 08 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Year Source: CMP Tre populistiska vgor i Norden Populistiska hgerradikala partier Populism Anti-etablissemangsretorik och ett sammanhllet folk en ideologi som uppfattar samhllet som ytterst uppdelat i tv homogena och sinsemellan antagonistiska grupper det rena folket kontra den korrumperade eliten och som menar att politiken ska uttrycka folkets volont generale eller allmnviljan (Mudde) Nativism Nationalism, det egna folket och den egna kulturen (under hot) Invandringskritik Vlfrdschauvinism Auktoritarianism Lag och ordning, traditionella familjevrderingar Konvergens? Det nordiska partisystemet 10 9.4 8.2 8.25

LIBERAL-AUTHORITARIAN 8.1 7.5 7.3 7 6.4 6.7 5.9 6.1 5.21 5 Socialist Social democrat Green Liberal Christian Agrarian Conservative Populist radical right 5.3 5 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.27 4.1 4.21 3.69 3.4 3.14 2.4

3.7 2.85 2.1 2.1 1.5 0 0 5 10 Economic LEFT-RIGHT Source: CHES 2010 Policy positions Dimension DF PS FrP SD Economic policy: Taxes vs. Spending Economic policy: Deregulation Privatization Economic right-wing index Social/moral policy Criminal justice Civil liberties Gender equality Authoritarianism index Immigration National identity Nationalism Nationalism index EU: Membership EU: Enlargement EU: Strengthening EU: Authority Euro-scepticism index Anti-establishment 4,5

5,3 7,2 5,7 5,0 9,2 8,2* 5,0* 6,9 9,7 9,5 9,5 9,6 8,8 9,3 9,5 9,0 9,2 7,0 2,3 2,5 4,2 3,0 9,8 8,0 8,0 6,7* 8,1 9,0 9,7 9,5 9,4 9,0 8,3 10 9,7 9,3 9,0 5,0* 8,0 6,2* 6,4 6,3 9,0 6,8* 6,2* 7,1 9,2 7,0

7,0 7,7 5,3 6,0 7,0 6,6 6,2 7,7 5,0 4,2 4,5 4,6 8,5 9,0 7,8 6,2 7,9 9,5 9,5 9,7 9,6 8,7 8,7 9,7 9,2 9,1 8,8 Source: Nordic Populism Expert Survey 2011 * St. dev. among experts > 2.0 LIB ERA L-AU THO R ITA RIAN DENMARK 10 0 0 ECONOMIC LEFT-RIGHT 10 Source: CHES 2010 LIB ER AL-A U THO RITA R IAN

NORWAY 10 0 0 ECONOMIC LEFT-RIGHT 10 Source: CHES 2010 LIB ER AL-AU THO RITAR IAN SWEDEN 10 0 0 ECONOMIC LEFT-RIGHT 10 Source: CHES 2010 LIB ERA L-AU THO R ITA RIAN FINLAND 10 0 0 ECONOMIC LEFT-RIGHT 10 Source: CHES 2010 Vilka r vljarna?

Manspartier Smstad eller landsbygd I mindre grad hgskoleutbildad Anstlld i privat sektor Ej hskoleutbildad Lgt politiskt frtroende Invandringsmotstnd Demographic statistics (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 DF FrP SD PS 20 10 0 g ra e Av e e ag r ea y ( s) M al e rs

te o v Hi ti ca u ed r e gh on Em ed oy l p in ic bl u p r to c se M ua an e rk o lw ISC ( r ) 88

O em Un ed y o pl 5 st a l ar ye s M em be ra ft o r de n io n u Source: ESS 2010 Demographic statistics Denmark (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 DF SD

V 20 10 0 g ra e Av e e ag ea (y ) rs M al e rs te o v H r he g i ti ca u ed on Em ed oy l

p in i bl u p r to c e cs M ua an e rk o lw ISC ( r ) 88 O em Un d ye o pl 5 st a l ar ye s

M em be ra ft o r de n io n u Source: ESS 2010 Demographic statistics Norway (%) 70 60 50 40 30 FrP AP H 20 10 0 g ra e Av e e ag ea (y )

rs M al e rs te o v Hi ti ca u ed r e gh on Em ed oy l p in i bl u p r to c e cs M ua an e rk

o lw ISC ( r ) 88 O em Un d ye o pl 5 st a l ar ye s M em ra ft o r be de n io n u Source: ESS 2010 Demographic statistics Sweden (%)

70 60 50 40 30 SD S M 20 10 0 g ra e Av e e ag ea (y ) rs M al e rs te o v H r he g i ti ca u ed

on Em ed oy l p in i bl u p r to c e cs M ua an e rk o lw ISC ( r ) 88 O em Un d ye o pl 5 st

a l ar ye s M em be ra ft o r de n io n u Source: ESS 2010 Demographic statistics Finland (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 PS SDP KOK 20 10 0 g ra e Av e

e ag ea (y ) rs M al e rs te o v Hi ti ca u ed r e gh on Em ed oy l p in i bl u p r to c e cs

M ua an e rk o lw ISC ( r ) 88 O em Un d ye o pl 5 st a l ar ye s M em ra ft o r be de n

io n u Source: ESS 2010 Left-right movements over time: Sweden Left-right 50 0 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 S MP V M FP C KD -50 Source: CMP Left-right movements over time: Finland Left-right 50 0 1995 1999 2003 2007

2011 SDP VIHR VAS KOK PS KESK KD SFP -50 Source: CMP Left-right movements over time: Norway Left-right 50 0 1989 1993 1997 2001 2009 AP SP SV H FrP V KrF -50 Source: CMP Left-right movements over time: Denmark Left-right 50

0 1998 2001 2005 2007 2011 SD SF EL V DF RV KF -50 Source: CMP Party-voter policy congruence (immigration) Voter position 8 7.8 7 6 5.96 5.8 DK FI SE NL FR HU 5 4

3 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Party position Source: CHES 2010/ESS 2010 Party-voter policy congruence (EU) 8 Voter position 7.53 7 6.29 6 5.82 DK FI SE NL FR

HU 5 4 3 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Party position Source: CHES 2010/ESS 2010

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