Snowmass Presentation - Jussieu

Snowmass Presentation - Jussieu

Assessing Potential Impacts and Responses to Sea-level Rise Robert J. Nicholls School of Civil Engineering and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of Southampton, UK Workshop on Understanding Sea Level Rise and Variability 6 to 9 June 2006 UNESCO, Paris PLAN The Coast at the turn of the 21st century Impacts and Responses to Sea-Level Rise Assessment Needs Examples Concluding Remarks The Coast at the turn of the 21st century Elevation and population density maps for Southeast Asia

Coastal Population vs. Distance and Elevation Global estimates for 1990 (Small and Nicholls, 2003) Coastal Megacities (>8 million people) UN Forecast for 2010 Tianjin Dhaka Istanbul New York Seoul Osaka Tokyo Shanghai Los Angeles

Manila Lagos Lima Buenos Aires Bangkok Bombay Karachi Madras Jakarta Rio de Janeiro Calcutta Taken from Nicholls (1995) NIGHT LIGHTS AND POP. DENSITY Night lights Population density (GPW2)

Subsidence in Bangkok Subsidence bowl Subsiding Coastal Megacities (during the 20th Century) Tianjin (2 m) Dhaka Istanbul New York Los Angeles Seoul Osaka (3 m) Tokyo (5 m) Shanghai (3 m) Manila

Lagos Lima Buenos Aires Bangkok (2 m) Bombay Karachi Madras Jakarta Rio de Janeiro Calcutta Coastal Ecosystems KEY: mangroves, o saltmarsh, x coral reefs Impacts and Responses to Sea-Level Rise Co-Evolving Coastal System SENSITIVITY

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY EXPOSURE NATURAL SYSTEM MULTIPLE STRESSES1 BOUNDARY CONDITIONS SENSITIVITY EXPOSURE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM External stresses are scale-dependent and include climate change and global-mean sea-lev

Relative Sea-Level Rise Major Effects And Selected Responses NATURAL SYSTEM EFFECTS 1. Inundation, flood and storm damage a. Surge (sea) SELECTED ADAPTATIONS Dikes/surge barriers, Building codes/floodwise buildings, Land use planning/hazard delineation. 2. Wetland loss (and change)

Land use planning, Managed realignment/ forbid hard defences, Nourishment/ sediment management. 3. Erosion (direct and indirect morphological change) Coast defences, Nourishment, Building setbacks. 4. Saltwater Intrusion

Saltwater intrusion barriers, Change water abstraction, Freshwater injection. Upgrade drainage systems, Polders, Change land use, Land use planning/hazard delineation. b. Backwater effect (river) a. Surface Waters b. Groundwater 5. Rising water tables/ impeded drainage

North Sea Storm Surge 31 January/1 February 1953 The Thames Barrier RESPONDING TO COASTAL HAZARDS Planned Retreat Accommodation Protect - soft - hard ADAPTATION A Continuous Process Mitigation Climate Climate variability

change Impacts Information, Planning, Implemen - Monitoring, Awareness Design tation Evaluation Existing management practices

Other Policy stresses criteria Coastal development objectives Adaptation Relative Sea-Level Rise Major Effects And Selected Responses NATURAL SYSTEM EFFECTS 1. Inundation, flood and storm damage a. Surge (sea)

SELECTED ADAPTATIONS Dikes/surge barriers, Building codes/floodwise buildings, Land use planning/hazard delineation. 2. Wetland loss (and change) Land use planning, Managed realignment/ forbid hard defences, Nourishment/ sediment management. 3. Erosion (direct and indirect morphological change)

Coast defences, Nourishment, Building setbacks. 4. Saltwater Intrusion Saltwater intrusion barriers, Change water abstraction, Freshwater injection.

Upgrade drainage systems, Polders, Change land use, Land use planning/hazard delineation. b. Backwater effect (river) a. Surface Waters b. Groundwater 5. Rising water tables/ impeded drainage The Thames Barrier Accommodation on the Isle of Wight raising new homes to EA elevation commendations Assessment Needs Methods Top/Down

Scale Relevant Policies Bottom/Up GLOBAL Integrated Models and Assessments Impact and Adaptation Assessments Greenhouse Gas Emissions REGIONAL Regional

Co-operation NATIONAL/ LOCAL Coastal Management Examples Exposure Analysis (global) Impact Analysis (global) Impact Analysis (national) Exposed Population vs. Sea-Level Rise (by country in 1995 and assuming no adaptation) Number of Countries 150 10% 25% 50%

100% 100 50 0 0 5 10 15 Sea-Level Rise (m) 20 25 Exposed Population vs. Sea-Level Rise (by country in 1995 and assuming no adaptation)

% Countries Affected 100 10% 25% 50% 100% 75 50 25 0 0 5 10 15

Sea-Level Rise (m ) 20 25 Global Flood Impact Methodology Global Sea-level Rise Scenarios Subsidence Storm Surge Flood Curves Relative Sea-Level Rise Scenarios Coastal Topography Raised Flood Levels Population

Density Size of Flood Hazard Zones Protection Status (1in 10, 1 in100, etc.) People in the Hazard Zone (EXPOSURE) Average Annual People Flooded, People to Respond (RISK) Global Flood Impact Methodology Global Sea-level Rise Scenarios Subsidence

Storm Surge Flood Curves Relative Sea-Level Rise Scenarios Coastal Topography Raised Flood Levels Population Density Size of Flood Hazard Zones Protection Status (1in 10, 1 in100, etc.) People in the Hazard Zone

(EXPOSURE) Average Annual People Flooded, People to Respond (RISK) Sea-Level Rise across Climate Sensitivity Unmitigated (IS92a) and Stabilisation Scenarios (S750 and S550) (Nicholls and Lowe, 2004) 150 IS92a S750 S550 Sea level (cm) High Climate Sensitivity 100

Mid Climate Sensitivity 50 Low Climate Sensitivity 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Tim e 2150

IS92a S750 S550 IS92a S750 S550 2200 Flooding (Nicholls and Lowe, 2004) Additional People Flooded (millions/year) in an IS92a World 200 Additional People Flooded 40 People Flooded (a) Baseline: No global sea-level rise 20

0 1990 2020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s S550 S750 IS92a 100 0 2020s

2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s 600 Additional People Flooded 40 Additional People Flooded (c) Mid climate sensitivity (HadCM2) (b) Low climate sensitivity S550 S750

IS92a 20 0 2020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s (d) High climate sensitivity S550 S750 IS92a 400

200 0 2020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s Flooded Population Sea-Level Rise and Protection Response SRES scenarios 2080s Fast Track (Nicholls and Lowe, 2006) 1000 People (millions/year) Constant Protection (in 1990) A1/B1 Constant Protection (in 1990) A2

100 Constant Protection (in 1990) B2 Evolving Protection (with GDP/capita) A1FI CP Evolving Protection (with GDP/capita) A2 10 Evolving Protection (with GDP/capita) B2 Enhanced Protection A1FI EvP Enhanced Protection A2 EnP 1

Enhanced Protection B2 0 10 20 Sea-level rise (cm) 30 40 Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Study -- Coastal Drivers in OST Foresight Study Based on a source-pathway-receptor framework: Relative sea-level rise (source). Surges (source). Waves (source). Coastal morphology and sediment supply (pathway).

Plus many other drivers population, GDP, etc. Geological Observations Of Uplift/Subsidence (from Shennan and Horton, 2002) Subsidence Uplift Uncertainty in Regional Sea-Level Change 1990 to 2080s IPCC Third Assessment Report 0 0.1 0.2 0.3

0.4 0.5 0.6 m Change in 50 year event from a storm surge model for 2080s medium-high emissions and 50 cm SLR dley Centre for Climate Change Research metres Foresight e Flood Risks os: Comparative Risk pected Annual bility of Flooding

Flooding and coastal areas (From Foresight Study) Present Day 2002 Probability of Inundation to a depth greater than 0.0m Negligible Low Medium High Very High Outside IFP World M arkets 2050's World M arkets 2080's Negligible Increase Low Increase Medium Increase High Increase Negligible Increase Low Increase

Medium Increase High Increase Decrease Decrease Outside IFP Outside IFP arisons represent the etween Present Day 2002 oresight Future Scenarios National Enterprise 2 080's Local Stewardship 2080's Global Respon sibility 2080's Negligible Increase Low Increase

Medium Increase High Increase Negligible Increase Low Increase Medium Increase High I ncrease Negligible Increase Low Increase Medium Increase High I ncr ease Decrease Decrease Decrease Outside IFP Outside IFP

Outside IFP Concluding Thoughts The coast is dynamic experiencing profound and diverse change; Rising sea levels at all scales are an important component of this change; Rising sea levels are associated with significant risks, requiring long-term strategic responses; Small islands and deltas are most threatened; Adaptation has the potential to manage most expected challenges; There is an ongoing research need to underpin these needs o o

long-term sea-level rise (decades/centuries) extreme events (today and tomorrow) Sample DIVA Outputs Estimated People Flooded (per year) by surges in 2000 Assessing Potential Impacts and Responses to Sea-level Rise Robert J. Nicholls School of Civil Engineering and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of Southampton, UK Workshop on Understanding Sea Level Rise and Variability 6 to 9 June 2006 UNESCO, Paris

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