Statistics of International Migration in The Cis Countries
STATISTICS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN THE CIS COUNTRIES Olga Chudinovskikh Moscow State Lomonosov University 1 Overview 1. CIS-1991-2006: 15 years of collecting statistics under new conditions 2. Functions and responsibilities of administrative and national statistical bodies in migration statistics collection 3. Towards population registers- a better future or new problems? 4. Concluding remarks: problems and possible solutions 2 a number of countries (including major countries , such as the former USSR) have no statistics whatsoever.. they are mostly low-immigration countries (Tapinos George. Can one really talk of the globalization of migration flows? In: Globalization, migration and development. OECD, 2000.) 3 CIS 1991-2006 Data collection in transformation 12 more countries with incomparable statistics New institutes and bodies, responsible for new flows regulation and new data collection. Redistribution of responsibilities (problems of interaction) Necessity in new systems of data collection to register and measure new trends in international migration processes (refugees, forced migrants, labour migrants, new foreigners (former compatriots ) New legislation: freedom for move, international migration, status of foreigners, citizenship, refugees, labour migration, registration and data collection (Laws ans derivative acts) Revision of previous system of population registration Georgia, Moldova, other countries. Less control, 2 types of registration: place of stay or residence (Armeina + factual residence). Technical progress new possibilities in data collection and processing (background for population registers establishment) Access to data that were not available earlier Changes in Censuses-2000 questionnaire
Targeted sample surveys (in some of the CIS countries) to investigate new problems 4 Migration related data in the CIS countries NSI and administrative sources < 1991 > 1991 Current statistics of flows (based on registration) Census Households and labour force surveys Statistics of refugees Labour migration statistics - Migration cards statistics (Tajikistan, Moldova, Ukraine, RF, Belarus) - Border statistics Statistics of foreign students Residence permits Administrative registration of temporary and permanent migrants
Citizenship acquisition Visa statistics (MFA and MOI) etc. 5 Data collected by National Statistical Institutes: similarities and peculiarities, common background different future Current (annual) statistics of flows (Except Georgia and Moldova) Similar paper carriers received from police or Min. of Justice agencies Different criterion of migrant identification Similar low coverage and quality Censuses programs difference in migration related issuesspecial questions to measure labour out-migration, forced migration, etc . Migrant stock definitions: if the foreign born criteria works? Surveys (households, labour force Especially Tajikistan, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia) Other data (Received from administrative authorities for processing and/or publication- refugees, labour migrants, etc.) 6 Principles of current migration statistics formation in the NSIs (except Georgia and Moldova) In the USSR since 1930-ies till 1991 - one type of population registration (in a place of residence) time criteria: 45 days for the USSR citizens, 90 days for foreigners: primary statisitcsl forms are to be filled in and forwarded to regional departments of Central statistical division . 2 types of forms arrivals and departures POLICE
(or ministry of justice agencies in some of the CIS countries) NSI N 12 Now forms are collected for migrants registered in a place of residence, but as a rule there is no time criteria (except Kazakhstan and Ukraine 6 months) "" ( ) N 12 . "" ( ) 1. 2. . 3. 4. "__"()________ () () 1. N 12 5. ____________________________________
Some definitions of place of residence and criteria used for statistics collection (may differ for nationals and foreigners) Importance of details. Ukraine Both nationals and foreigners place of residence is an administrative territorial unit where a person lives for 6 months and more within a year. (Foreigners have to get a residence permit (permanent or temporary)). One more definition Place of residence is a place where a person lives permanently or predominantly as an owner or under the terms of tenancy contract , etc. (house, flat, hostel, sheltered housing etc.) Kazakhstan For nationals place of residence is not defined (in available sources), but as a rule implies stay for 6 months and more. For foreigners registration in a place of residence implies stay for more than 6 months. Moldova Place of permanent residence is a place where a person lives permanently. As a rule 6 months criteria is applied. (Temporary residents are registered in MOI) + immigrant- a foreigner who got the right for permanent or temporary residence in Rep. of Moldova; emigrant citizen of RM who leaves abroad for permanent or temporary residence 2003 immigrants - 1620, emigrants- 7376 (Dem. Yearbook) Belarus Both for nationals and foreigners with residence permits- Place of residence is a place where a person lives permanently or predominantly as an owner or under the terms of tenancy contract , etc. (house, flat, hostel, sheltered housing etc.) Kyrgyzstan Place of permanent residence is a place where a person lives permanently. Russian Federation Nationals: place of residence a place where a person permanently of usually resides being an owner, or under the condition of tenancy contract, etc. (house, flat, hostel, sheltered housing etc.) Foreigners: place of residence of a foreigner or a stateless person in the RF is a dwelling 10 space at the address where the person is registered according to the Law Case of the RF1995: New rules of RF citizens registration and collection of statistics of migration (both internal and international) Registration in a place of residence: Primary statistical from to be filled in N 12 "" ( ) N 12 . ""
11. 12. - 1; - 2; , - 3; - - 4; - - 5; - 6; () - - 7; , - 8; ()________________ - 9 11 Arrivals in and departures from the Russian Federation (including migration to and from the former USSR republics). 1971-2005, persons. Rosstat data. Changes in rules of data collection the basic reason for inflow decline Arrivals in and departures from the Russian Federation (including migration to and from the former USSR republics). 1971-2004, persons. Rosstat data. 1400000 Changes in rules of registration and data collection (1) 1200000 Decay of the USSR 1000000 Changes in rules of registration and data collection 800000 600000 (2) (3) 400000 Arrivals in RF*
1974 1973 1972 0 1971 200000 12 Arrivals of students from abroad: comparison of Rosstat and Ministry of education data 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Entries to professional secondary and higher schools of RF. Residents of foreign counrties (Ministry of education data) International migration for education. Arrivals (Rosstat data) 13 Immigration to the RF (citizenship composition) Rosstat data. Data on foreigners: result of inaccuracy in data collection (according to the law no data on foreigners should be collected for Rosstat) 120 100 80 Nationals 60 90,1 84,2 89,2 91,8
9,9 15,8 10,8 8,2 2002 2003 2004 2005 Foreigners 40 20 0 14 Residence permits issued by the RF migration service and international migrants observed by Rosstat. Uncertainty of methodology and criteria. 162646 14584 15995 2005 Arrivals nationals (Rosstat) 170268 106323 Arrivals -foreigners (Rosstat) 12834 2004 73160 246332 Permanent residence permits 108767 20377 2003 253096 13131 0 100000 200000
Temporary residence permits 300000 15 Coverage of current statistics of flows: inaccuracy in registration and deregistration No strict control over / or strong stimulus for both Registration in better than deregistration Deregistration : stimuli based on necessity to sell the dwelling (Practice in administrative sources a person is deregistered by registration period expiry) Consulates partially collect information about emigrants 16 Deregistration in the country of origin requirement in 29 selected countries (RF MFA information) 8- need, 21-does not need Needed Not obligatory 1.Armenia 2.Belarus 3.Kazakhstan 4.Kyrgyzstan 5.Tajikistan 6.Turkmenistan 7.Uzbekistan 8.Spain 1.Australia 2.Azerbaijan 3.Bulgaria 4.Canada 5.China 6.Estonia 7.Finland 8.Georgia 9.Germany 10.Greece 11.India 12.Italy 13.Latvia 14.Lithuania 15.New Zealand 16.Norway 17.Poland 18.Sweden 19.The Netherlands 20.United Kingdom 21.USA 17 Comparison of data on international migration between RF and selected CIS countries. 2005, CIS Statistics Committee data
12640 Ukraine Ukraine 20071 Tadjikistan 434 846 Moldova 786 896 12437 15022 Kazakhstan 1274 1158 Azerbaijan 0 18969 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Country Data on arrivals RF data on departures Tadjikistan 4717 5804 Moldova 6569 3310 Kazakhstan 30760 38498 51945 4600 2495 Azerbaijan 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Country Data on departures RF data on arivals 18 Surveys: To measure processes that could not be measured with the help of the other sources Labour force and employment (some of the CIS countries conduct such surveys, but not all include migration related questions) Households (in all the countries,
but not all include migration related questions into the program. Moldova, Armenia, Tajikistan conduct targeted migration surveys) At the borders (Tajikistan, Georgia) 19 Administrative and other sources (Is it a possible alternative to poor NSI-s data?) Data collected at the borders (incorrect interpretation) Work permits /or employed foreign labour force . (visible part of an iceberg) Visa : issued abroad, in the country (not available) Residence permits (temporary, permanent) (double count if a year of status acquisition is not defined) Data on citizenship acquisition (hardly available) Registration of population in the place of stay or residence (procedures rather than persons) 20 Statistics collected at the borders: problems of interpretation 1) 2) Main problem underestimation of foreigners that do not need visa travel by train (no immediate access to the database) Lack of regular or available information tempts to use any source that is available Unprofessional interpretation or political considerations? Ukrainian and RF authorities interpretations of the border statistics: residual between entries and exits is considered to be illegal net migration, when multiplied by several years shows hundreds of thousand or even millions of illegal migrants stock. Consequences increase in xenophobia and social instability Migration cards good alternative or temporary (desperate) remedy? (RF, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Tajikistan, Moldova, Belarus ) 21 Ukrainian and RF authorities interpretations of the border statistics: residual between entries and exits is considered to be illegal net migration Ukraine In 20022006 there were more than 34 000 000 entries of foreigners to Ukraine
Did not leave from Ukrainian territory 123 140 from the countries-main suppliers of irregular migrants : (web-site of Migration affairs Committee ) Russian Federation Border service data 2001 Entri es 21,6 2002 23,3 2003 22,5 2004 2001 2005 2005 22,1 22,2 111, 7 Exits 18,7 20,9 20,6 20,9 20,8 101, 9 resid ual 2,9 2,4 1,9 1,2 1,4 9,8
22 Migration cards (RF and Kazakhstan patterns) 23 Administrative data on registration of the RF nationals in the place of residence - Registration of procedures rather than individuals . Blue curve shows registration of new passports during the passport change campaign in 2001-2003, although the title of the table is as follows ;Number of registrations of place of residence 30000 25453 25000 () 23135 20000 () 19484 15000 12290 10709 10281 10965 10000 10619 7293 7465 5000 0 7090 2948 3153 7337 6823 7056 3590 6994 7356 2662
2745 12706 2202 2334 2117 2168 ( , ) ( , ) 24 Consequences of poor quality or lack in availability of statistics: Impossibility to measure basic parameters of national economies: Labour force Employment GNDP National accounts Without reliable statistics of international migration policy-makers do not have way marks for adequate decisions in the sphere of migration policy Use of defective statistics makes migration policy risky, costly and inefficient Society does not have adequate information and public opinion may not correspond with real processes 25 Population registers in CIS: great opportunities for population statistics or new problems? From paper forms and catalogues - towards e-data bases and from hand work towards new technologies: basic challenges Staff qualification Equipment maintenance (case of RF) Individual data protection Limited number of variables Centralized or decentralized? Besides Moldova other countries also have some experience in DB creation passport change campaign in RF and Ukraine, Foreign population Data bank in RF, etc. 26
Variables to be collected in the RF foreign population register 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Full name Date and place of birth Sex Citizenship Purpose of arrival Profession Period of intended stay Previous registration of a place of residence (address and date of reg. and deregistration) Previous registration of a place of stay (address and date of reg. and deregistration) Reference persons data in the RF (parents, adopters, guardians) Deportation data (if there was) Decision on deportation Info on law violence in the RF Data and place of death in the RF Reason for registration 27 Processing and publication: sharing of responsibilities between administrative bodies and NSI s Variety of data to be published Access free or chargeable, to individuals or legal entities, etc. National statistical institutes are more likely to publish data that administrative authorities are No data on residence permits, visas, citizenship acquisition etc. No or poor information in the web-sites of NSI s and Immigration authorities (even if they have a web-site) 28 Foreign citizens registration data bank (Planned to be created by January 2006), Responsible authority Federal Migration service Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data) 1. Migration cards information on arrivals and departures of foreigners 2. Data on refugees and asylum seekers 3. Labour migrants data (work permits data) Stage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data) 4. Residence permits, temporary residence permits and stay permits
5. Information on crimes committed against foreigners and by foreigners Stage 3 (other ministries data) 6. Federal border service data 7. Visas and invitations statistics 8. Customs Committee data 9. Ministry of taxes data 10. Other ministries and authorities data on foreigners Stage 4 Information exchange and distribution (rules are not defined) 29 Concluding remarks1: Management: (almost everywhere) frequent redistribution of responsibilities and reshuffle of administrative authorities inevitably causes problems in capacity building (new staff to be trained, data bases to be shared, etc.) Quality: not ideal almost everywhere, especially data on flows Availability: better access to NSI s data problematic to administrative data Underdevelopment of certain tools of data collection (registration - surveys) Data exchange if only IOM is interested in the process? ! All recommendations are addressed to a National Statistical Institute, but as a rule other bodies are decision makers in the sphere of registration and data collection Coordination in statistics harmonization is it necessary, possible and who could be a coordinator? 30 Concluding remarks 2: In spite of obvious problems and a certain centrifugal trends in international policies in the CIS countries, there are still strong economic considerations to manage migration process and labour market development in the area of the CIS countries together; It is one more argument to revise national systems of international migration statistics collection, to discuss common problems and to look for solutions that could be advantageous for everybody. 31 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION 32 Additional information 33 Foreign born population in selected CIS countries
/ period of migration (before the break-up of the USSR migration occurred within the same country) 398,6 864,4 Belarus 779,0 4377,4 Ukraine 0,0 1000,0 2000,0 3000,0 Before the decay of the USSR 4000,0 5000,0 After the decay 6000,0 34 Main categories for migrant stock identification in selected CIS countries. Censuses 2000 round data Population (pers.) Born in the country Born out of the countr y Abs. 3213001 2927306 285695 3185455 27546 % 100,00%
94.6% 99.6% 0.4% Armenia Ukraine Belarus Moldova 131608720 181514 5.4% Nationals Foreigners and statel ess No answer abou t citize nship 35  including 580 persons that did not specify place of birth Visa statistics : availability is the basic problem Two ways of application for visa (as a rule) MFA and MOI MFA data not available MOI data better availability (application and registration of foreigners) Basic problem underestimation of migrants that do not need visa (purposes for move asked in migration cards do not coincide with types of visa) - 36 Labour migration data Overall problem considerable underestimation of in and outflows (and stocks as well ) Double citizenship- problems of labour migration underestimation Irregular component in foreign workers stock is possibly 5-10 times more numerous (RF- quota for 2007 6000000 workers (that do not need visa), >300000 that need visa) Number of emigrant-workers is unknown
Tajikistan quite a few percents of out-migrants are employed legally, The Russian Federation: in 2005 only 60.000 labour out-migrants were recruited by licensed agencies within the country for work abroad. Number of work permits = foreign workers? Period of work is often not defined Remittances 37 Residence permits and temporary migrants registration, status Differences in legislation differences in definitions ( temporary and permanent residence permits , difficulties in application of the UN 12 months criteria) 90-days period Extension of stay Types of visa private business tourism study job scientific, cultural, sports, religion contacts 38 Immigration to the RF Persons 2002 Arrivals 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005 18287 20377 12834 14584
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