Steve Haeseker, Howard Schaller & Charlie Petrosky Western ...

Steve Haeseker, Howard Schaller & Charlie Petrosky Western ...

Comparative Survival Study Outcomes Experimental Spill Management Howard Schaller PSMFC Annual Meeting September 24, 2013 1 Comparative Survival Study A regional collaborative salmon and steelhead life cycle monitoring program Successfully implemented since 1998 Annually reviewed by the NPCC Independent Scientific Advisory Board and the region Analyses published in peer reviewed scientific journals History and Background Analyzed multiple lines of evidence 60- 40 years of historical run reconstruction data

15 years of Comparative Survival Study Data 15 years of spill and dissolved gas data and effects on juvenile migrants Developed spill scenarios on the basis COE data 3 NPCC Smolt-to-Adult Survival Goal-Recovery Achieve SARs averaging 4% for Snake River Chinook salmon and steelhead 4 3 SAR 2 1 0 Chinook

Observed Steelhead Observed NPCC Smolt-to-Adult Survival Goal- Recovery Achieve SARs averaging 4% for Snake River Chinook salmon and steelhead 4 3 SAR 2 1 0 Chinook Observed

Steelhead Observed Decline in Snake R. Chinook & steelhead associated with dams 3 4 5 6 7 8 dams Key Concepts: Is there evidence linking estuary and early-ocean mortality to the migration experience through the hydrosystem? DELAYED Hydrosystem MORTALITY Similar concept to smoking/lung cancer P en t

o ly l tia 8 D am s 7 Delayed Hydrosystem Mortality Multiple lines of evidence 3 fold decline in marine survival rate for Chinook 2 fold decline in marine survival rate for Steelhead CSS Workshop 2011 The evidence presented for delayed

mortality arising from earlier experience in the hydrosystem is strong and convincing. It is difficult to imagine how [other factors] would align so well both in time and space with the establishment of the hydro system. 8 Summary of 2011 Workshop Survival (in freshwater and marine) increases: faster water velocity increased spill lower % transported Current FCRPS configuration: Little ability to speed water velocity Opportunity to further manage spill combined with surface passage to reduce powerhouse passages Promising approach - management experiment to evaluate improvements to SARs by increasing voluntary spill- Adaptive Management approach Approach Weight of evidence Multiple lines of evidence for relative importance of major

factors influencing survival rates Precision & Specificity Life stage CSS SARs (Chin & Sthd) SARs (run rec. - Snake Chin & Sthd) Life cycle Spawner:recruit (Snake & John Day Chin) 3 1960 4 5 6 1965

7 1970 8dams 1975 1980 1985 1990 Environmental Contrast 1995 2000 2005 2010

Key Studies Petrosky and Schaller 2010 Spill, water velocity and ocean conditions influence SARs Haeseker et al. 2012 Spill, water velocity and ocean conditions influence SARs Over a dozen peer reviewed publications Relative Variable Importance Steelhead 5% 4% SAR 3%

2% 1% 0% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Chinook 4%

3% SAR 2% 1% 0% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Relative Variable Importance Steelhead 5% SAR 1.0 4% 0.8 3% 0.6 2% 0.4 1%

0.2 0% 1997 0.0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Chinook 4% Day

N.Spill - - Screens PDO N.Spill WTT Screens PDO + -

+ - + WTT + - 1.0 0.8 3% SAR 0.6 2% 0.4 1%

0% 1997 0.2 0.0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Day -

In-river Passage Routes Non-powerhouse = Spill (traditional or surface spillway weirs) Powerhouse = Turbine or juvenile collection/bypass (1) Spillway Direct survival: spill > bypass > turbine Reservoir Forebay Gatewell Collection channel Direct & indirect survival (delayed mortality): spill > bypass spill > turbine Forebay & Tailrace TDG monitoring

Tailrace (2) Juvenile Bypass Systems Submersible traveling screen (3) Turbine Spill Benefits Historic data has consistently shown a juvenile survival advantage. Spill is a mitigation measure that can be provided in every flow year. Spill can be provided without impact to reservoir elevations. Risk Based Spill Program Survival benefits of spill > potential TDG related mortality Adaptive Management approach-supported by empirical observations: Juvenile survival SARs

TDG effects Variability of Spill 1995-2012 5 P e r c e n t o f F is h w it h F in G B T Summary of GBT Samples (19952012) as a function of TDG 223,921 fish examined 25% 20% 15% PctFinGBT PctRank1 PctRank2 PctRank3 PctRank4 10%

7.7% 4.9% 5% 2.5% 0% 0.2% 100 to 105 0.3% 106 to 110 0.9% 0.6% 111 to 115 116 to 120

121 to 125 126 to 130 Upstream Tailwater TDGS 130 to 139 In Preparation for 2013 Workshop Develop estimates of the amount of water that could be spilled (spill caps) at each of the hydroprojects on the Lower Snake and Columbia rivers for the various scenarios modeled for the 2013 workshop. Choose representative flow years for prospective modeling. 2 Summary of 2013 Workshop Reviewed historical dissolved gas effects. Presented and reviewed draft Experimental Spill

Management Design. Evaluated four spill levels: Biological Opinion-current 115/120% - lowest increase 120% Tailrace -moderate increase 125% Tailrace - greatest increase What is experimental design? Plan for measuring response to a treatment - Treatment = increase in spill for fish passage - Response = change in survival - Plan = implement CSS monitoring methods 21 Elements of good experimental design - Large contrast (perturbation) - High precision of measured response variable - High degree of replication - Minimize and account for confounding factors

22 Summary of 2013Workshop Applied peer-reviewed models to spill levels Prospective tools integrating across river and ocean conditions Summarize distributions relative to desired goals (e.g., population viability) Undesirable 70 60 Frequency 50 40 30 20 10 -1%

0 0% 1% 2% 3% Projected SARs 4% 5% 6% 24 Prospective tools integrating across river and ocean conditions Summarize distributions relative to desired goals (e.g., NPCC SAR goals, Recovery)

Desirable 70 60 Frequency 50 40 30 20 10 -1% 0 0% 1% 2% 3%

4% 5% 6% Projected SARs 25 Chinook- Undesirable (< 1% SARS) 100% Since 98: 65% 75% 60% Probability 50% 25%

0% 125 120 115/120 BIOP Spill Treatment 26 Chinook- Desirable (> 2% SARS) 100% 75% Probability 50%

Since 98: 10% 14% 25% 0% 125 120 115/120 BIOP Spill Treatment 27 Summary of 2013Workshop Applied peer-reviewed models to spill levels Chinook salmon SAR

Steelhead 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0

125% 120% 115/120% BiOp Observed 125% 120% 115/120% BiOp Observed Summary: Definition of spill scenarios for simulations based on what appears technically possible with current FCRPS configuration Biological Planning tool indicates 125% spill level most likely to achieve SAR objectives Ongoing CSS analyses provide rigorous monitoring framework Expected benefits to Upper- & Mid-Columbia stocks These stocks provide for additional monitoring/learning Simulations are encouraging in terms of: expected response (conservation benefit) likelihood of detecting response (learning) Questions?

Recently Viewed Presentations

  • Compound Sentences

    Compound Sentences

    IC + ,CC + IC = compound sentence. IC + ; + IC = compound sentence. Uner Tan syndrome causes you to walk on all fours, and it causes you to speak in a primitive language. The first family discovered...
  • Operacijska sinergija Instrumentiranje KB  Sveti Duh Zagreb Duica

    Operacijska sinergija Instrumentiranje KB Sveti Duh Zagreb Duica

    Operacijska sinergija Instrumentiranje KB " Sveti Duh " Zagreb Dušica Lekić
  • Measurement - 3D

    Measurement - 3D

    Measurement - 3D. Right Prisms & Cylinders, Right Pyramids & Cones, Platonic Solids, Composite Figures. Table of Contents. Right Solids. Cylinders. Interior Angle of a Polygon. ... Describe the five platonic solids by face and number of polygons that meet...
  • Sonia Snail Takes Time to Tuck and Think

    Sonia Snail Takes Time to Tuck and Think

    Adapted 2012 by WestEd Teaching Pyramidfrom a scripted story to assist with teaching the "Turtle Technique" Original By Rochelle Lentini March 2005. Artwork by Alejandro Castillon, 2011 WestEd. Sonia Snail Takes Time to Tuck and Think. Teaching Pyramid. Updated January...
  • HUMAN RESOURCES recruitment training employment contracts separation  voluntary/involuntary

    HUMAN RESOURCES recruitment training employment contracts separation voluntary/involuntary

    HSC TYPE QUESTIONS. ... Describe the strategic role that human resource management has within a business and analyse this role in its interdependence with other key business functions. Rights and responsibilities of employers.
  • Dynamic Range - National Radio Astronomy Observatory

    Dynamic Range - National Radio Astronomy Observatory

    Craig Walker WHAT IS HIGH DYNAMIC RANGE IMAGING? AND WHY DO IT? Accurate imaging with a high brightness ratio. High quality imaging of strong sources Flux evolution of components Motions of components Detection of weak features Imaging of weak sources...
  • Creating Violence Free and Coercion Free Mental Health

    Creating Violence Free and Coercion Free Mental Health

    Current Assumptions Regarding Seclusion and Restraint Use Module created by Nihart, Huckshorn, LeBel 2003 *Conceptually excerpted in part from Mohr & Anderson, 2001. Assumption Restraints keep the people we serve safe Reality 142 deaths found from 1988 to 1998, reported...
  • croxfordscience.weebly.com

    croxfordscience.weebly.com

    The H+ ions in the thylakoid lumen are unable to escape except through special proteins called . ATP synthase complexes. As the H+ ions move through this complex they release energy. The complex uses some of this energy to combine...