Unit 7 DCF ANALYSIS (CHAPTER 8) ADMS 3530 2011-12 Classroom Version 1 Unit 7 Pre-work Read chapter 8 of your text 2 Unit 7 - Background Unit 6 Different investment criteria for evaluating projects: NPV is the gold standard NPV = - CF0 + CF1 (1+r)1

+ CF2 (1+r)2 + CF3 + CFn (1+r)3 (1+r)n All variables such as the cash flows (CFs) and discount rate (r) were given to us. Unit 7 We will identify the cash flows (CFs) used for NPV calculations. This process is called discounted cash flow (or DCF) analysis or capital budgeting. 3

Unit 7 - Outline Module 7.1 Identifying Relevant Cash Flows Module 7.2 Basic Steps in DCF Analysis Module 7.3 - Review of Depreciation and CCA Module 7.4 - Present Value of CCA Tax Shields Module 7.5 - Putting It All Together a DCF Example Module 7.6 - Summary 4 7.1 Identifying Relevant Cash Flows There are 9 Basic Rules for Identifying Relevant Cash Flows for DCF Analysis: Rule 1: Discount cash flows, not accounting profits.

Recognize expenses and revenues as they occur, not later when they show up for accounting purposes. You have to be especially careful to ignore non-cash items such as depreciation and accruals. 5 7.1 Identifying Relevant Cash Flows Rule 2: Discount incremental cash flows Incremental Cash flows = Cash flows with the project Cash flows without the project Rule 3: Include all indirect effects

Bad indirect effect a new product damages sales of the firms existing product. Good indirect effect the additional parts and maintenance revenues that the sale of a new engine would provide to an aircraft manufacturer 6 7.1 Identifying Relevant Cash Flows Rule 4: Forget sunk costs All historical costs are sunk costs and will remain the same whether the project is accepted or rejected. Therefore, they should not be included in a projects cash flows.

Rule 5: Include opportunity costs Opportunity costs are benefits or cash flows foregone as the result of going ahead with a project. Example: the market value (not cost base) of land that is owned by a company who is evaluating whether or not to build a new plant, should be included in the DCF analysis. 7 7.1 Identifying Relevant Cash Flows Rule 6: Include the investment in net working capital Net working capital = shortterm assets short-term liabilities. Short term assets include cash, accounts receivables and inventories.

Short-term liabilities include notes payable and accounts payable. Investments (or increases) in net working capital (e.g., if inventories are being increased), are just like investments in plant and equipment, result in cash outflows. 8 7.1 Identifying Relevant Cash Flows Example: Net Working Capital What is the net effect on a firms working capital if a new project requires: $30,000 increase in inventory, $10,000 increase in accounts

receivable, $25,000 increase in machinery, and $20,000 increase in accounts payable? Solution Change in working capital is: = increase in accounts receivable + increase in inventory increase in accounts payable = $10,000 + $30,000 - $20,000 = $20,000. This $20,000 is a net increase which is a cash outflow and must be included in project analysis. (Note: the $25,000 increase in machinery is a capital cost - not a working capital item, and is omitted from the calculation!) 9 7.1 Identifying Relevant Cash Flows Rule 7: Be aware of allocated overhead costs You should Include only extra overhead expenses that result from a project

Rule 8: Discount nominal cash flows by the nominal interest rate. If using real cash flows, discount by the real interest rate. 10 7.1 Identifying Relevant Cash Flows Rule 9: Separate Investment and financing decisions. First assess a project as if it were all-equity financed. Do not include any interest or debt payments incurred as a result of project financing. (We will learn the logic behind this reasoning in Unit 11). 11

7.1 Review Question Question 1 A firm is considering an investment in a new manufacturing plant. The site is already owned by the company but existing buildings would need to be demolished. Which of the following should be treated as incremental cash flows? i) The market value of the site. ii) The market value of the existing buildings. iii) Demolition costs and site clearance to be incurred. iv) The cost of a new access road put in last year. v) Lost cash flows on other projects due to executive time spent on the new facility. vi) Future depreciation of the new plant. A) i, ii, and iii only B) ii, ii, iii and iv only C) i, ii, iii and v only D) All of the above 12 7.1 Review Question

This correct answer is C. iv) the cost of a new access road incurred last year is a historical or sunk cost and should be excluded. vi) future deprecation of the new plant is a non-cash item and should be excluded. The other items are incremental cash flows and should be included in project analysis. 13 7.1 Review Question Question 2 Allocations of overhead should not affect a project's incremental cash flows unless the: A) project actually increased overhead expenses. B) overhead cannot be recovered at the end of the project. C) overhead cannot be allocated to other projects. D) accountant is required to allocate costs to this project.

Please choose the correct answer. 14 7.1 Review Question The correct answer is A. You should Include only extra overhead expenses that result from a project 15 7.2 Basic Steps in DCF Analysis Step 1. Identify all relevant project cash flows (Module 7.1) Step 2: Separate the cash flows into 4 main categories: i. Plant & Equipment (this is usually CF0), ii. Net working Capital, iii. Cash Flow from Operations (most difficult part!) iv. Salvage Value

Step 3: Determine the cost of capital (we will do this in Unit 10) Step 4: Discount all relevant cash flows Step 5. Find NPV and if NPV>0 then proceed with the project 16 7.2 Basic Steps in DCF Analysis Step 2: Finding Cash Flow from Operations (CFop) Method 1: CFop = revenues cash expenses taxes paid Method 2: CFop = net profit (after-tax) + depreciation Method 3: CFop = (revenues cash expenses) (1 t) + (depr. t) (note: t is the corporate tax rate) All 3 methods will give you the same answer! 17 7.2 Basic Steps in DCF Analysis

Note on Deprecation: Recall from Module 7.1: We do not include depreciation in our project cash flows (as it is a noncash item). We need to add it back to our cash flow number if we are trying to calculate our cash flows from accounting income (where it has been deducted). However because we are allowed to use deprecation (or CCA) to reduce our taxes payable, depreciation savings do affect cash flow and we do have to incorporate this tax savings which is called the CCA tax shield. 18 7.2 Basic Steps in DCF Analysis Step 2 Example:

Calculating Cash Flow from Operations (using accounting data) Method 1: CFop = 200 - 100 - 36 = $64 Method 2: CFop = 44 + 20 = $64 Method 3: CFop = (200-100) x (1- .45) + (20 x .45) = $64 Note: All 3 methods produce the same answer! 19 Revenues 200 Cash Expenses -100

Depreciation -20 Pre-tax Profit 80 Taxes @ 45% -36 Profit After Tax 44 7.2 Review Question Question What is the amount of the operating cash flow for a firm with

$750,000 profit before tax, $150,000 depreciation expense, and a 35% marginal tax rate? A) $262,500 B) $487,500 C) $554,500 D) $637,500 Please choose the correct answer. 20 7.2 Review Question The correct answer is D. Method 2: CFop = net profit (after-tax) + depreciation = $750,000 x (1 - 35%) + $150,000 = $637,500 21 7.3 Review of Depreciation & CCA

Depreciation a non-cash expense that reduces the value of an asset as a result of wear and tear, age, or obsolescence. Reflects the declining value of their assets over time. CCA - Capital Cost Allowance a specific type of depreciation expense that the CRA allows when businesses calculate taxable income (and hence their tax returns). There are over 30 categories or CCA asset classes. We will use the terms CCA and depreciation interchangeably from this point on. 22 7.3 Review of Depreciation & CCA NOTE: Although CCA itself is a non-cash charge, it does affect cash flow to the extent that it reduces taxes paid Those

tax savings must be included in the capital budgeting decision. This tax savings is also called the CCA tax shield or depreciation tax shield. 23 7.3 Review of Depreciation & CCA There are two main methods of calculating CCA and accounting depreciation: 1. Straight-line Depreciation 2. Declining Balance Depreciation 1. Straight-line Depreciation assumes the asset will lose an equal amount of value each year. (except for the half-year rule, which we will discuss shortly)

= [Purchase Price Salvage value] /est. useful life of the asset It is essentially an annuity series in that the same dollar amount of depreciation is expensed each year, Used for leasehold improvements, patents, and a few other assets classes 24 7.3 Review of Depreciation & CCA 2. Declining Balance Depreciation used for most asset classes the same percentage is applied to the undepreciated asset value.

= the Class % rate x the Declining asset balance amount (see p.253 text) Note: you will be told in the problem whether you have to use declining balance or straight-line deprecitaion. 25 7.3 Review of Depreciation & CCA Other CCA terms: Half-Year Rule In an assets first year of purchase, only one-half of the purchase cost can be used to calculate CCA (regardless of what part of the year the asset was purchased).

This rule was designed to stop companies from purchasing assets in December and then expensing CCA for the whole year. 26 7.3 Review of Depreciation & CCA Other CCA terms: A company is entitled to CCA as long as it owns at least one asset in the asset class. Q: What happens when the company disposes of its entire pool of assets in that asset class? A: We end up with Terminal Loss or Recaptured Depreciation (but you do not need to know these terms for this course!)

27 7.3 Review of Depreciation & CCA Depreciation Example 1 We need to include the tax savings or the CCA tax shield in DCF Analysis: With depreciation (CCA) Revenues 100 Cash Expenses -50 Depreciation (CCA)

-20 Pre-Tax Profit Note the firms Net Profit after Tax is higher ($30 versus $18) when it does not have depreciation. Income Taxes @ 40% Profit After Tax -12 18 With no depreciation Revenues 100 Cash Expenses

-50 Pre-Tax Profit Income Taxes @ 40% Profit After Tax 28 30 50 -20 30 7.3 Review of Depreciation & CCA Depreciation Example 1 29

Cash Flow OP calculation (method 1) With depreciation (CCA) Profit After-Tax 18 Note when we calculate CFop, where we have depreciation, the Cash Flow number is higher ($38 versus $30). This is because the depreciation expense (although a non-cash items) shields our income from taxes (which are a cash number). Cash Expenses -50

Income Taxes paid -12 This savings in cash taxes payable ($20-$12 = $8) is called the depreciation or CCA Tax Shield. Cash Expenses It can be calculated using a short-cut formula, as shown in the next slide Cash Flow op Cash Flow op 38 With no depreciation

Revenues Income Taxes paid 100 50 -20 30 7.3 Review of Depreciation & CCA The value of the CCA Tax Shield in any one year: = CCA Amount x Tax rate In the previous example, the CCA tax shield in year one is = $20 (the CCA amount) x 40% tax rate = $8 in taxes is saved because of depreciation. Be careful! Do not mix up the CCA amount and CCA Tax Shield 30

7.3 Review of Depreciation & CCA Example 2: CCA Tax Shield You are considering investing in a piece of equipment. The equipment has an initial cost of $125 and belongs in a 20% CCA class. Assume a 34% tax bracket and a salvage value of zero. The half-year rule applies. What is the value of the annual CCA tax shield for year 2 of the project? Solution: Year Net Acquisition UCC end 1 112.50 2 90.00 $125 $0 UCC start

CCA Amount 125.00 12.50 112.50 22.50 (1/2 yr rule!) However, we are not finished yet! CCA tax shield (tax saving ) in year 2 = CCA2 x tax rate = 22.50 x 34% = $7.65 31 7.3 Review Question Question Jensen Industries is considering purchasing a new Drilling

Press. The press costs $100,000, and belongs to a 15% CCA rate asset class (declining balance method) and the half-year rule applies. If the tax rate is 40%, what is the amount of the CCA tax shield in year 1? A) $3000 B) $6000 C) $7,500 D) $15,000 Please choose the correct answer. 32 7.3 Review Question The correct answer is A. The amount of CCA in year 1 is 15% x $100,000 x1/2 = $7,500 The CCA tax shield for year 1 = $7,500 x 40% = $3,000 33 7.4 Present Value of CCA Tax

Shields So far we have calculated: CCA tax shield for a single year but most projects we will last many years. We will have a tax shield or tax saving for every year of the project. And we have to discount these tax shields. So.we need to calculate the present value of all the CCA tax shields over the projects life, or the PVCCATS (Present Value of the CCA Tax Shields) 34 7.4 Present Value of CCA Tax Shields Recall from Module 7.3 - 2 main methods of calculating depreciation 1.

Straight-line 2. Declining balance. (The method used will depend on which asset class the asset you are depreciating falls into.) Calculating PVCCATS: Straight-line depreciation is easy -> finding the PV of an annuity! Declining balance depreciation much more complicated! 35

7.4 Present Value of CCA Tax Shields Example 1- Finding PVCCATS for Straight-line depreciation Calculate the annual depreciation and PVCCATS for an asset (such as a trademark) costing $200,000 and a $20,000 salvage value at the end of year 10. The asset falls into a straight-line depreciation class. The firm has a 40% tax rate and a 12% discount rate. The firms project is expected to last 10 years. Solution: Ignoring the half-year rule, the annual amount of CCA expense is = $200,000 - $20,000 (Salvage value)/10 years = $18,000 every year And the annual CCA tax shield is: = $18,000 x 40% or $$7,200. 36 7.4 Present Value of CCA Tax Shields

Example 1- Finding PVCCATS for Straight-line depreciation (cont.) Ignoring the half-year rule! Annual CCA amount = $18,000 Annual CCA tax shield = $7200 we are dealing with an annuity. Now find PVCCATS: Using your calculator: PMT = $7,200, - =12, n=10, FV=0, COMP PV PV = $40,681.16 This is the PV of the CCA Tax Shields over the projects life. 37 7.4 Present Value of CCA Tax Shields Example 2: Finding PVCCATS for Declining Balance Method Calculate the annual CCA amount and PVCCATS for an asset costing $200,000 and a $20,000 salvage value at the end of year 10. The asset falls into a 10% declining balance depreciation method class. The firm has a 40% tax rate and a 12% discount

rate. The firms project is expected to last 10 years. This table just shows the CCA amount and the CCA tax shield for only the first 2 years (remember we are ignoring the half-year rule) for simplicity! Year UCC start tax shield x 40%) 1 200,000 $8,000 2 180,000 $7,200 CCA @10% UCC end CCA (CCA

20,000 18,000 180,000 162,000 Note: The annual CCA tax shields are different! (not an annuity series). To find the PV of the tax shields over many years, 38we have 7.4 Present Value of CCA Tax Shields If you have declining balance method of CCA: The PVCCATS = [ CdTc 1 0.5r SdTc 1 ][

] [ ][ ] t r d 1 r d r (1 r ) where: C = capital cost of an asset acquired at beginning of year 1 d = CCA rate for the asset class to which the asset belongs Tc = corporate tax rate r = discount rate S = salvage amount from the sale of the asset at the end of year t Note: do not mix up d and r ! And yes! This is a shortcut to having to work out each years CCA and the present value of each years CCA! 39 7.4 Present Value of CCA Tax

Shields Example 3: Calculating PVCCATS for a declining balance asset What is the PVCCATS for a firm with a 10% discount rate and in the 35% tax bracket if it purchased a $50,000 asset and the CCA rate is 15%? The half-year rule applies and assume no salvage value. Solution: First identify your variables: d= 0.15 r = 0.10 Tc = 0.35 C = 50,00 S=0 40 7.4 Present Value of CCA Tax Shields Solution Example 3: First identify your variables and then input them into the

long PVCCATS formula as shown below. (Note if S=0, the second half of the equation goes to zero!) CdTc 1 0.5r SdTc 1 [ ][ ] [ ][ ] PVCCATS = t r d 1 r d r (1 r ) PVCCATS = {[50,000 x .15 x .35] / (.10 +.15)} x [(1 + .5 x .10)/(1.10)] - 0 = [ 2,625 / 0.25]

x = 10,500 0.954545 x [1.05 / 1.10] = $10,022.73 41 7.4 Present Value of CCA Tax Shields Q: Why we have to calculate the PVCCATS? A: It is one of the cash flows affecting a projects NPV. If you have a declining balance asset class, then you will most likely be forced into Method 3 of calculating CFop as

we saw in Module 7.2: CFop = (revenues cash expenses) (1 Tc) + (CCA Tc) Where (CCA Tc) = CCA tax shield and you need to calculate the PV of these tax shields (the PVCCATS) when calculating the projects NPV! 42 7.4 Review Question Question Jensen Industries is considering purchasing a new printing press that costs $100,000, and belongs to a 15% CCA rate asset class (declining balance method) and the half-year rule applies. Assume there is zero salvage value. The discount rate is 10% and the tax rate is 40%. What is the present value of Jensens CCA tax shield? A) $5,367 B) $11,667 C) $19,419

D) $22,909 43 7.4 Review Question The correct answer is D. Identify your variables and input them into the PVCCATS formula: $100,000015% 40% PVCCATS 10% 15% 1 0.5 10% 1 10% $22,909. 44 7.5 Putting it all Together A DCF

Example Review: NPV = - CF0 + CF1 + CF2 (1+r)1 (1+r)2 + CF3 + CFn (1+r)3 (1+r)n This unit which cash flows (CFs)should be included? The cash flows can be broken down into 4 categories: 1. Plant & Equipment, 2.

Net working Capital, 3. Cash Flow from Operations = CFop (which includes PVCCATS) 4. Salvage Value. 45 7.5 Putting it all Together A DCF Example Review (cont.) For Cash Flow from Operations, there are 3 methods to calculate it: Method 1: CFop = revenues cash expenses taxes paid

Method 2: CFop = net profit (after-tax) + depreciation Method 3: CFop = (revenues cash expenses) (1 T c) + (CCA Tc) Notes: 1. These formulas just give us CFop for a single year and we must take the present value of each annual CFop to find NPV for the project. 2. If we have declining balance depreciation then we are usually forced into Method 3 where we calculate CFop without depreciation and then add back the depreciation tax shield separately. 46 7.5 Putting it all Together A DCF Example Comprehensive Example DCF Analysis Bleeper Industries is considering a project which costs $100,000 and produces after-tax operating cash flows

(excluding CCA tax shields) of $23,000 per year for six years. The project requires a $5,000 increase in net working capital in Year 0; the working capital is recovered in Year 7, one year after the end of the operating cash flows. The CCA rate is 15% (declining balance method) and the half-year rule applies. Initially assume there is zero salvage value. The discount rate is 14% and the tax rate is 40%. 47 7.5 Putting it all Together A DCF Example Comprehensive Example DCF Analysis A) What is Bleepers total cash flow in Year 0, excluding CCA tax shields? Solution: CF0 = -100,000 -5,000 = -$105,000 (Note: both the outlay for the project and the increase in net working capital must be included for year 0.) B) What is Bleepers CCA in Year 1?

Solution: CCA amount in year 1 = 100,000 x 15% x = $7,500 (Note: dont forget the half-year rule!) 48 7.5 Putting it all Together A DCF Example Comprehensive Example DCF Analysis (cont.) C) What is the present value of Bleepers operating cash flows, excluding CCA tax shields? Solution: We are dealing with an annuity and can use our calculator to solve: Input; PMT = $23,000, n=6, i=14%, COMP PV PV= $89,439.35 Note: in this example our CFop ($23,000) were already after-tax so we did not have to adjust them for taxes. 49

7.5 Putting it all Together A DCF Example Comprehensive Example DCF Analysis (cont.) D) What is the present value of Bleepers working capital recovery, which occurs in Year 7? Solution: We will recover the $5000 increase in net working capital at the end of year 7, PV working capital recovery = 5000 (1.14)7 = $1998.19 50 7.5 Putting it all Together A DCF Example Comprehensive Example DCF Analysis (cont.)

E) What is the present value of Bleepers CCA tax shield? Solution: Since we are dealing with a declining balance asset class, we have to use the long PVCCATS formula: Where PVCCATS = [ CdTc 1 0.5r SdTc 1 ][ ] [ ][ ] t r d 1 r d r (1 r )

= $19,419 51 7.5 Putting it all Together A DCF Example Comprehensive Example DCF Analysis (cont.) F) Should Bleeper accept the project? Solution: Now we put all of our discounted cash flows together: ->Initial outlay + PV [CFop] +PV[working capital recovery] + PVCCATS NPV = -105,000 + 89,439.35 +1998.19 + 19,419 = $5,865.54 Since NPV > 0, yes! Bleeper should go ahead with the project. 52 7.5 Putting it all Together A DCF

Example Comprehensive Example DCF Analysis (cont.) G) By how much will the NPV increase if Bleeper is able to obtain a $10,000 salvage value at the end of Year 6? (instead of zero) Solution: Salvage comes into play in 2 ways! 1. The salvage value received at the end of the project is a positive cash inflow which must be discounted back to time zero. PV Salvage Value = 10,000 / (1.14)6 = 4,555.87 2. Since S is no longer zero, we must recalculate the PVCCATS formula New PVCCATS = 19,419 942.59 =18,476.41 (try it yourself!) NPV will change: 4,555,87 + (18,476.41 - 19,419)= $3613.28 increase in NPV. 53 7.5 Review Question Big Question!

Your firm is considering investing in a supercomputer to implement a new revolutionary web service. The pre-tax cash flow (excluding CCA tax shields) is expected to be $18 million for each of the 10 years of the project's life. The equipment has an initial cost of $85 million and belongs in a 45% CCA class. Assume a 30% tax bracket, a discount rate of 12%,and a salvage value of $35 million. We assume that the firm will still have equipment in the same CCA class and that the half-year rule applies. What is the projects NPV? A) $11.27 million B) $13.85 million C) $31.24 million D) $71.19 million 54 7.5 Review Question The correct answer is B! 1. The PV of the after-tax cash flows (excluding CCA tax shields) over the life of the project is: $71.19 million 2. The PV of the CCA tax shield in the presence of the halfyear rule is: $16.38 million (Use PVCCATS formula!)

3. The PV of the salvage is: $35/(1+0.12)10 = 11.27 million Project NPV = $(-85 + 71.19 + 16.38 + 11.27) = $13.85 million! Co 55 7.6 Summary Financial managers evaluate potential projects for a firm. In Unit 6 we learned that NPV is the single best rule to use when evaluating projects, as a company will maximize shareholder wealth by accepting all projects that have a positive NPV. NPV = - CF0 + CF1 (1+r)1

+ CF2 (1+r)2 + CF3 + CFn (1+r)3 (1+r)n In this unit, we learned to identify which cash flows (whether they are cash inflows or outflows) belong in project analysis. Identifying the cash flows + discounting them for NPV calcs. = Discounted cash flow (or DCF) analysis. = Capital Budgeting.

56 7.6 Summary DCF Analysis Only include incremental cash flows (not accounting profits) in the numerator and also how to include working capital, salvage and CCA tax shields into our analysis. CCA does make the analysis more complicated especially if declining balance method applies. If you are having trouble with this Unit, try to attend one of the Help sessions or final exam review sessions. In the next unit, we will expand on Project Analysis by trying to figure out how sensitive the project NPV is if our

estimates of the cash flows vary. 57 Unit 7 - Recommended Problems In addition to the Progress Quiz for Unit 7, you should attempt the following Ch. 8 problems from your text: #s 3, 5, 11, 18, 20, 25, 27 Also, you should download and print out the Final Exam Formula Sheet found under the Other Course Materials folder on the course website. 58 End of Unit 7 59