Water Supply - Ammannato

Water Supply - Ammannato

1 Western Snowpack and Water Supply Perspectives Phil Pasteris Supervisory Meteorologist Natural Resources Conservation Service United States Department of Agriculture National Water and Climate Center http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov [email protected] Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 Snow Survey / Water Supply Forecast Program

J. E. Church 1909 Mt. Rose, Nevada 1935, Principles of Snow Surveying as Applied to Forecasting Stream Flow, Journal of Agricultural Research NRCS Activities 1935 - SCS officially began snow survey and water supply forecasting in the western U.S. and Alaska

PL 74-46 Soil Conservation Act Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 2 Snow Survey Program Activities

Lead the Cooperative Snow Survey Program in 12 western states Operate the SNOTEL network 704 sites Coordinate the cooperative manual snow survey program 922 manual sites Train snow surveyors in proper snow survey techniques and survival in remote areas Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 3

SNOTEL Network Wind 1974 - Congress authorized and funded the SNOTEL system to automate remote sensing of the snowpack information Reports daily snow water equivalent, precipitation, snow depth, temperature and other parameters as

needed. Air Temp 4 Solar Radiation Relative Humidity Snow Depth Snow Water Equivalent A typical Mountain SNOTEL station

Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 SNOTEL Site Locations Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 5 Mt. Rose, NV SNOTEL Site Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 6 Meteor Burst Technology

Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 7 Water Supply Forecasting 717 total WSF points, 499 are produced NRCS Joint activity with National Weather Service

~11,000 WSF issued in FY2004 20 NRCS WSF points in Washington Over 58,000 unique user accesses to WSF in April 2004 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005

8 SS-WSF Personnel State Data Collection Offices AK, CO, ID, MT, OR, UT State Water Supply

Specialists AZ, CA, NV, NM, WA, WY NWCC Staff at Portland, OR Program Liaison in Washington, DC Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 9 PNW Snow Survey / WSF Team 10

Oregon Data Collection Office Jon Lea, Snow Survey Supervisor, 503-414-3267 Sheila Strachan, Hydrologist, 503-414-3272 Rashawn Tama-Sweet, Hydrologist, 503-414-3268 Bill Overman, Hydrologic Technician, 503-414-3269 Melissa Webb, Hydrologic Technician, 503-414-3270 Scott Pattee, Water Supply Specialist, 360-428-7684 2021 E. College Way, Suite 214 Mt. Vernon, WA 98273 [email protected] Water Supply Hydrologists - NWCC Washington Cascades, Oregon, California, Jolyne Lea, 503-414-3040

Washington, Columbia Basin, Tom Perkins, 503-414-3059 Montana, Colorado, Jennifer Erxleben, 503-414-3033 Southwest, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Tom Pagano, 503-4143010 Modeling Hydrologist, David Garen, 503-414-3021 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 Water Year 2005

11 Washington Governor declares statewide drought emergency. $12 mil in funding sought. Oregon Governor declares drought emergency in Klamath Basin. What IS going on this year? Extremes in the north (dry) and in the south (wet) The best of times, the worst of times? Impacts on the ski industry. How does it compare to 2001 and 1977 in the PNW? Whats the spring and summer water supply forecast?

What about next water year? Is this a flash drought? Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 March 1, 2005 / 2001 Snowpacks Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 12 Statistical Snowpack Ranking

157 of 471 SNOTEL sites westwide with 20+ years of record rank in the lowest 5% (PNW) 17 of 471 SNOTEL sites rank in the highest 5% (Southwest, Great Basin) 25 Washington SNOTEL sites set record low snowpacks for March 15 30 Washington SNOTEL sites in the lowest 5%

ranking Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 13 Washington SNOTEL Sites Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 14 SNOTEL Station Comparisons Elbow Lake 3,200 3/19/2005

3/19/2001 SWE 1 / PRCP 78 | SWE 20 / PRCP 55 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 15 SNOTEL Station Comparisons Rainy Pass 4,780 3/19/2005 3/19/2001 SWE 12 / PRCP 28 | SWE 20 / PRCP 20

Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 16 SNOTEL Station Comparisons Stevens Pass 4,070 3/19/2005 3/19/2001 SWE 8 / PRCP 48 | SWE 20 / PRCP 25 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 17

SNOTEL Station Comparisons White Pass 4,500 3/19/2005 3/19/2001 SWE 1 / PRCP 15 | SWE 11 / PRCP 13 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 18 SNOTEL Station Comparisons Corral Pass 6,000 3/19/2005

3/19/2001 SWE 9 / PRCP 20 | SWE 17 / PRCP 20 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 19 SNOTEL Station Comparisons Paradise 5,120 3/19/2005 3/19/2001 SWE 22 / PRCP 48 | SWE 35 / PRCP 45

Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 20 Snowpack Projection Corral Pass 6,000 21 Snow Water Equivalent 70 Normal WYTD Max

90% 70% 50% 30% 10% Min 60 50 40 30 20 10 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005

1-Sep 1-Aug 1-Jul 1-Jun 1-May 1-Apr 1-Mar 1-Feb

1-Jan 1-Dec 1-Nov 1-Oct 0 Precipitation Projection Corral Pass 6,000 22 Accumulated Precipitation

100 Normal WYTD Max 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% Min 90 80 70 60

50 40 30 20 10 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 1-Sep 1-Aug 1-Jul 1-Jun

1-May 1-Apr 1-Mar 1-Feb 1-Jan 1-Dec 1-Nov 1-Oct

0 March 1, 1977 Water Supply Forecast Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 23 March 1, 2005 / 2001 Water Supply Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 24 NRCS / NWS WSF Points

NRCS Blue NWS Red Joint Yellow Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 25 Cle Elum Lake Inflow WSF Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 26

Salmon Crk. Conconully Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 27 Skagit Basin WSF Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 28 White / Green River WSF Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005

29 Lewis / Cowlitz WSF Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 30 March 1, 2005 / 2001 Reservoir Storage 129% of Average Capacity 43% of Average Capacity Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005

31 March 1, 2005 / 2001 Reservoir Storage 2001 Reservoirs BUMPING LAKE CLE ELUM KACHESS KEECHELUS RIMROCK CONCONULLY RESERVOIR SALMON LAKE 2005 Additional Reservoirs Ross Chelan Diablo

Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 32 Cle Elum Storage: Above Average Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 33 Lurking in Southwest WA... Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 34

Closing Thoughts You can observe a lot just by watchin'. The future aint what is used to be. Yogi Berra Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 35 Closing Thoughts We need to learn to manage climate impacts.

Maintain a robust climate observation network at all elevations. Integrate water supply forecasts with risk-based water management decision models. Enhance existing technology to deliver risk-based products directly to users in near real-time. Snowpack analysis, volume forecasts, special indexes (SWSI, Drought Monitor, etc.) Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005 36 Thank You Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington March 21, 2005

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